Get running microsim

Author: nikhilwoodruff

docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.ipynb

@@ -47,12 +47,12 @@ Each of the variables above is either derived from other variables, or is a dire
 |----------|-------|-------|
 | `employment_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.employment_income | Uprated based on OBR per capita employment income projections |
 | `self_employment_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.mixed_income | Uprated based on OBR per capita mixed income projections |
-| `dividend_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
+| `dividend_income` | gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
 | `hbai_benefits` | Various | Different benefits use different uprating indices, mostly gov.obr.consumer_price_index |
 | `private_pension_income` | gov.obr.private_pension_index | Uprated based on OBR private pension index |
-| `savings_interest_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
-| `property_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
-| `maintenance_income` | gov.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
+| `savings_interest_income` | gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
+| `property_income` | gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
+| `maintenance_income` | gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp | Uprated based on OBR per capita GDP projections |
 | `student_payments` | Not uprated directly | Currently no specific uprating for student payments |
 | `free_school_meals` |gov.obr.consumer_price_index | Uprated based on CPI inflation |
 | `free_school_fruit_veg` | gov.obr.consumer_price_index | Uprated based on CPI inflation |
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ Each of the variables above is either derived from other variables, or is a dire
 | `employee_pension_contributions` | gov.obr.per_capita.employment_income | Uprated based on per capita employment income growth |
 | `personal_pension_contributions` | gov.obr.per_capita.employment_income | Uprated based on per capita employment income growth |
 | `maintenance_expenses` | gov.obr.consumer_price_index | Uprated based on CPI inflation |
-| `student_loan_repayments` | gov.obr.average_earnings | Uprated based on OBR average earnings projections |
+| `student_loan_repayments` | gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings | Uprated based on OBR average earnings projections |
 | `rent` | gov.obr.rent | Uprated based on OBR rent projections |
 | `water_and_sewerage_charges` | gov.obr.consumer_price_index | Uprated based on CPI as proxy |
 | `mortgage_interest_repayment` | gov.obr.mortgage_interest | Uprated based on OBR mortgage interest projections |

docs/book/validation/hbai.md

@@ -3,8 +3,8 @@ afcs_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,
 alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 attendance_allowance_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 bsp_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-capital_gains,gov.obr.non_labour_income,0,0.072,0.138,0.066,0.08,0.068,0.056,0.045,0.034,0.035
-capital_gains_before_response,gov.obr.non_labour_income,0,0.072,0.138,0.066,0.08,0.068,0.056,0.045,0.034,0.035
+capital_gains,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.072,0.138,0.066,0.08,0.068,0.056,0.045,0.034,0.035
+capital_gains_before_response,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.072,0.138,0.066,0.08,0.068,0.056,0.045,0.034,0.035
 carers_allowance_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 child_benefit_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 child_tax_credit_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
@@ -14,15 +14,15 @@ communication_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023
 corporate_wealth,household.wealth.corporate_wealth,0,0.0,-0.109,0.004,0.03,0.031,0.035,0.035,0.035,0.0
 council_tax,gov.obr.council_tax,0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.064,0.046,0.045,0.046,0.045,0.045
 diesel_spending,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-dividend_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+dividend_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 dla_m_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 dla_sc_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 domestic_energy_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 education_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-employee_pension_contributions,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
-employer_pension_contributions,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
-employment_income,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
-employment_income_before_lsr,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+employee_pension_contributions,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+employer_pension_contributions,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+employment_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+employment_income_before_lsr,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
 esa_contrib_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 esa_income_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
@@ -40,43 +40,43 @@ incapacity_benefit_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.0
 income_support_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 jsa_contrib_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 jsa_income_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-lump_sum_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+lump_sum_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 main_residence_value,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
 maintenance_expenses,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-maintenance_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+maintenance_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 maternity_allowance_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 miscellaneous_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-miscellaneous_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+miscellaneous_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 mortgage_capital_repayment,gov.obr.house_prices,0,0.082,0.083,-0.01,0.027,0.024,0.025,0.026,0.023,0.024
 mortgage_interest_repayment,gov.obr.mortgage_interest,0,0.003,0.262,0.485,0.221,0.136,0.126,0.082,0.042,0.047
 net_financial_wealth,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
 non_residential_property_value,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
-other_investment_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+other_investment_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 other_residential_property_value,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
 owned_land,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
 pension_credit_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-pension_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
-personal_pension_contributions,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+pension_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+personal_pension_contributions,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
 petrol_spending,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 pip_dl_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 pip_m_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 private_pension_income,gov.obr.private_pension_index,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.033,0.042,0.03,0.03,0.029,0.028
-private_transfer_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
-property_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+private_transfer_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+property_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 recreation_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 rent,gov.obr.rent,0,0.018,0.04,0.063,0.074,0.057,0.036,0.027,0.023,0.024
 restaurants_and_hotels_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 savings,household.wealth.financial_assets,0,0.014,-0.108,0.004,0.03,0.032,0.034,0.034,0.036,0.0
-savings_interest_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+savings_interest_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 sda_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 self_employment_income,gov.obr.per_capita.mixed_income,0,0.06,0.063,0.024,0.048,0.047,0.031,0.031,0.036,0.038
 state_pension,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 state_pension_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 statutory_maternity_pay,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 statutory_paternity_pay,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 statutory_sick_pay,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
-student_loan_repayments,gov.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
-sublet_income,gov.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
+student_loan_repayments,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.average_earnings,0,0.058,0.065,0.068,0.047,0.038,0.021,0.021,0.023,0.025
+sublet_income,gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp,0,0.125,0.092,0.05,0.038,0.028,0.028,0.031,0.033,0.033
 transport_consumption,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 universal_credit_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02
 winter_fuel_allowance_reported,gov.obr.consumer_price_index,0,0.039,0.101,0.057,0.023,0.032,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02

