diff --git a/test/automation/pull-requests/pr-risk-plan.test.ts b/test/automation/pull-requests/pr-risk-plan.test.ts
index 9fae3fa4a31..5f38ed86e79 100644
--- a/test/automation/pull-requests/pr-risk-plan.test.ts
+++ b/test/automation/pull-requests/pr-risk-plan.test.ts
@@ -73,6 +73,45 @@ const HERMES_WRAPPER_FOCUSED_JOBS = [
   "security-posture",
 ];
 const HERMES_WRAPPER_REQUIRED_JOBS = [...HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_REQUIRED_JOBS, "mcp-bridge"];
+const SHARED_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS = [
+  "channels-add-remove",
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "messaging-providers",
+  "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+  "openclaw-slack-pairing",
+];
+const HERMES_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS = [
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "messaging-providers",
+];
+const OPENCLAW_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS = [
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "messaging-providers",
+  "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+  "openclaw-slack-pairing",
+];
+const HERMES_START_FOCUSED_JOBS = [
+  "bedrock-runtime-compatible-anthropic",
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "dashboard-remote-bind",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "hermes-e2e",
+  "hermes-inference-switch",
+  "hermes-shields-config",
+  "messaging-providers",
+  "security-posture",
+];
+const HERMES_START_REQUIRED_JOBS = [
+  ...HERMES_SANDBOX_BOUNDARY_JOBS,
+  "bedrock-runtime-compatible-anthropic",
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "dashboard-remote-bind",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "hermes-shields-config",
+  "messaging-providers",
+];
 const HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_FILES = [
   "agents/hermes/config/managed-policy.ts",
   "agents/hermes/hermes-wrapper.py",
@@ -110,7 +149,7 @@ describe("deterministic PR risk plan", () => {
     const second = plan("src/lib/onboard.ts", "src/lib/state/registry.ts");
 
     expect(first).toEqual(second);
-    expect(first.version).toBe(19);
+    expect(first.version).toBe(20);
     expect(first.headSha).toBe(HEAD_SHA);
     expect(first.planHash).toMatch(/^[a-f0-9]{64}$/u);
     expect(first.changedFiles).toEqual(["src/lib/onboard.ts", "src/lib/state/registry.ts"]);
@@ -320,12 +359,16 @@ describe("deterministic PR risk plan", () => {
     const isWrapper = changedFile === "agents/hermes/hermes-wrapper.py";
     const expectedFocusedJobs = isWrapper
       ? HERMES_WRAPPER_FOCUSED_JOBS
-      : HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_JOBS;
+      : changedFile === "agents/hermes/start.sh"
+        ? HERMES_START_FOCUSED_JOBS
+        : HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_JOBS;
     const expectedRequiredJobs = isWrapper
       ? HERMES_WRAPPER_REQUIRED_JOBS
       : changedFile === "src/lib/hermes-managed-route.ts"
         ? HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_JOBS
-        : HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_REQUIRED_JOBS;
+        : changedFile === "agents/hermes/start.sh"
+          ? HERMES_START_REQUIRED_JOBS
+          : HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_REQUIRED_JOBS;
 
