2929\authorrunning {S. Wittmann et al.}
3030
3131\institute {
32- TODO FAU \" at Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany\\
32+ Friedrich-Alexander-Universit \" at Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany\\
3333 \email {\{ sim.wittmann,boolean.kraus,bastian.wiesner\} @fau.de}
3434}
3535
@@ -150,8 +150,9 @@ \section{Introduction}
150150 $ (\theta _p, \theta _r, t_s)$ policy space, converging within at most ten
151151 iterations.
152152 \item A comprehensive empirical study covering two state-of-the-art models
153- across five grid regions and multi-year replay, establishing the first
154- systematic Pareto frontiers for carbon-aware LLM training.
153+ across five grid regions and multi-year replay, establishing systematic
154+ Pareto frontiers, to the best of our knowledge, for
155+ carbon-aware LLM training.
155156 \item An actionable design rule: the optimal hysteresis policy uses a
156157 narrow margin ($ \theta _p - \theta _r \leq 16 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh). Wide
157158 hysteresis is never Pareto-optimal.
@@ -166,7 +167,7 @@ \section{Introduction}
166167 Wiesner~et~al.~\cite {wiesner_lets_2021 } demonstrated that delaying cloud
167168 batch jobs by a few hours to align with periods of low carbon intensity can
168169 reduce operational emissions by 3--34\% \footnote {Experimental range
169- in~\cite {wiesner_lets_2021 }: nightly jobs 3--34\% , ML project scenarios
170+ in~\cite {wiesner_lets_2021 }: nightly jobs 3--34\% , ML project scenarios
170171 3--19\% .}, depending on job duration and
171172 regional grid profile. Their `` let's wait awhile'' approach uses a
172173 pause-resume semantics similar to ours but targets generic cloud workloads
@@ -202,33 +203,40 @@ \section{Introduction}
202203 \paragraph {Our distinction. }
203204 While each prior work advances carbon-aware computing, none provides a
204205 systematic policy parameter optimization framework for single-site LLM
205- training. We contribute the first characterization of the $ (\theta _p,
206- \theta _r, t_s)$ design space, the first quantification of the hysteresis
206+ training. We contribute a characterization of the $ (\theta _p,
207+ \theta _r, t_s)$ design space, a quantification of the hysteresis
207208 margin trade-off, and a practical optimization method applicable to any
208209 training configuration.
209210
210211 \begin {table }[t]
211212 \centering
212- \caption {Comparison of carbon savings with prior workload shifting approaches.}
213+ \caption {Comparison of carbon savings with prior workload
214+ shifting approaches.}
213215 \label {tab:comparison }
214216 \small
215217 \begin {tabular }{lcc}
216218 \toprule
217219 Study & Approach & Savings \\
218220 \midrule
219221 Wiesner et al.~\cite {wiesner_lets_2021 }
220- & Temporal shifting, generic cloud jobs
221- & 3--34\% $ ^\dagger $ \\
222+ & Temporal shifting, generic cloud jobs
223+ & 3--34\% $ ^\dagger $ \\
222224 Wiesner et al.~\cite {wiesner_distributed_2026 }
223- & Geo-distributed, curtailment windows
224- & 88--95\% $ ^\ddagger $ \\
225+ & Geo-distributed, curtailment windows
226+ & 88--95\% $ ^\ddagger $ \\
225227 This work
226- & Temporal hysteresis, frontier LLMs
227- & 2--43\% $ ^\S $ \\
228+ & Temporal hysteresis, frontier LLMs
229+ & 2--43\% $ ^\S $ \\
228230 \bottomrule
229- \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small $ ^\dagger $ Negligible checkpoint overhead enables higher savings across diverse regions.} \\
230- \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small $ ^\ddagger $ Multi-site spatial shifting exploits near-zero-carbon curtailment energy. Residual emissions: 5--12\% of baselines.} \\
231- \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small $ ^\S $ Single-site; checkpoint/idle overhead caps savings (multi-year avg.: 3--20\% ).} \\
231+ \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small
232+ $ ^\dagger $ Negligible checkpoint overhead enables higher savings
233+ across diverse regions.} \\
234+ \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small
235+ $ ^\ddagger $ Multi-site spatial shifting exploits
236+ near-zero-carbon curtailment energy. Residual emissions:
237+ 5--12\% of baselines.} \\
238+ \multicolumn {3}{@{}p{\textwidth }@{}}{\small $ ^\S $ Single-site;
239+ checkpoint/idle overhead caps savings (multi-year avg.: 3--20\% ).} \\
232240 \end {tabular }
233241 \end {table }
234242
@@ -369,7 +377,9 @@ \section{Introduction}
369377 axis per iteration remains fixed. If the contracted interval on any axis
370378 falls below $ 3 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh, search on that axis terminates.
