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publication/ICREC_Rome/main.tex

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\authorrunning{S. Wittmann et al.}
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\institute{
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TODO FAU\"at Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany\\
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Friedrich-Alexander-Universit\"at Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany\\
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\email{\{sim.wittmann,boolean.kraus,bastian.wiesner\}@fau.de}
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}
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@@ -150,8 +150,9 @@ \section{Introduction}
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$(\theta_p, \theta_r, t_s)$ policy space, converging within at most ten
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iterations.
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\item A comprehensive empirical study covering two state-of-the-art models
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across five grid regions and multi-year replay, establishing the first
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systematic Pareto frontiers for carbon-aware LLM training.
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across five grid regions and multi-year replay, establishing systematic
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Pareto frontiers, to the best of our knowledge, for
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carbon-aware LLM training.
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\item An actionable design rule: the optimal hysteresis policy uses a
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narrow margin ($\theta_p - \theta_r \leq 16$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh). Wide
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hysteresis is never Pareto-optimal.
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Wiesner~et~al.~\cite{wiesner_lets_2021} demonstrated that delaying cloud
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batch jobs by a few hours to align with periods of low carbon intensity can
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reduce operational emissions by 3--34\%\footnote{Experimental range
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in~\cite{wiesner_lets_2021}: nightly jobs 3--34\%, ML project scenarios
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in~\cite{wiesner_lets_2021}: nightly jobs 3--34\%, ML project scenarios
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3--19\%.}, depending on job duration and
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regional grid profile. Their ``let's wait awhile'' approach uses a
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pause-resume semantics similar to ours but targets generic cloud workloads
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\paragraph{Our distinction.}
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While each prior work advances carbon-aware computing, none provides a
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systematic policy parameter optimization framework for single-site LLM
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training. We contribute the first characterization of the $(\theta_p,
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\theta_r, t_s)$ design space, the first quantification of the hysteresis
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training. We contribute a characterization of the $(\theta_p,
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\theta_r, t_s)$ design space, a quantification of the hysteresis
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margin trade-off, and a practical optimization method applicable to any
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training configuration.
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\begin{table}[t]
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\centering
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\caption{Comparison of carbon savings with prior workload shifting approaches.}
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\caption{Comparison of carbon savings with prior workload
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shifting approaches.}
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\label{tab:comparison}
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\small
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\begin{tabular}{lcc}
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\toprule
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Study & Approach & Savings \\
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\midrule
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Wiesner et al.~\cite{wiesner_lets_2021}
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& Temporal shifting, generic cloud jobs
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& 3--34\%$^\dagger$ \\
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& Temporal shifting, generic cloud jobs
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& 3--34\%$^\dagger$ \\
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Wiesner et al.~\cite{wiesner_distributed_2026}
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& Geo-distributed, curtailment windows
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& 88--95\%$^\ddagger$ \\
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& Geo-distributed, curtailment windows
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& 88--95\%$^\ddagger$ \\
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This work
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& Temporal hysteresis, frontier LLMs
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& 2--43\%$^\S$ \\
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& Temporal hysteresis, frontier LLMs
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& 2--43\%$^\S$ \\
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\bottomrule
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small $^\dagger$Negligible checkpoint overhead enables higher savings across diverse regions.} \\
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small $^\ddagger$Multi-site spatial shifting exploits near-zero-carbon curtailment energy. Residual emissions: 5--12\% of baselines.} \\
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small $^\S$Single-site; checkpoint/idle overhead caps savings (multi-year avg.: 3--20\%).} \\
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small
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$^\dagger$Negligible checkpoint overhead enables higher savings
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across diverse regions.} \\
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small
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$^\ddagger$Multi-site spatial shifting exploits
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near-zero-carbon curtailment energy. Residual emissions:
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5--12\% of baselines.} \\
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\multicolumn{3}{@{}p{\textwidth}@{}}{\small $^\S$Single-site;
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checkpoint/idle overhead caps savings (multi-year avg.: 3--20\%).} \\
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\end{tabular}
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\end{table}
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axis per iteration remains fixed. If the contracted interval on any axis
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falls below $3$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh, search on that axis terminates.
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\item {\bf Iteration.} Steps 2--3 repeat for a maximum of $K = 10$
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iterations, or until all axes reach minimum step size.
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iterations. The shrink factor $s=0.45$ ensures that after
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approximately six iterations the search window contracts below
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the minimum step of $3$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh.
