tier-c-aggregation.md

Tier-C Aggregation Extension

Import this in addition to the 8 core modules for aggregation / reference-grade workflows:

• news-evening-analysis
• news-weekly-review
• news-monthly-review
• news-week-ahead
• news-month-ahead
• news-quarter-ahead (long-horizon — also imports ext/long-horizon-forecasting.md)
• news-year-ahead (long-horizon — also imports ext/long-horizon-forecasting.md)
• news-election-cycle (long-horizon — also imports ext/long-horizon-forecasting.md and ext/cycle-rollover.md)
• news-realtime-monitor

These are the flagship editorial surfaces of Riksdagsmonitor. Tier-C rules are additive, not replacements — all 23 Family A/B/C/D artifacts from 04-analysis-pipeline.md are already mandatory for every workflow. Tier-C adds depth multipliers, cross-type synthesis, sibling-citation requirements and a higher article-output floor.

Artifact count — identical to single-type workflows

All aggregation workflows produce the same 23 always-on artifacts (Family A 9 + Family B 2 + Family C 5 + Family D 7) defined in 04-analysis-pipeline.md. No extra files are added at the Tier-C level. What changes is:

• Depth — each artifact is expanded under the period-scope multiplier below.
• Cross-type synthesis — aggregation workflows must read sibling per-type folders and cite them in cross-reference-map.md.
• Article floor — Tier-C articles require ≥ 1 500 words vs 1 000 for single-type.

Period-scope multipliers (depth calibration)

Aggregation depth scales with the period covered. Multiply the comprehensive minimum times in 04-analysis-pipeline.md §Depth calibration by:

Workflow	Multiplier	Rationale
news-realtime-monitor	0.8×	Single-event brief; may trim historical context.
news-evening-analysis	1.0×	Standard day-in-review.
news-week-ahead / news-weekly-review	1.2×	5–7 day window synthesis.
news-month-ahead / news-monthly-review	1.5×	30-day window; longitudinal patterns required.
news-quarter-ahead	1.7×	90-day window; parliamentary-season lens; long-horizon-forecasting rules apply.
news-year-ahead	2.0×	365-day window; PESTLE blocking; full Nordic-peer IMF compare.
news-election-cycle	2.5×	4-year mandate; 24th artifact (cycle-trajectory.md); PESTLE + STRIDE + wildcards blocking.

All 23 artifacts remain mandatory regardless of multiplier. The multiplier extends per-item body length and framework richness (e.g. month-ahead coalition-mathematics.md carries five party-coalition Sainte-Laguë variants vs one for realtime).

Cross-type synthesis (aggregation only)

Aggregation workflows must read sibling article-type analyses produced for the same period and cite them explicitly in cross-reference-map.md §Sibling folders:

Aggregation workflow	Sibling folders to read
news-evening-analysis	Today's propositions/, motions/, committeeReports/, interpellations/, any realtime-*/
news-week-ahead / news-weekly-review	Last 7 days of per-type folders
news-month-ahead / news-monthly-review	Last 30 days of per-type folders
news-quarter-ahead	Last 90 days of per-type folders + most recent week-ahead + month-ahead
news-year-ahead	Last 180 days of per-type folders + ≥ 2 quarter-ahead + ≥ 4 monthly-review
news-election-cycle	Last 365 days of per-type folders + ≥ 2 year-ahead + ≥ 12 monthly-review
news-realtime-monitor	Prior 7 days' realtime-*/ for continuity chain

Cross-references go into cross-reference-map.md with one entry per sibling folder read. Missing cross-type citations fail the gate.

Recent-daily synthesis ingestion

For news-week-ahead, news-month-ahead, news-weekly-review, news-monthly-review and news-realtime-monitor, before Pass 1 analysis:

1. Read every synthesis-summary.md and intelligence-assessment.md from the lookback window.
2. Extract unique dok_id references, stakeholder names, and open PIRs.
3. Record the ingestion list in data-download-manifest.md §Reference Analyses.
4. Use the extracted entities as input to Pass 1 SWOT, risk, stakeholder, scenario, and forward-indicators files.
5. Propagate every unresolved PIR from prior-cycle intelligence-assessment.md into the current-cycle version.

Tier-C additive gate

The 23-artifact gate in 05-analysis-gate.md already runs on every workflow. Tier-C adds the following additive check block — run it after the core gate passes:

set -Eeuo pipefail
ANALYSIS_DIR="${ANALYSIS_DIR:-}"
[ -n "$ANALYSIS_DIR" ] || { echo "❌ ANALYSIS_DIR is not set; run the core-gate block from 05-analysis-gate.md first"; exit 1; }
[ -d "$ANALYSIS_DIR" ] || { echo "❌ ANALYSIS_DIR does not exist: $ANALYSIS_DIR"; exit 1; }
FAIL=0

# Tier-C additive check 1 — cross-reference-map.md cites ≥ 1 sibling folder under analysis/daily/
if [ -s "$ANALYSIS_DIR/cross-reference-map.md" ]; then
  grep -qE 'analysis/daily/[0-9]{4}-[0-9]{2}-[0-9]{2}/[A-Za-z0-9_-]+' "$ANALYSIS_DIR/cross-reference-map.md" \
    || { echo "❌ tier-c: cross-reference-map.md missing sibling-folder citations (expected analysis/daily/<date>/<type>)"; FAIL=1; }
fi

# Tier-C additive check 2 — intelligence-assessment.md ingests prior-cycle PIRs (Tier-C only)
if [ -s "$ANALYSIS_DIR/intelligence-assessment.md" ]; then
  grep -qE '(Prior[- ]cycle|Carried[- ]forward|Previous[- ]PIR|Open[[:space:]]+PIR)' "$ANALYSIS_DIR/intelligence-assessment.md" \
    || { echo "❌ tier-c: intelligence-assessment.md missing prior-cycle PIR ingestion section"; FAIL=1; }
fi

[ "$FAIL" -eq 0 ] || exit 1

The core structural checks (scenario count ≥ 3, comparator rows ≥ 2, Key Judgments ≥ 3, ACH hypotheses ≥ 3, forward indicators ≥ 10, ICD 203 audit, BLUF section) are enforced by 05-analysis-gate.md checks 7–8 and apply to every workflow. If the Tier-C additive block is promoted to scripts/validate-tier-c-gate.ts, update this module accordingly.

Article expectations

Tier-C articles are the editorial flagship. Floor:

• ≥ 1 500 words (vs 1 000 for single-type).
• All 5 mandatory analytical sections present (vs 3 of 5).
• ≥ 5 dok_id references.
• ≥ 2 charts (economic + political).
• Executive brief linked from the article.
• Scenario table (from scenario-analysis.md) embedded in the article.
• Forward-watch block (from forward-indicators.md top 3 triggers) embedded in the article.