NESSC SocSciSS memo

Author: jcaracappa1

NESSC_SocSciSS/20250509-NEFMCSSCSocSciRequest-Caracappa.rmd

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+---
+author:
+- Joseph Caracappa, PhD
+- Research Fishery Biologist
+- Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment Branch
+- Northeast Fisheries Science Center
+opening: To the SSC Social Sciences Subcommittee,
+closing: Sincerely,
+date: "`r format(Sys.time(), '%d %B, %Y')`"
+address:
+- New England Fishery Management Council
+- 50 Water Street, Mill 2
+- Newburyport, MA 01950
+encl:
+- "State of the Ecosystem 2026: Social Science Objectives and Evaluation"
+cc:
+- Jon Hare
+letterhead: letterhead/NEFSCletterhead.pdf
+signature: Signature/caracappa.pdf
+signature-before: -2ex
+
+output: linl::linl
+---
+
+During our presentation of the 2025 New England State of the Ecosystem (SOE) report, it was determined that further discussions of Term of Reference C was necessary in order for the SSC to adequately address those topics. We are requesting that this subcommittee works with the SOE team to further address these topics. The following is some additional background information and context that may help prepare for further discussion.
+
+**Management Objectives**
+
+-   To further operationalize the SOE it is necessary to evaluate indicator status and trends with respect to well-defined management objectives. These should represent desired states, targets, or thresholds but can be quantitative or qualitative.
+-   Both “Fishery Stability” and “Community Vulnerability” objectives have been identified as being important factors for managers, but the specific objectives have not been well defined.
+-   *We are requesting that the SSC help develop language to help define true management objectives and evaluate the status of their respective indicators.*
+
+**Community Vulnerability**
+
+- The SOE team has worked over the past year with NEFSC social scientists and NEFMC staff to develop improvements in the representation of community vulnerability indicators. However, there is a continued need to evaluate how community vulnerability is changing over time and across the region. There is also a lack of objective criteria for evaluating regional community vulnerability.
+- There are many community-level indicators available, but without understanding how they relate to management objectives and actions, it is difficult to provide a meaningful assessment, especially when summed to a regional level.
+- *We are requesting that the SSC help identify which community vulnerability indicators are most relevant to NEFMC priorities, and how they can be used to evaluate community vulnerability in a meaningful way.*
+
+**Fishery Stability**
+
+-   The SOE team has discussed competing interpretations of fishery stability which may have different implications for management. These include evaluating economic volatility (revenue, quota, and/or markets), changes in the membership or activity of a fishery, or changes in harvest characteristics across fisheries, though there may be other interpretations.
+-   The previous measure of stability as increasing/decreasing and above/below a long term average may not be appropriate without more specific objectives defined. For instance, one could define a consistent state of low productivity as "stable" but not particularly desirable. Additionally, the criteria for determining whether a fishery is stable vs. not stable should be more explicit.
+-   *We are requesting that the SSC help identify which interpretations of “fishery stability” address NEFMC priorities, are actionable by managers, and which indicators would be most applicable.*
+
+We are not expecting the above topics to be immediately resolved, but are seeking a continued involvement with the SSC or other NEFMC committees to further improve the utility of the SOE and it's underlying data. We look forward to further conversations on these topics and appreciate whatever feedback this subcommittee can provide.

NESSC_SocSciSS/Signature/caracappa.png

@@ -27,12 +27,4 @@ In this memo we list comments and requests received on the 2019-2024 State of th
 
 The attached document includes a table where we summarize all comments and requests with sources. Since 2023, the memo is organized into categories of requests in descending order of overall Council priority. The Rank column summarizes priority and was derived from combined discussion with the Mid-Atlantic SSC ecosystem working group and a survey of selected MAFMC members coordinated by Council staff in July 2022. Ranks were reviewed and updated by MAFMC and NEFMC SSC members in July 2024 as well as the NEFMC SSC report on the SOE.
 
-We specifically request feedback on the following topics to improve the utility of the SOE for the Council:
-
-1.  Ecosystem level management objectives: Is the list complete? Does the Council have reference points, desired states, or other performance metrics we should address for each objective?
-2.  Current objective sections
-    *  Profits objective and appropriate indicators: Attached analysis with decision points
-    *  Stability objective: Are current indicators addressing Council needs?
-3.  Forecasts: What decisions or contexts would ocean forecasts be most useful for? What are desired characteristics of a forecast?
-
 We welcome comments on the entire SOE report as well as information included in this memo, and look forward to feedback from the SSC and Council.