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\end{enumerate}
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The algorithm guarantees a feasible point (the initial grid always contains
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with our settings ($K=10, N=10, D=7$ for start-date experiments, $D=1$ for
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fixed-date runs), a full optimization evaluates approximately 3,500
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candidate policies (550 for fixed-start runs), completing in under one
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minute on a single CPU core.
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minute on a single CPU core. The optimizer converges within 5--6
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iterations in all (model, region) combinations; subsequent
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iterations yield no measurable improvement
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($\Delta\text{score}\leq2\times10^{-5}$).
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% ============================================================
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% 6. Experimental Setup
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substantially different scales.
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\paragraph{Hardware constants.}
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GPU training power: 700~W. GPU idle power: 60~W. PUE: 1.27. Checkpoint
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pause: 148.8~s. Checkpoint resume: 0~s (asynchronous).
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GPU training power: 700~W (NVIDIA H800 TDP~\cite{h800_specs}). GPU idle
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power: 60~W (estimated). PUE: 1.27 (DeepSeek DGX H800 infrastructure
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data~\cite{jegham_hungry_2025}). Checkpoint pause: 148.8~s (PyTorch
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Distributed synchronous checkpoint, 7B model~\cite{pytorch_checkpoint}).
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Checkpoint resume: 0~s (asynchronous checkpoint I/O).
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\paragraph{Regions and data.}
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Five regions per Table~\ref{tab:grid}. Four complete years (2022--2025) of
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5-minute-resolution marginal carbon intensity from Electricity Maps.
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\paragraph{Optimizer settings.}
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Resolution $N=10$, iterations $K=10$, budget $B=200\%$, shrink factor
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Resolution $N=10$, iterations $K=10$, budget $B=800\%$ ($200\%$ for
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DeepSeek-US), shrink factor
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$s=0.45$, minimum step $3$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh, $\alpha=1.0$ (pure savings
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objective within budget). Start-date resolution: 1 sample (Jan~1) for
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objective within budget). Start-date resolution: 1 sample (Jan~1) for
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fixed-date runs, 7 samples per year for start-date optimization.
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Most experiments use an overhead budget of $B=800\%$ to ensure feasible
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policies exist across all (model, region) combinations; DeepSeek-US uses
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$B=200\%$ reflecting different initial bounds. The composite score (Eq.~3)
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normalizes by budget, keeping scores comparable.
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% ============================================================
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% 7. Results
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% ============================================================
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{savings_vs_overhead_all}
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\caption{
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Combined Pareto frontiers for DeepSeek~V3 and Kimi~K2 across five
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regions. Each point represents a feasible policy. Best-score points
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within the 200\% overhead budget are highlighted.
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Combined Pareto frontiers for DeepSeek~V3 (2048 GPUs) and
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Kimi~K2 (min.~256 GPU group) across five grid regions (DE, IT,
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SE, US, CN). Each point represents one feasible policy
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configuration $(\theta_p, \theta_r, t_s)$ evaluated via
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discrete-event simulation replaying 2025 carbon intensity data
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at 5-minute resolution. Best-score points within the 200\%
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overhead budget are highlighted as stars. Regional ranking
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follows grid variability (CV): DE (CV=0.37) achieves up to
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43.4\% savings; CN (CV=0.11) yields under 10\%.
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}
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\label{fig:pareto}
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\end{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{threshold_space_overview}
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\caption{
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Threshold space: $\theta_p$ vs.\ $\theta_r$ for all evaluated policies,
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colored by score. The diagonal $\theta_r = \theta_p$ represents
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zero-hysteresis policies. High-scoring configurations cluster near the
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diagonal across all regions and models.
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Threshold space: pause threshold $\theta_p$ vs.\ resume
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threshold $\theta_r$ for all evaluated policies across both
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models and five regions. Color encodes composite score (white =
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low, dark = high). The diagonal $\theta_r = \theta_p$ marks
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zero-hysteresis policies. High-scoring configurations cluster
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within $\Delta\theta \leq 16$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh of the diagonal in
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every region, demonstrating that wide hysteresis margins are
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never Pareto-optimal.
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}
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\label{fig:threshold}
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\end{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{margin_vs_best_overview}
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\caption{
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Hysteresis margin analysis: score vs.\ margin for all evaluated
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policies. Beyond $\Delta_\theta \approx 50$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh, the score
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plateaus or declines, demonstrating diminishing returns from wide
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hysteresis.
