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# Overview
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### OIPD (Options-implied Probability Distribution) provides 2 capabilities:
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OIPD answers a simple question: **what future price distribution is the options market implying right now?** While markets don't predict the future with certainty, under the efficient market view, these market expectations represent the best available estimate of what might happen.
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**1. Compute market-implied probability distributions of future asset prices.**
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- While markets don't predict the future with certainty, under the efficient market view, these market expectations represent the best available estimate of what might happen.
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It does this by taking listed options data, fitting an arbitrage-free implied volatility curve or surface, and then transforming that fitted object into a probability distribution over future asset prices. In practice, that provides two core capabilities in one library:
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- **Volatility modeling:** fit single-expiry smiles and multi-expiry volatility surfaces for pricing and risk work.
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- **Probability extraction:** compute market-implied probability distributions, cumulative probabilities, quantiles, and distributional moments from those fitted volatility objects.
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<p align="center" style="margin-top: 80px;">
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<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability/main/.meta/images/example.png" alt="example" style="width:100%; max-width:1200px; height:auto; display:block; margin-top:50px;" />
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</p>
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**2. Fit arbitrage-free volatility smiles and surfaces for pricing and risk analysis.**
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- Fitting a vol surface well is a complex and expensive process, with the leading software provider costing $50k USD/month/seat. OIPD open-sources the entire pipeline fairly rigorously, with further improvements in the roadmap.
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<table align="center" cellspacing="12" style="margin-top:120px; width:100%; border-collapse:separate;">
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