SOE-response-memo/20250313-SOErespNEFMC-Caracappa.Rmd

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+---
+author:
+- Joseph Caracappa, PhD
+- Research Fishery Biologist
+- Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment Branch
+- Northeast Fisheries Science Center
+opening: To the SSC,
+closing: Sincerely,
+date: "`r format(Sys.time(), '%d %B, %Y')`"
+address:
+- New England Fishery Management Council
+- 50 Water Street, Mill 2
+- Newburyport, MA 01950
+encl:
+ - "State of the Ecosystem 2025: Request Tracking Memo"
+cc:
+- Jon Hare
+letterhead: letterhead/NEFSCletterhead.pdf
+signature: Signature/caracappa.pdf
+signature-before: -8ex
+
+output: linl::linl
+
+---
+
+In this memo we list comments and requests received on the 2019-2024 State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reports, and how we responded to those requests. We include comments from both Councils because adjustments to the report were made in response to both. We welcome feedback on whether this memo is useful and how to improve it for future SOE reporting.
+
+The attached document includes a table where we summarize all comments and requests with sources. Since 2023, the memo is organized into categories of requests in descending order of overall Council priority. The Rank column summarizes priority and was derived from combined discussion with the Mid-Atlantic SSC ecosystem working group and a survey of selected MAFMC members coordinated by Council staff in July 2022. Ranks were reviewed and updated by MAFMC and NEFMC SSC members in July 2024 as well as the NEFMC SSC report on the SOE.
+
+We specifically request feedback on the following topics to improve the utility of the SOE for the Council:
+
+1.  Ecosystem level management objectives: Is the list complete? Does the Council have reference points, desired states, or other performance metrics we should address for each objective?
+2.  Current objective sections
+    *  Profits objective and appropriate indicators: Attached analysis with decision points
+    *  Stability objective: Are current indicators addressing Council needs?
+3.  Forecasts: What decisions or contexts would ocean forecasts be most useful for? What are desired characteristics of a forecast?
+
+We welcome comments on the entire SOE report as well as information included in this memo, and look forward to feedback from the SSC and Council.