371379 \item {\bf Iteration.} Steps 2--3 repeat for a maximum of $ K = 10 $
372- iterations, or until all axes reach minimum step size.
380+ iterations. The shrink factor $ s=0.45 $ ensures that after
381+ approximately six iterations the search window contracts below
382+ the minimum step of $ 3 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh.
373383 \end {enumerate }
374384
375385 The algorithm guarantees a feasible point (the initial grid always contains
@@ -378,7 +388,10 @@ \section{Introduction}
378388 with our settings ($ K=10 , N=10 , D=7 $ for start-date experiments, $ D=1 $ for
379389 fixed-date runs), a full optimization evaluates approximately 3,500
380390 candidate policies (550 for fixed-start runs), completing in under one
381- minute on a single CPU core.
391+ minute on a single CPU core. The optimizer converges within 5--6
392+ iterations in all (model, region) combinations; subsequent
393+ iterations yield no measurable improvement
394+ ($ \Delta \text {score}\leq 2 \times 10 ^{-5}$ ).
382395
383396 % ============================================================
384397 % 6. Experimental Setup
@@ -394,19 +407,28 @@ \section{Introduction}
394407 substantially different scales.
395408
396409 \paragraph {Hardware constants. }
397- GPU training power: 700~W. GPU idle power: 60~W. PUE: 1.27. Checkpoint
398- pause: 148.8~s. Checkpoint resume: 0~s (asynchronous).
410+ GPU training power: 700~W (NVIDIA H800 TDP~\cite {h800_specs }). GPU idle
411+ power: 60~W (estimated). PUE: 1.27 (DeepSeek DGX H800 infrastructure
412+ data~\cite {jegham_hungry_2025 }). Checkpoint pause: 148.8~s (PyTorch
413+ Distributed synchronous checkpoint, 7B model~\cite {pytorch_checkpoint }).
414+ Checkpoint resume: 0~s (asynchronous checkpoint I/O).
399415
400416 \paragraph {Regions and data. }
401417 Five regions per Table~\ref {tab:grid }. Four complete years (2022--2025) of
402418 5-minute-resolution marginal carbon intensity from Electricity Maps.
403419
404420 \paragraph {Optimizer settings. }
405- Resolution $ N=10 $ , iterations $ K=10 $ , budget $ B=200 \% $ , shrink factor
421+ Resolution $ N=10 $ , iterations $ K=10 $ , budget $ B=800 \% $ ($ 200 \% $ for
422+ DeepSeek-US), shrink factor
406423 $ s=0.45 $ , minimum step $ 3 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh, $ \alpha =1.0 $ (pure savings
407- objective within budget). Start-date resolution: 1 sample (Jan~1) for
424+ objective within budget). Start-date resolution: 1 sample (Jan~1) for
408425 fixed-date runs, 7 samples per year for start-date optimization.
409426
427+ Most experiments use an overhead budget of $ B=800 \% $ to ensure feasible
428+ policies exist across all (model, region) combinations; DeepSeek-US uses
429+ $ B=200 \% $ reflecting different initial bounds. The composite score (Eq.~3)
430+ normalizes by budget, keeping scores comparable.
431+
410432 % ============================================================
411433 % 7. Results
412434 % ============================================================
@@ -430,9 +452,15 @@ \section{Introduction}
430452 \centering
431453 \includegraphics [width=\textwidth ]{savings_vs_overhead_all}
432454 \caption {
433- Combined Pareto frontiers for DeepSeek~V3 and Kimi~K2 across five
434- regions. Each point represents a feasible policy. Best-score points
435- within the 200\% overhead budget are highlighted.
455+ Combined Pareto frontiers for DeepSeek~V3 (2048 GPUs) and
456+ Kimi~K2 (min.~256 GPU group) across five grid regions (DE, IT,
457+ SE, US, CN). Each point represents one feasible policy
458+ configuration $ (\theta _p, \theta _r, t_s)$ evaluated via
459+ discrete-event simulation replaying 2025 carbon intensity data
460+ at 5-minute resolution. Best-score points within the 200\%
461+ overhead budget are highlighted as stars. Regional ranking
462+ follows grid variability (CV): DE (CV=0.37) achieves up to
463+ 43.4\% savings; CN (CV=0.11) yields under 10\% .
436464 }
437465 \label {fig:pareto }
438466 \end {figure }
@@ -493,10 +521,14 @@ \section{Introduction}
493521 \centering
494522 \includegraphics [width=\textwidth ]{threshold_space_overview}
495523 \caption {
496- Threshold space: $ \theta _p$ vs.\ $ \theta _r$ for all evaluated policies,
497- colored by score. The diagonal $ \theta _r = \theta _p$ represents
498- zero-hysteresis policies. High-scoring configurations cluster near the
499- diagonal across all regions and models.
