Climate drivers for fire for REF (#3975)

Co-authored-by: Douglas Kelley <douglas.i.kelley@gmail.com>
Co-authored-by: Valeriu Predoi <valeriu.predoi@gmail.com>

Author: 3 people

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/figures/ref/burnt_fraction_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png

@@ -122,6 +122,7 @@ Land
    recipe_landcover
    recipe_anav13jclim
    recipe_runoff_et
+   recipe_ref_fire
 
 Ocean
 ^^^^^

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/figures/ref/fire_weather_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png

@@ -39,6 +39,8 @@ Recipes are stored in `recipes/`
   time series, zonal mean total column ozone vs. time map plot, zonal mean
   total column ozone vs. annual cycle map plot, altitude vs. zonal mean
   ozone profile climatology map plot
+* :ref:`ref/recipe_ref_fire.yml <recipe_ref_fire>`:
+   Maps of burnt area fraction, fire weather control, and fuel load continuity control.
 
 
 Example plots:
@@ -89,10 +91,30 @@ Example plots:
    Zonal mean vertically resolved ozone climatology from CNRM-ESM2-1 compared with ESACCI-OZONE
    for the years 1990 to 2000. Created with recipe_ref_ozone.yml.
 
-.. _fig_ref_7:
 .. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/timeseries_tas_ambiguous_dataset_Amon_historical_r1i1p1f1.png
    :align:   center
    :width:   8cm
 
    Time series of near-surface air temperature anomalies from MIROC6 compared with HadCRUT5
    for N.Europe for the years 1980 to 2014 (reference period 1980 to 2009). Created with recipe_ref_timeseries_region.yml.
+
+.. _fig_ref_7:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/burnt_fraction_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Burnt area fraction for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.
+
+.. _fig_ref_8:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/fire_weather_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Fire weather control for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.
+
+.. _fig_ref_9:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/fuel_load_continuity_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Fuel load continuity control for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/figures/ref/fuel_load_continuity_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png

