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| 1 | +# STATUS — fibengine research |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +At-a-glance snapshot. **Last swept: 2026-06-25.** Full per-line detail + doc pointers: |
| 4 | +[docs/research_wiki/reference/research-line-status.md](docs/research_wiki/reference/research-line-status.md). |
| 5 | +Current working context: [handoff.md](docs/research_wiki/handoff.md). Why the project exists: |
| 6 | +[north-star.md](docs/research_wiki/north-star.md). |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +## North star |
| 9 | + |
| 10 | +Teach the machine to **select Fib legs (A→B) like the human** (facit = manual source-fibs). This is |
| 11 | +**step 1** of a staged path: selection → descriptive level-reads → edge/backtest → **Genesis-V2**. |
| 12 | +"No edge claim" = *not yet / not from this sub-study* (a validity gate), **not** a cap. |
| 13 | + |
| 14 | +## Where we are |
| 15 | + |
| 16 | +Step 1 is **not in goal**: the model ranks human legs above chance (AUC ~0.91) but does **not** |
| 17 | +reproduce the selection (AP 0.057 vs 0.83 ceiling) — a modest single-feature (`cleanliness`) lead. |
| 18 | +Controls are done, enrichment closed, the learning-curve is saturated → **more 4h data is low-leverage; |
| 19 | +the lever is a richer notion of what makes a leg "yours"**. Current bet: **top-down MTF nesting** |
| 20 | +(model the same swing decomposed 1M→1W→1D), which needs **new deliberately-nested labels**. |
| 21 | + |
| 22 | +## Line status |
| 23 | + |
| 24 | +| Line | Status | |
| 25 | +|------|--------| |
| 26 | +| Selection-learning (model selects legs like the human) | 🔬 active | |
| 27 | +| Top-down "sniper" MTF nesting (1M→1W→1D) | ⏳ pending — user redraws fibs | |
| 28 | +| BTC source-fib labeling 1M→4H | ✅ complete (1H deferred) | |
| 29 | +| Corpus integrity / dedup / corrections | ✅ complete | |
| 30 | +| Selection-learning controls (w-gap, stage-1, artifact) | ✅ complete | |
| 31 | +| Tooling / ecosystem (#25, #30, #32) | ✅ complete | |
| 32 | +| Fib behaviour (B-1) + context-conditioned | ⛔ closed (null) | |
| 33 | +| Horizontal-structure event study | ⛔ closed (null) | |
| 34 | +| Enrichment (`exclusivity`) | ⛔ closed (worse) | |
| 35 | +| `cleanliness` matched-null crux | ⛔ closed (rejected — A8/A11/A9) | |
| 36 | +| MTF confluence atlas | ⏸ parked (geometry, not edge) | |
| 37 | +| Selection-learning mechanics (snapping / net-path) | ⏸ parked | |
| 38 | +| Fib → Genesis-V2 (phase 0/1/2) | 💤 dormant (docs-only prereg) | |
| 39 | +| Chart regression strategy | ⏸ deferred (#F) | |
| 40 | + |
| 41 | +## Open issues |
| 42 | + |
| 43 | +| # | Title | Note | |
| 44 | +|---|-------|------| |
| 45 | +| **#31** | Investigate fractal-based anchor detection vs human source-fib labels | 🔬 open — now relevant (upstream of the ranking model: does the detector even propose the human's A/B?). | |
| 46 | + |
| 47 | +*(#37 closed 2026-06-25 as a verbatim duplicate of #35 — the principle is in AGENTS.md.)* |
| 48 | + |
| 49 | +## Immediate next action |
| 50 | + |
| 51 | +1. **User:** redraw a small set of **deliberately-nested** fibs on one era (1M→1W→1D) — *tomorrow*. |
| 52 | +2. **Prerequisite (code):** extend `RESOLUTION_TIMEFRAME` in |
| 53 | + [`same_candle_mtf_resolution.py`](src/fibengine/labeling/same_candle_mtf_resolution.py) to cover |
| 54 | + 1M→1w (monthly anchors currently stay coarse). Continues **#31**. |
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