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Description
Problem Statement
Current TVL metrics treat all locked value equally, regardless of underlying protocol risks. A protocol with $1B TVL behind a 2/3 multisig appears identical to one with fully decentralized governance. This creates a false sense of security and doesn't help users make informed decisions.
Recent events (Terra, FTM, various rug pulls) have shown that high TVL ≠ safety. Users need better risk-adjusted metrics.
Proposed Solution
Introduce a Risk-Adjusted TVL metric that factors in protocol security characteristics:
Risk-Adjusted TVL = TVL × (1 - weighted_risk_score)
Risk Factors to Consider:
- Admin key control (EOA vs multisig vs timelock vs fully immutable)
- Oracle dependencies (Chainlink vs TWAP vs custom)
- Upgradeability patterns (proxy patterns, pause mechanisms)
- Liquidity concentration (% from top 10 wallets)
- Smart contract maturity (time since deployment, audit status)
- Bridge/external dependencies
Implementation Plan
Phase 1: Risk Schema (Week 1)
- Add
riskProfilefield to protocol metadata - Define standardized risk categories and weights
- Create documentation for risk methodology
Phase 2: Initial Data (Week 2-3)
- Manually assess top 50 protocols by TVL
- Create risk scoring rubric
- Add risk data to adapters
Phase 3: Frontend Integration (Week 4)
- Add toggle: "Show Risk-Adjusted TVL"
- Risk badge on protocol cards
- New sorting option in rankings
Phase 4: Automation (Future)
- On-chain monitoring for admin key changes
- Automated risk score updates
- Community contributions for risk assessments
Value Proposition
- For DeFiLlama: Differentiated metric no other analytics platform offers
- For Users: Better risk assessment at a glance
- For Protocols: Incentive to improve security practices
Questions for Maintainers
- Is this aligned with DeFiLlama's vision and roadmap?
- Any preferred methodology for risk scoring you'd like to see?
- Would you prefer this as a core feature or separate module?
- Should risk data be in adapters or a separate repository?
I'm happy to build a proof-of-concept with 5-10 protocols first to demonstrate the value. I can also create a Figma mockup of the UI changes if helpful.
Technical Approach
- Minimal changes to existing codebase
- Backward compatible (risk scores optional)
- Community-contributable via PRs
Looking forward to your thoughts!
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