SOE-response-memo/20250313-SOErespNEFMCSSC-Caracappa.Rmd

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+"Aggregate","Request","Year","Rank","Source","Status","Progress"
+"System level thresholds/ref pts",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) ","2021","Highest","MAFMC SSC","In progress","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+NA,"Simulation analysis to gauge effectiveness of indicators (e.g. EOF testing)","2024","Highest","MAFMC SSC","In progress for EOF","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+NA,"Trend Analysis / Inflection / Break points / Early warning variance","2019 - 2024","Highest","Both Councils and SSCs","In SOE (trends)","New short term trend analysis included"
+NA,"Optimum yield for ecosystem","2021","Highest","NEFMC","In progress","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+NA,"Include standardized language about uncertainty from e.g. IPCC or NCA applicable to each indicator or data input","2024","Highest","NEFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Establish more links between events and consequences (e.g. temp ranges for more species)","2024","Highest","MAFMC SSC","In progress","Temperature threshold analysis in progress"
+NA,"How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all?","2021","High","MAFMC","In progress","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+NA,"Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC","2021, 2024","Moderate","MAFMC SSC","In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC","Seafood Production section in MA/ Need NEFMC support"
+NA,"Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC (particulate organic carbon) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indicators","2021, 2023","Low","MAFMC SSC","In SOE ","Benthos abuncance and distribution indices included"
+NA,"Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics","2020","Lowest","NEFMC","In progress","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+"Management",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Consider including additional indicators for risk policy/risk assessment processes","2024","Highest","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Indicators added to MAFMC EAFM risk assessment"
+NA,"Management complexity","2019","High","MAFMC","In progress","Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year"
+NA,"Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste","2021","High","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Re-evaluate EPUs","2020","Lowest","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+"Short term forecasts",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Short term forecasting from CEFI (water temp, productivity)","2022, 2024","Highest","NEFMC","Started but stopped","Comparing short term forecasts with observations"
+NA,"Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks","2022","High","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+"Regime shifts",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts","2021","High","MAFMC SSC","In progress","Individual projects started"
+NA,"Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators","2021","High","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Analysis planning with Mid SSC"
+NA,"Characterize current conditions in context of expected short term change","2024","Moderate","MAFMC","In progress","Language added to Future Considerations sections"
+"Multiple system drivers",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Profits vs Revenue: net revenue indicator incomplete and different trend from gross","2023-2024","Highest","Both Councils and SSCs","In progress","Profit calculation for subset of fleet"
+NA,"Clarify objectives, terminology and presentation for fishing community engagement/reliance/social indicators","2022, 2024","Highest","ECCCG, Both Councils and SSCs","In SOE","Social and cultural section"
+NA,"Time series of social indicators","2023-2024","Highest","NEFMC","In SOE","Community revenue total climate vulnerability"
+NA,"Consider appropriate scale for social and economic indicators","2024","Highest","MAFMC SSC","In SOE","Regional and community level indicators included"
+NA,"Add social and economic considerations in the Climate and Ecosystem risks section","2024","Highest","MAFMC SSC","In SOE","Climate risk to landings and revenue included"
+NA,"Include community affordability in port level vulnerability","2024","Highest","NEFMC","In Catalog","Economic and gentrification ranks by community included"
+NA,"Evaluate port level landings considering home port vs out of state vessel landings","2024","Highest","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Clarify community definitions and consider indicators beyond landings to employment, subsistence","2024","Highest","NEFMC SSC","In Catalog","Economic and gentrification ranks by community included"
+NA,"Linking Condition ","2020","High","MAFMC","In progress","Paper in prep"
+NA,"Avg weight of diet components by feeding group","2019","High","Internal","In progress","Part of fish condition project"
+NA,"Consider including indicators of predator prey relationships / predator pressure","2024","High","NEFMC","In progress","Risk indicators developed for MAFMC EAFM risk assessment"
+NA,"Cumulative weather index","2020","Moderate","MAFMC","In progress","Data gathered for prototype"
+NA,"Modeling cold pool/warm core ring and wind development interactions","2022","Moderate","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey)","2022","Moderate","NEFMC SSC","In Progress","MAFMC project initiated"
+NA,"Young of Year index from multiple surveys","2019","Moderate","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort?","2021","Unranked","MAFMC","In progress","Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses"
+NA,"Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories","2022","Unranked","GARFO","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"What determines a ""risk""? Include aquaculture as a risk?","2022","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Climate and Ecosystem Risks revision"
+NA,"OA linked to scallop harvest in areas where aragonite saturation is highlighted. ","2023","Unranked","Both Councils","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Stability indicator - yield over time in NE","2023","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Vessel-level diversity vs fleet level diversity","2023","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Inclusion of upcoming HMS climate vulnerability assessment","2023","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","Assessment not yet published"
+NA,"Report changes in small fish and large fish biomass along with production anomalies","2024","Unranked","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Aggregate surplus production and avg length of inds at recruitment age to productivity section","2024","Unranked","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Inclusion of additional environmental justice indicators from National Academies","2024","Unranked","MAFMC SSC","Not allowed","Prohibited by executive order"
+NA,"Distribution shifts: percent of species shifting in similar directions and magnitude of the change, id cross jurisdictional shifts","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Comparions of forage, benthos, zooplankton spatial trends"
+NA,"Track subsequent impacts of 2023 phytoplankton bloom in GOM","2024","Unranked","NEFMC","In progress","Research ongoing"
+NA,"Consider state managed fishery production instead of recreational shark harvest","2024","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Consider HMS recreational effort in effort trends","2024","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","HMS is developing indicators that may be useful"
+NA,"Consider HMS predation pressure","2024","Unranked","NEFMC","Not started","HMS is developing indicators that may be useful"
+NA,"Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds","2019","Low","MAFMC","In progress","Intern evaluated trends in guild diets"
+NA,"Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue?","2021","Low","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Relate OA to nutrient input; are there ""dead zones"" (hypoxia)?","2021","Low","MAFMC","In SOE","In new 2023 Highlights  section"
+NA,"Estuarine Water Quality","2020","Low","NEFMC","In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC","Student project linking menhaden to water quality"
+NA,"Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components","2021","Lowest","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters","2021","Lowest","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp","2019","Lowest","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+"Functional group level status/thresholds/ref pts",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"VAST and uncertainty ","2020","Moderate","Both Councils","In progress","Not ready for 2023"
+NA,"Consider expanding species included in seabird productivity indicators--Roseate tern","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Biomass+landings trends by (aggregated) Council managed species, stock status, cold vs warm water spp","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Council management added to species table"
+NA,"Seal index, Apex predator index (pinnipeds, time series of marine mammal species abundance","2020, 2021, 2024","Low","MAFMC","In progress","Protected species branch developing time series"
+NA,"Biomass of spp not included in BTS","2020","Lowest","MAFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+"Stock level indicators",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity)","2019","Moderate","MAFMC","In progress","Project with A. Hollander"
+NA,"Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls","2021","Moderate","NEFMC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Climate change impacts on NEFSC surveys - change in survey catchability","2023","Unranked","NEFMC","In progress","Varies by research track"
+NA,"Evaluate if NARW hotspots changing over time","2024","Unranked","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Update text around NARW trend drivers, specifically recent stabilization (for PSD)","2024","Unranked","MAFMC SSC Public comment","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Include cross references to stock specific products (ECSA/ESP), ensure consistent approaches","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Data engineering and coordinated indicator workgroup"
+NA,"Sturgeon Bycatch ","2021","Lowest","MAFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+"SOE admin",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+NA,"SOE usage tracking","2022-2023","Unranked","MAFMC SSC","In progress","Draft manuscript in progress"
+NA,"Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo","2022","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Reorganized memo to clarify project timing"
+NA,"Include statement on reliance on contributors for evaluation of data quality","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","Not started","Lacking resources this year"
+NA,"Establish criteria for inclusion of events in the Year Highlights section","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","In progress","Requested observations from fishers, managers, and scientists"
+NA,"More frequent indicator updates in web based product","2024","Unranked","NEFMC SSC","Not started","Had plans, lost personnel"