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COST_COMPARISON.md

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Cost Comparison: Superconducting Qubits vs. Magnon Electrodynamics

Executive Summary

Pathway Capital Cost Operating Cost/Year Time to Data Risk
Superconducting Qubits $1.5M - $2.5M $150K 18-24 months High
Magnon Electrodynamics $150K - $250K $20K 3-6 months Medium
Savings $1.3M - $2.3M $130K/year 12-18 months —

Magnon Electrodynamics reduces costs by 10× and accelerates timeline by 4×.

Detailed Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

Superconducting Qubit Implementation

Component Cost Notes
Dilution refrigerator $500K - $800K Required for 15 mK operation
Qubit fabrication (cleanroom) $200K - $500K E-beam lithography, deposition
Quantum control electronics $200K - $400K AWGs, digitizers, mixers
Cryogenic microwave chain $100K - $150K HEMTs, isolators, attenuators
Measurement software $50K - $100K Qiskit, custom control
Shielding (advanced RF + magnetic) $50K - $100K Multi-layer mu-metal
Installation and commissioning $100K - $150K Vendor support, debugging
Total CapEx $1.2M - $2.2M

Magnon Electrodynamics Implementation

Component Cost Notes
4K cryostat (closed-cycle) $50K - $80K Standard He-4 system
Magnonic crystals $5K - $20K YIG spheres or custom growth
Magnet system (1-2 T) $20K - $40K Electromagnet or small SC
Microwave cavity + coupling $10K - $20K Custom machined copper
VNA + microwave electronics $40K - $60K Can use used equipment
Lock-in + DAQ $15K - $25K Standard instruments
Shielding (basic RF) $5K - $10K Simple mu-metal + copper
Total CapEx $145K - $255K

CapEx Comparison

Category Qubits Magnons Savings
Cooling $500K - $800K $50K - $80K $450K - $720K
Samples $200K - $500K $5K - $20K $195K - $480K
Electronics $300K - $500K $55K - $85K $245K - $415K
Other $200K - $400K $35K - $70K $165K - $330K
Total $1.2M - $2.2M $145K - $255K $1.05M - $1.95M

Operating Expenditure (OpEx)

Annual Operating Costs

Item Qubits Magnons
Cryogen (He-3/He-4 mix) $30K - $50K $0 (closed-cycle)
Maintenance contracts $50K - $80K $10K - $15K
Consumables (samples) $20K - $50K $2K - $5K
Power (dilution fridge) $10K - $20K $2K - $5K
Personnel (specialized) $150K - $250K $80K - $120K
Total Annual OpEx $260K - $450K $94K - $145K

5-Year Total Cost of Ownership

Pathway CapEx OpEx (5 yr) Total
Superconducting Qubits $1.7M $1.8M $3.5M
Magnon Electrodynamics $200K $600K $800K

5-year savings: ~$2.7M

Timeline Comparison

Superconducting Qubit Pathway

Phase Duration Cumulative
Procurement + installation 6-9 months 9 months
Cooldown + commissioning 2-3 months 12 months
Qubit fabrication + testing 3-6 months 18 months
Protocol development 2-3 months 21 months
Data collection 3-6 months 27 months
Total 21-27 months

Magnon Electrodynamics Pathway

Phase Duration Cumulative
Procurement 1-2 months 2 months
System assembly 1-2 months 4 months
Crystal characterization 2 weeks 4.5 months
Calibration 2 weeks 5 months
Data collection 1-2 months 6-7 months
Total 5-7 months

Time savings: 14-20 months

Risk Analysis

Superconducting Qubit Risks

Risk Probability Impact Mitigation Cost
Dilution fridge failure 10%/year $100K, 3 month delay $50K maintenance
Low qubit coherence 30% 6 month refab $200K
Fab yield issues 20% 3 month delay $50K rework
Control electronics issues 15% 2 month delay $30K

Magnon Electrodynamics Risks

Risk Probability Impact Mitigation Cost
Cryostat failure 5%/year $20K, 1 month delay $5K maintenance
Crystal quality 20% 1 month delay $5K new crystals
Weak coupling 25% Need better cavity $10K redesign
Insufficient SNR 20% Longer integration $0 (time only)

Risk-adjusted timeline:

  • Qubits: 24-30 months (with likely delays)
  • Magnons: 6-9 months (with likely delays)

Personnel Requirements

Superconducting Qubit Team

Role FTE Annual Cost
PI (faculty) 0.2 $40K
Postdoc (quantum) 1.0 $70K
PhD student 1.5 $45K
Cleanroom technician 0.5 $35K
Cryogenic engineer 0.3 $30K
Total 3.5 FTE $220K/year

Magnon Electrodynamics Team

Role FTE Annual Cost
PI (faculty) 0.2 $40K
Postdoc or PhD 1.0 $55K
Lab technician 0.2 $10K
Total 1.4 FTE $105K/year

Funding Compatibility

Superconducting Qubit Scale

  • Requires: Center grant, large foundation, or industry partnership
  • Examples: NSF QLCI ($25M), DOE QIS center, Google/IBM partnership
  • Competition: Extremely high
  • Success rate: <5%

Magnon Electrodynamics Scale

  • Requires: Single-PI grant or internal funds
  • Examples: NSF CAREER ($500K), DOE Early Career ($750K), University seed grant ($50K)
  • Competition: Moderate
  • Success rate: 15-25%

Magnon approach is fundable at the individual investigator level.

Return on Investment

Scenario Analysis

Outcome Qubits Magnons
Positive result High-profile Nature paper High-profile paper + rapid follow-up
Technology development possible Low-cost replication by others
$2M invested → long-term platform $200K invested → proof of principle
Null result $2M spent, constraints published $200K spent, constraints published
Limited follow-up possible Easy to try alternative materials

Expected Value Calculation

Assume:

  • P(positive) = 20% (speculative physics)
  • V(positive) = $10M (technology value + citations + follow-on funding)
  • V(null) = $100K (publication + constraints)
Pathway E[Value] Cost Net E[Value]
Qubits $2.08M $2M $80K
Magnons $2.08M $200K $1.88M

Magnon pathway has 20× better expected net value.

Decision Matrix

Factor Weight Qubits (1-10) Magnons (1-10) Qubits Score Magnons Score
Cost 30% 2 9 0.6 2.7
Timeline 25% 3 9 0.75 2.25
Technical risk 20% 4 7 0.8 1.4
Scientific validity 15% 8 8 1.2 1.2
Scalability 10% 7 6 0.7 0.6
Total 100% 4.05 8.15

Magnon Electrodynamics scores 2× higher overall.

Recommendation

Primary Pathway: Magnon Electrodynamics

  1. Immediate action: Pursue $200K magnon experiment
  2. Timeline: 6 months to first data
  3. Funding: Seek single-PI grant or seed funding
  4. Team: 1-2 researchers with FMR experience

Secondary Pathway: Superconducting Qubits

  1. Conditional: Only if magnons show positive signal
  2. Purpose: Technology development, not proof of principle
  3. Timeline: Begin planning after magnon Phase 1
  4. Funding: Pursue center-scale funding with preliminary magnon data

Rationale

"Test the physics cheaply first. Scale the technology only after validation."

The coherence field hypothesis is speculative. Investing $2M+ before any experimental signal is high-risk. Magnon Electrodynamics allows the hypothesis to be tested at 10% of the cost in 25% of the time.

If magnons work → qubits will too (same physics) If magnons fail → saved $1.8M

The rational strategy is Magnon Electrodynamics first.

See HARDWARE_REQUIREMENTS.md for detailed magnon equipment list.