     const focusedFamily = result.families.find((family) => family.id === "focused-e2e");
     expect(focusedFamily).toEqual(
@@ -362,6 +405,69 @@ describe("deterministic PR risk plan", () => {
     );
     expect(riskPlanRequiredJobIds(result)).toEqual(HERMES_WRAPPER_REQUIRED_JOBS);
   });
+
+  it.each([
+    "src/lib/messaging/applier/openshell-provider.ts",
+    "src/lib/onboard/credential-provider-registration.ts",
+    "src/lib/onboard/messaging-policy-presets.ts",
+  ])("selects the full messaging runtime proof set for %s (#10153)", (changedFile) => {
+    const result = plan(changedFile);
+    const focusedFamily = result.families.find((family) => family.id === "focused-e2e");
+
+    expect(focusedFamily?.matchedFiles).toContain(changedFile);
+    expect(focusedFamily?.requiredJobs).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining(SHARED_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS),
+    );
+    expect(riskPlanRequiredJobIds(result)).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining(SHARED_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS),
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("selects OpenClaw pairing and restart proofs for OpenClaw startup changes (#10153)", () => {
+    const changedFile = "scripts/nemoclaw-start.sh";
+    const result = plan(changedFile);
+    const focusedFamily = result.families.find((family) => family.id === "focused-e2e");
+
+    expect(focusedFamily?.matchedFiles).toEqual([changedFile]);
+    expect(focusedFamily?.requiredJobs).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining([...OPENCLAW_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS, "shields-config"]),
+    );
+    expect(riskPlanRequiredJobIds(result)).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining([...OPENCLAW_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS, "shields-config"]),
+    );
+  });
+
+  it.each([
+    "scripts/runtime-state-mutation-control.py",
+    "src/lib/onboard/runtime-provider/docker-state-mutation.ts",
+    "src/lib/shields/relock-reconfirm.ts",
+  ])("selects both Shields runtime proofs for %s (#10155)", (changedFile) => {
+    const result = plan(changedFile);
+    const focusedFamily = result.families.find((family) => family.id === "focused-e2e");
+
+    expect(focusedFamily?.matchedFiles).toContain(changedFile);
+    expect(focusedFamily?.requiredJobs).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining(["hermes-shields-config", "shields-config"]),
+    );
+    expect(riskPlanRequiredJobIds(result)).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining(["hermes-shields-config", "shields-config"]),
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("selects Hermes Shields and messaging proofs for the shared Hermes runtime guard (#10155)", () => {
+    const changedFile = "agents/hermes/runtime-config-guard.py";
+    const result = plan(changedFile);
+    const focusedFamily = result.families.find((family) => family.id === "focused-e2e");
+
+    expect(focusedFamily?.matchedFiles).toEqual([changedFile]);
+    expect(focusedFamily?.requiredJobs).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining([...HERMES_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS, "hermes-shields-config"]),
+    );
+    expect(riskPlanRequiredJobIds(result)).toEqual(
+      expect.arrayContaining([...HERMES_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOBS, "hermes-shields-config"]),
+    );
+  });
+
   it("leaves E2E support-only changes in the fast e2e-support project (#7921)", () => {
     const changedFiles = ["test/e2e/support/workflow-plan.test.ts"];
     const focusedE2eJobs = focusedE2eJobsForChangedFiles(changedFiles);
@@ -989,11 +1095,15 @@ describe("deterministic PR risk plan", () => {
       "channels-add-remove",
       "channels-stop-start",
       "full-e2e",
+      "hermes-discord",
       "hermes-e2e",
       "inference-routing",
+      "messaging-providers",
       "network-policy",
       "onboard-repair",
       "onboard-resume",
+      "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+      "openclaw-slack-pairing",
       "rebuild-openclaw",
       "state-backup-restore",
     ]);
diff --git a/test/e2e/support/workflow-plan.test.ts b/test/e2e/support/workflow-plan.test.ts
index 19da31a1e3f..997cbc20900 100644
--- a/test/e2e/support/workflow-plan.test.ts
+++ b/test/e2e/support/workflow-plan.test.ts
@@ -789,7 +789,7 @@ describe("E2E workflow plan", () => {
     expect(targetIds).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining(["onboard-repair", "onboard-resume"]));
   });
 
-  it("uses one risk rule for catalogue targets and workflow jobs", () => {
+  it("selects the full messaging proof set for messaging runtime changes", () => {
     const plan = buildE2eWorkflowPlan(
       {},
       { changedFiles: ["src/lib/messaging/applier/agent-config.ts"] },
@@ -797,11 +797,30 @@ describe("E2E workflow plan", () => {
 
     expect(plan.catalogueMatrices.standard.map((row) => row.id)).toContain("channels-add-remove");
     expect(plan.catalogueMatrices["nvidia-inference"].map((row) => row.id)).toEqual(
-      expect.arrayContaining(["channels-stop-start-openclaw", "channels-stop-start-hermes"]),
+      expect.arrayContaining([
+        "channels-stop-start-openclaw",
+        "channels-stop-start-hermes",
+        "hermes-discord",
+        "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+        "openclaw-slack-pairing",
+      ]),
     );
+    expect(plan.selectedJobs).toContain("messaging-providers");
     expect(plan.selectedJobs).not.toContain("channels-stop-start");
   });
 
+  it("selects both Shields proof lanes for shared Shields runtime changes", () => {
+    const plan = buildE2eWorkflowPlan(
+      {},
+      { changedFiles: ["src/lib/shields/relock-reconfirm.ts"] },
+    );
+
+    expect(plan.catalogueMatrices.standard.map((row) => row.id)).toContain("hermes-shields-config");
+    expect(plan.catalogueMatrices["nvidia-inference"].map((row) => row.id)).toContain(
+      "shields-config",
+    );
+  });
+
   it.each(["jobs", "targets"] as const)(
     "maps the retired Hermes dashboard %s selector to the canonical lane",
     (kind) => {
diff --git a/tools/advisors/risk-plan.mts b/tools/advisors/risk-plan.mts
index 4f7dbc32401..9d32687c94e 100644
--- a/tools/advisors/risk-plan.mts
+++ b/tools/advisors/risk-plan.mts
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ const protectedManagedImageContract = (
 const { PROTECTED_MANAGED_IMAGE_ACTIVATION_PATH, PROTECTED_MANAGED_IMAGE_MULTIARCH_JOB_ID } =
   protectedManagedImageContract;
 