524+ Threshold space: pause threshold $ \theta _p$ vs.\ resume
525+ threshold $ \theta _r$ for all evaluated policies across both
526+ models and five regions. Color encodes composite score (white =
527+ low, dark = high). The diagonal $ \theta _r = \theta _p$ marks
528+ zero-hysteresis policies. High-scoring configurations cluster
529+ within $ \Delta\theta \leq 16 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh of the diagonal in
530+ every region, demonstrating that wide hysteresis margins are
531+ never Pareto-optimal.
500532 }
501533 \label {fig:threshold }
502534 \end {figure }
@@ -513,10 +545,13 @@ \section{Introduction}
513545 \centering
514546 \includegraphics [width=\textwidth ]{margin_vs_best_overview}
515547 \caption {
516- Hysteresis margin analysis: score vs.\ margin for all evaluated
517- policies. Beyond $ \Delta _\theta \approx 50 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh, the score
518- plateaus or declines, demonstrating diminishing returns from wide
519- hysteresis.
548+ Hysteresis margin analysis: composite score vs.\ margin
549+ $ \Delta\theta = \theta _p - \theta _r$ for all feasible policies.
550+ Scores peak at $ \Delta\theta < 16 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh and plateau or
551+ decline beyond $ \Delta\theta \approx 50 $ ~gCO$ _2 $ eq/kWh,
552+ confirming diminishing returns. Zero-margin policies ($ \theta _r
553+ = \theta _p$ ) achieve scores within 1--3\% of the optimum,
554+ making hysteresis effectively a binary clean/dirty decision.
520555 }
521556 \label {fig:margin }
522557 \end {figure }
@@ -544,13 +579,23 @@ \section{Introduction}
544579
545580 \subsection {Multi-Year Stability }
546581
582+ Single-year results are point estimates reflecting that specific
583+ year's weather and grid conditions; multi-year analysis provides
584+ the expected range under typical conditions.
585+
547586 \begin {figure }
548587 \centering
549588 \includegraphics [width=\textwidth ]{multiyear_avg_score}
550589 \caption {
551- Multi-year score comparison: single-year best (2025) vs.\ multi-year
552- average (2022--2025). Multi-year averaging attenuates peak savings,
553- most dramatically in DE and IT where 2025 was anomalously clean.
590+ Multi-year stability analysis: best single-year score (2025,
591+ blue) vs.\ multi-year average (2022--2025, orange) for
592+ DeepSeek~V3 across all regions. Multi-year averaging attenuates
593+ peak savings substantially in high-variability grids (DE: 0.717
594+ $ \to $ 0.599, 55\% attenuation; IT: 0.663 $ \to $ 0.594, 43\%
595+ attenuation) but minimally in stable grids (SE: 0.616 $ \to $
596+ 0.612, 4\% attenuation). This shows single-year optima may
597+ overestimate savings by up to $ 2.4 \times $ and that multi-year
598+ evaluation is essential for robust policy design.
554599 }
555600 \label {fig:multiyear }
556601 \end {figure }
@@ -650,8 +695,9 @@ \section{Introduction}
650695 discrete-event simulator with an adaptive grid-search optimizer to
651696 efficiently explore the three-dimensional policy space $ (\theta _p,
652697 \theta _r, t_s)$ . Applied to two state-of-the-art models across five grid
653- regions and four years of data, it establishes the first systematic Pareto
654- frontiers for this problem.
698+ regions and four years of data, it establishes systematic Pareto
699+ frontiers, to the best of our knowledge,
700+ for this problem.
655701
656702 The central finding is that hysteresis provides diminishing returns: the
657703 optimal policy uses a narrow or zero margin ($ \Delta _\theta \leq
@@ -672,13 +718,20 @@ \section{Introduction}
672718 All simulation code and data are available as part of the GreenEpoch
673719 project at \url {https://github.com/404simon/TheGreenEpoch}.
674720
721+ \paragraph {Broader impact. }
722+ As LLM training scales, carbon-aware scheduling can serve as
723+ demand-side flexibility for renewable energy grid integration:
724+ pausing during high-carbon periods reduces reliance on fossil-fuel
725+ peaker plants and aligns compute demand with renewable supply. This
726+ synergy is particularly relevant for grid operators managing
727+ increasing penetrations of variable renewable generation.
728+
675729 % ============================================================
676730 % Acknowledgments
677731 % ============================================================
678732 \paragraph {Acknowledgments. }
679733 We thank the Electricity Maps team for providing access to their carbon
680- intensity API. This work was partially supported by the German Research
681- Foundation (DFG) as part of the GreenEpoch project.
734+ intensity API.
682735
683736 % ============================================================
684737 % References
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