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Predict Trading Workflow

Use this workflow when the user wants to set up prediction market trading, fund the deposit wallet, quote/place orders, or manage Predict orders and positions.

Reference command syntax in ../references/predict.md. Cross-chain funding: bridge.md (§ Fund prediction markets on Polygon).

End-to-end flow

Typical order:

  1. One-time setup (if needed) — predict setup, credentials, approvals.
  2. Fund — ensure pUSD or USDC.e on Polygon; bridge from other chains when needed.
  3. Resolve market and outcome token ID.
  4. Quote and place.
  5. Manage orders/positions; close or cancel when the user asks to exit.

Complete funding before heavy market search when the user already gave you an amount to trade.

Mandatory: Polygon USDC.e before predict deposit

mm-dev wallet balance --chain 137 --token 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174 --json
mm-dev wallet balance --chain 137 --token 0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359 --json
Token Polygon contract Used by predict deposit?
USDC.e (bridged) 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174 Yes — wrap source for pUSD
Native USDC (Circle) 0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359 No — balance here does not fund deposit

Required: USDC.e ≥ --amount (pUSD) + ~$1 POL on Polygon for gas.

If USDC.e is too low: do not retry predict deposit in a loop — execution reverted usually means native USDC only or insufficient USDC.e.

Fund from another chain

Polymarket predict uses Polygon (137). If USDC.e on the owner EOA is insufficient but USDC exists elsewhere, bridge before predict deposit (see swap.md, bridge.md):

mm-dev wallet balance --chain 8453 --token USDC
mm-dev swap quote --from USDC --to USDC --amount <amount> --from-chain 8453 --to-chain 137
mm-dev swap execute --quote-id <quote-id>
mm-dev wallet balance --chain 137 --token 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174
mm-dev predict deposit --amount <pUSD> --wait

Use the chain ID where the wallet actually holds USDC (8453 Base, 42161 Arbitrum, 1 Ethereum). Include slippage buffer in the bridge amount. Re-check USDC.e (0x2791…), not native USDC (0x3c499…), before depositing.

One-Time Setup

Choose the Predict mode, run setup, and check backend status:

mm-dev predict mode mainnet
mm-dev predict setup --wait
mm-dev predict status

predict setup --wait blocks until credential, deposit-wallet, and approval jobs complete. Without --wait, watch returned jobs with mm-dev predict watch.

If setup or approvals look stale later:

mm-dev predict auth --refresh
mm-dev predict approve --wait
mm-dev predict balance --sync

predict setup and predict deposit use --wait; do not add --yes to those commands.

Fund the Deposit Wallet

Check deposit wallet status:

mm-dev predict balance --sync

Fund pUSD:

mm-dev predict deposit --amount 100 --wait --json

--amount is in pUSD. The owner EOA needs enough Polygon USDC and POL for gas to complete the deposit transaction.

Withdraw from the Deposit Wallet

Check balance first:

mm-dev predict balance --sync

Withdraw pUSD to the owner EOA (default) or a specified address:

mm-dev predict withdraw --amount 50 --wait
mm-dev predict withdraw --amount 10 --to 0xRecipient... --wait

The CLI validates the amount against the on-chain deposit wallet balance before signing. Confirm amount and recipient with the user before executing.

Find the Right Market

Search can return loosely related markets, so inspect the selected market before quoting:

mm-dev predict markets search "Knicks NBA Finals" --limit 5 --json
mm-dev predict markets get will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-2026-nba-finals --json

The market detail prints outcome token IDs. Outcome token IDs are not market IDs; use the token ID for quote, place, book, and balance --token-id.

If search is noisy, list active markets and filter manually:

mm-dev predict markets list --active --limit 50 --json

Quote, Then Place

Preview the order cost and fill before placing:

mm-dev predict quote \
  --token-id <outcomeTokenId> \
  --side buy --size 100 --limit-price 0.55

After the user confirms token ID, outcome, side, size, price, and order type:

mm-dev predict place \
  --token-id <outcomeTokenId> \
  --side buy --size 100 --price 0.55 \
  --order-type GTC

--order-type is one of GTC, GTD, FOK, or FAK. --post-only only applies to GTC/GTD. --expiration is unix seconds for GTD.

Manage Orders and Positions

mm-dev predict orders
mm-dev predict orders --market <condition-id>
mm-dev predict positions
mm-dev predict positions --market <condition-id>
mm-dev predict cancel --order-id <order-id>
mm-dev predict cancel --market <condition-id>
mm-dev predict cancel --asset <outcomeTokenId>
mm-dev predict cancel --all

predict cancel --all cancels every open order. Require explicit confirmation.

Watch Async Jobs

mm-dev predict watch --id <job-id> --wait

Use this for setup, approve, deposit, withdraw, and order jobs that have not reached a terminal state.

Safety Notes

  • Prices are 0-1 floats. Treat --price 1 as suspicious unless the user explicitly confirms.
  • Trades are signed by the deposit wallet address shown by mm-dev predict balance, not necessarily the connected owner EOA.
  • Always inspect the market to map the user's intended outcome to the correct token ID.