-export const RISK_PLAN_VERSION = 19 as const;
+export const RISK_PLAN_VERSION = 20 as const;
 
 export const PR_E2E_TYPED_TARGET_IDS = [
   "ubuntu-repo-cloud-langchain-deepagents-code",
@@ -105,6 +105,56 @@ const HERMES_MANAGED_POLICY_FILES = new Set([
   "agents/hermes/start.sh",
   "src/lib/hermes-managed-route.ts",
 ]);
+const SHARED_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS = [
+  "channels-add-remove",
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "messaging-providers",
+  "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+  "openclaw-slack-pairing",
+] as const;
+const HERMES_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS = [
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "hermes-discord",
+  "messaging-providers",
+] as const;
+const OPENCLAW_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS = [
+  "channels-stop-start",
+  "messaging-providers",
+  "openclaw-discord-pairing",
+  "openclaw-slack-pairing",
+] as const;
+const MESSAGING_RUNTIME_FILES = new Set([
+  "src/lib/actions/sandbox/rebuild-backup-phase.ts",
+  "src/lib/actions/sandbox/rebuild-target-runtime.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/credential-provider-registration.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/extra-placeholder-keys.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/gateway-provider-metadata.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/messaging-policy-presets.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/messaging-prep.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/policy-preset-persistence.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/policy-preset-reconciliation.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/policy-selection.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/providers.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/sandbox-create-plan-materialization.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/sandbox-create/provider-publication.ts",
+  "src/lib/onboard/sandbox-messaging-preflight.ts",
+]);
+const MESSAGING_RUNTIME_PREFIXES = [
+  "src/lib/actions/sandbox/policy-channel",
+  "src/lib/messaging/",
+] as const;
+const SHARED_SHIELDS_E2E_JOB_IDS = ["hermes-shields-config", "shields-config"] as const;
+const SHARED_SHIELDS_RUNTIME_FILES = new Set([
+  "scripts/runtime-state-mutation-control.py",
+  "scripts/runtime-state-mutation-startup-gate.py",
+  "src/lib/onboard/runtime-provider/docker-state-mutation.ts",
+]);
+const HERMES_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES = new Set([
+  "agents/hermes/runtime-config-guard.py",
+  "agents/hermes/start.sh",
+]);
+const OPENCLAW_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES = new Set(["scripts/nemoclaw-start.sh"]);
 const MANAGED_IMAGE_PROTECTED_RUNTIME_ACTIVATION =
   "ci/protected-managed-image-runtime-activation-v1.json";
 const MANAGED_IMAGE_PROTECTED_RUNTIME_JOB_ID = "managed-image-protected-runtime" as const;
@@ -340,6 +390,41 @@ export function focusedPrE2eJobsForChangedFiles(
         isRuntimeRelevant(file),
     ),
   );
+  const messagingRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) =>
+        (MESSAGING_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file) ||
+          MESSAGING_RUNTIME_PREFIXES.some((prefix) => file.startsWith(prefix))) &&
+        isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
+  const hermesMessagingRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) => HERMES_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file) && isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
+  const openClawMessagingRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) => OPENCLAW_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file) && isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
+  const sharedShieldsRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) =>
+        (file.startsWith("src/lib/shields/") || SHARED_SHIELDS_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file)) &&
+        isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
+  const hermesShieldsRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) => HERMES_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file) && isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
+  const openClawShieldsRuntimeFiles = stableUnique(
+    changedFiles.filter(
+      (file) => OPENCLAW_STARTUP_RUNTIME_FILES.has(file) && isRuntimeRelevant(file),
+    ),
+  );
   return [
     ...(journaledRecreateResumeFiles.length > 0
       ? [
@@ -365,6 +450,30 @@ export function focusedPrE2eJobsForChangedFiles(
       id,
       matchedFiles: hermesManagedPolicyFiles,
     })),
+    ...SHARED_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS.map((id) => ({
+      id,
+      matchedFiles: messagingRuntimeFiles,
+    })),
+    ...HERMES_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS.map((id) => ({
+      id,
+      matchedFiles: hermesMessagingRuntimeFiles,
+    })),
+    ...OPENCLAW_MESSAGING_RUNTIME_E2E_JOB_IDS.map((id) => ({
+      id,
+      matchedFiles: openClawMessagingRuntimeFiles,
+    })),
+    ...SHARED_SHIELDS_E2E_JOB_IDS.map((id) => ({
+      id,
+      matchedFiles: sharedShieldsRuntimeFiles,
+    })),
+    {
+      id: "hermes-shields-config",
+      matchedFiles: hermesShieldsRuntimeFiles,
+    },
+    {
+      id: "shields-config",
+      matchedFiles: openClawShieldsRuntimeFiles,
+    },
   ].filter((selection) => selection.matchedFiles.length > 0);
 }