@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
+.. _recipe_ref_fire:
+
+Climate drivers of fire
+=======================
+
+Overview
+--------
+
+This diagnostic includes:
+
+* burnt fraction
+* fire weather control
+* fuel load/continuity control
+
+The diagnostic relies on the processing of fire climate drivers through the
+ConFire model (dedicated branch from the GitHub repository available at
+https://github.com/douglask3/Bayesian_fire_models/tree/AR7_REF) and is based on
+`Jones et al. (2024)`. The diagnostic computes the burnt fraction for each grid
+cell based on a number of drivers. Additionally, the respective controls due to
+fire weather and fuel load/continuity are computed. The stochastic control
+corresponds to the unmodelled processed influencing to fire occurrence.
+The ESMValTool diagnostic includes only the relevant part of the evaluation code
+(see https://github.com/douglask3/Bayesian_fire_models/blob/AR7_REF/fire_model/ConFire.py
+for now) as the model run is done offline beforehand. The corresponding result
+files are made available through a Zenodo archive which can be retrieved inside
+the diagnostic. The archive is published under the DOI 10.5281/zenodo.14917244,
+but a specific version of the files can be specified using the corresponding DOI,
+e.g. the default link to https://zenodo.org/records/14917245. The other option
+is to provide a local directory which contains the necessary model files.
+
+The ConFire model relies on a variety of observational datasets (see references):
+
+* Global Fire Emissions Database version 5
+* MODIS MOD44B
+* ESA CCI Biomass
+* ISIMIP3a GSWP3-W5E5 dataset
+
+Note: If custom ConFire run files are to be used for the diagnostic,
+they need to be present inside the auxiliary directory defined in the
+user configuration file `config_user.yml`.
+
+
+Available recipes and diagnostics
+---------------------------------
+
+Recipes are stored in esmvaltool/recipes/:
+
+* recipe_ref_fire.yml
+
+Diagnostics are stored in esmvaltool/diag_scripts/fire/:
+
+* fire_diagnostic.py: main diagnostic script calling a util function from diagnostic_run_ConFire.py.
+* diagnostic_run_ConFire.py: script containing utils functions to run the ConFire model.
+
+
+User settings in recipe
+-----------------------
+
+#. Script fire_diagnostic.py
+
+   *Required settings for script*
+
+   * var_order: list of climate drivers in the order corresponding to the one
+     specified in the corresponding file from the confire_param directory.
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * confire_param: path to the directory containing the required files to run
+     the ConFire model or Zenodo URL to retrieve files from a Zenodo archive.
+     If custom files are used, the corresponding directory needs to be present
+     inside the auxiliary data directory defined inside the user configuration.
+     This defaults to the original Zenodo archive otherwise.
+   * remove_vpd_files: Removing or not the computed vapor pressure deficit files.
+     It will only apply if the vapor pressure deficit is part of var_order.
+     This defaults to False.
+   * remove_confire_files: Removing or not the files produced during the ConFire
+     model evaluation.
+     This defaults to False.
+
+   *Required settings for variables*
+
+   *Optional settings for variables*
+
+   *Required settings for preprocessor*
+
+   *Optional settings for preprocessor*
+
+#. Script diagnostic_run_ConFire.py
+
+   *Required settings for script*
+
+   * confire_param: path to the directory containing the required files to run
+     the ConFire model (or downloaded files from a Zenodo archive).
+   * files_input: list containing tuples of variable name and file path for each
+     climate driver present in var_order.
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * model_name: string containing the input data model for legending the plots.
+   * timerange: string containing the time range of the input data for legending the plots.
+   * project: string or list containing the input data project(s).
+   * experiment: string or list containing the input data experiment(s).
+
+   *Required settings for variables*
+
+   *Optional settings for variables*
+
+   *Required settings for preprocessor*
+
+   *Optional settings for preprocessor*
+
+
+Variables
+---------
+
+* pr (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* tasmax (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* treeFrac (land, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* vegFrac (land, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* cveg (land, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* tas (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time): used to compute vpd.
+* hurs (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time): used to compue vpd.
+
+
+References
+----------
+
+* Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F.,
+  Brambleby, E., Hartley, A. J., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., McNorton, J. R.,
+  Spuler, F. R., Wessel, J. B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Anderson, L. O., Andela, N.,
+  Archibald, S., Armenteras, D., Burke, E., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Clarke, H.,
+  Doerr, S. H., Fernandes, P. M., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S.,
+  Harris, S., Jain, P., Kolden, C. A., Kurvits, T., Lampe, S., Meier, S., New, S.,
+  Parrington, M., Perron, M. M. G., Qu, Y., Ribeiro, N. S., Saharjo, B. H.,
+  San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Shuman, J. K., Tanpipat, V., van der Werf, G. R.,
+  Veraverbeke, S., and Xanthopoulos, G.: State of Wildfires 2023–2024,
+  Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024.
+
+* Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio,
+  Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, & James T. Randerson. (2023).
+  Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5) Burned Area (0.1) [Data set]. Zenodo.
+  https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7668424.
+
+* DiMiceli, C., Sohlberg, R., Townshend, J. (2022). MODIS/Terra Vegetation Continuous
+  Fields Yearly L3 Global 250m SIN Grid V061 [Data set]. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes
+  Distributed Active Archive Center. Accessed 2025-04-01 from https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD44B.061.
+
+* Santoro, M.; Cartus, O. (2024): ESA Biomass Climate Change Initiative (Biomass_cci):
+  Global datasets of forest above-ground biomass for the years 2010, 2015, 2016,
+  2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, v5.01. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data
+  Analysis, 22 August 2024. https://dx.doi.org/10.5285/bf535053562141c6bb7ad831f5998d77.
+
+* Stefan Lange, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Matthias Büchner (2022): ISIMIP3a atmospheric
+  climate input data (v1.0). ISIMIP Repository. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.982724.
+
+
+Example plots
+-------------
+
+.. _fig_ref_fire_burnt_area:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/burnt_fraction_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Burnt area fraction for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.
+
+.. _fig_ref_fire_fire_weather_control:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/fire_weather_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Fire weather control for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.
+
+.. _fig_ref_fire_fuel_load_continuity_control:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ref/fuel_load_continuity_control_MPI-ESM1-2-LR_historical_2013_2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Fuel load continuity control for the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model (CMIP-historical experiment)
+   for the time period 2013-2014 as computed with the ConFire model `Jones et al. (2024)`.

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/index.rst

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ channels:
 
 dependencies:
   - aiohttp
+  - arviz
   - cartopy
   - cdo >=2.3.0
   - cdsapi

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/recipe_ref.rst

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ channels:
 
 dependencies:
   - aiohttp
+  - arviz
   - cartopy
   - cdo >=2.3.0
   - cdsapi

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/recipe_ref_fire.rst

@@ -330,6 +330,10 @@ authors:
     name: Kalverla, Peter
     institute: NLeSC, Netherlands
     orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5025-7862
+  kelley_douglas:
+    name: Kelley, Douglas
+    institute: UKCEH, UK
+    orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969
   kindermann_stephan:
     name: Kindermann, Stephan
     institute: DKRZ, Germany