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Hysteresis margin analysis: composite score vs.\ margin
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$\Delta\theta = \theta_p - \theta_r$ for all feasible policies.
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Scores peak at $\Delta\theta < 16$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh and plateau or
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decline beyond $\Delta\theta \approx 50$~gCO$_2$eq/kWh,
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confirming diminishing returns. Zero-margin policies ($\theta_r
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= \theta_p$) achieve scores within 1--3\% of the optimum,
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making hysteresis effectively a binary clean/dirty decision.
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}
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\label{fig:margin}
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\end{figure}
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\subsection{Multi-Year Stability}
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Single-year results are point estimates reflecting that specific
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year's weather and grid conditions; multi-year analysis provides
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the expected range under typical conditions.
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{multiyear_avg_score}
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\caption{
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Multi-year score comparison: single-year best (2025) vs.\ multi-year
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average (2022--2025). Multi-year averaging attenuates peak savings,
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most dramatically in DE and IT where 2025 was anomalously clean.
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Multi-year stability analysis: best single-year score (2025,
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blue) vs.\ multi-year average (2022--2025, orange) for
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DeepSeek~V3 across all regions. Multi-year averaging attenuates
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peak savings substantially in high-variability grids (DE: 0.717
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$\to$ 0.599, 55\% attenuation; IT: 0.663 $\to$ 0.594, 43\%
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attenuation) but minimally in stable grids (SE: 0.616 $\to$
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0.612, 4\% attenuation). This shows single-year optima may
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overestimate savings by up to $2.4\times$ and that multi-year
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evaluation is essential for robust policy design.
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}
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\label{fig:multiyear}
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\end{figure}
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discrete-event simulator with an adaptive grid-search optimizer to
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efficiently explore the three-dimensional policy space $(\theta_p,
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\theta_r, t_s)$. Applied to two state-of-the-art models across five grid
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regions and four years of data, it establishes the first systematic Pareto
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frontiers for this problem.
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regions and four years of data, it establishes systematic Pareto
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frontiers, to the best of our knowledge,
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for this problem.
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The central finding is that hysteresis provides diminishing returns: the
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optimal policy uses a narrow or zero margin ($\Delta_\theta \leq
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All simulation code and data are available as part of the GreenEpoch
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project at \url{https://github.com/404simon/TheGreenEpoch}.
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\paragraph{Broader impact.}
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As LLM training scales, carbon-aware scheduling can serve as
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demand-side flexibility for renewable energy grid integration:
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pausing during high-carbon periods reduces reliance on fossil-fuel
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peaker plants and aligns compute demand with renewable supply. This
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synergy is particularly relevant for grid operators managing
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increasing penetrations of variable renewable generation.
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% ============================================================
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% Acknowledgments
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% ============================================================
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\paragraph{Acknowledgments.}
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We thank the Electricity Maps team for providing access to their carbon
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intensity API. This work was partially supported by the German Research
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Foundation (DFG) as part of the GreenEpoch project.
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intensity API.
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% ============================================================
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% References

publication/ICREC_Rome/references.bib

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- Let's Wait Awhile How Temporal Workload Shifting Can Reduce Carbon
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Emissions in the
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Cloud.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/home/simon/Zotero/storage/7RF8TD3E/2110.html:text/html
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},
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},
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}
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@misc{h800_specs,
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title = {NVIDIA H800 SXM5 Specs},
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url = {https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/h800-sxm5.c3975},
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urldate = {2026-07-14}
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}
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@misc{jegham_hungry_2025,
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title = {How Hungry is {AI}? Benchmarking Energy, Water, and Carbon
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Footprint of {LLM} Inference},
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author = {Jegham, Nidhal and Abdelatti, Marwan and Koh, Chan Young
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and Elmoubarki, Lassad and Hendawi, Abdeltawab},
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doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2505.09598},
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url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.09598},
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year = {2025},
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note = {Table~1: DeepSeek DGX H800 PUE = 1.27}
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}
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@misc{pytorch_checkpoint,
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title = {Reducing Model Checkpointing Times by Over 10x with {PyTorch}
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Distributed Asynchronous Checkpointing},
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author = {Pasqualin, Lucas and Wright, Less and Zhang, Iris
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and Huang, Chien-Chin and Sundararaman, Swaminathan
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and Gupta, Saransh and Ganti, Raghu},
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url = {https://pytorch.org/blog/reducing-checkpointing-times/},
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urldate = {2026-07-14},
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year = {2024}
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}
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