policyengine_uk/data/uprating_growth_factors.csv

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 description: Most recent September CPIH index value, updated for each uprating occurrence (2005=100)
 values:
   2005-01-01: 100
+  2010-01-01: 114.48
 metadata:
   label: Benefit uprating index
   uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/benefit_uprating_cpi.yaml

@@ -3,15 +3,15 @@
     Parameter,
 )
 
-YEARS = list(range(2010, 2035))
+YEARS = list(range(2020, 2035))
 
 
 def add_private_pension_uprating_factor(
     parameters: ParameterNode,
 ) -> ParameterNode:
     values = {}
-    rpi = parameters.gov.obr.rpi
-    last_value = rpi(2008)
+    rpi = parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.rpi
+    last_value = rpi(YEARS[0] - 1)
     for year in YEARS:
         value = rpi(year - 1)
         rel_change = value / rpi(year - 2)
@@ -20,11 +20,13 @@ def add_private_pension_uprating_factor(
         last_value = new_index
         values[f"{year}-01-01"] = new_index
     new_parameter = Parameter(
-        "gov.obr.private_pension_index",
+        "gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.private_pension_index",
         data={
             "values": values,
         },
     )
 
-    parameters.gov.obr.add_child("private_pension_index", new_parameter)
+    parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.add_child(
+        "private_pension_index", new_parameter
+    )
     return parameters

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/create_private_pension_uprating.py

@@ -5,7 +5,9 @@
 )
 
 
-def create_economic_assumption_indices(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNode:
+def create_economic_assumption_indices(
+    parameters: ParameterNode,
+) -> ParameterNode:
     econ_assumptions: ParameterNode = parameters.gov.economic_assumptions
     yoy_growth: ParameterNode = econ_assumptions.yoy_growth
     indices = ParameterNode(
@@ -18,7 +20,9 @@ def create_economic_assumption_indices(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNo
     )
 
     for descendant in yoy_growth.get_descendants():
-        parent_node = parameters.get_child(descendant.parent.name.replace("yoy_growth", "indices"))
+        parent_node = parameters.get_child(
+            descendant.parent.name.replace("yoy_growth", "indices")
+        )
         full_name = descendant.name
         child_name = full_name.split(".")[-1]
         if isinstance(descendant, ParameterNode):
@@ -32,9 +36,7 @@ def create_economic_assumption_indices(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNo
             )
         else:
             start_year = int(descendant.values_list[-1].instant_str[:4])
-            values = {
-                start_year: 1.0
-            }
+            values = {start_year: 1.0}
 
             for year in range(start_year + 1, 2030):
                 yoy_growth = descendant(year)
@@ -43,7 +45,7 @@ def create_economic_assumption_indices(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNo
                     5,
                 )
                 values[year] = indices_value
-            
+
             mirror_parameter = Parameter(
                 name=descendant.name.replace("yoy_growth", "indices"),
                 data={
@@ -59,5 +61,6 @@ def create_economic_assumption_indices(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNo
                 mirror_parameter,
             )
 
-    print(parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices)
+    print(indices)
+
     return parameters

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/create_economic_assumption_indices.py

@@ -1,4 +1,34 @@
 obr:
+  rpi:
+    description: Retail price index year-on-year growth.
+    values:
+      2009-01-01: 0.018
+      2010-01-01: 0.008
+      2011-01-01: 0.016
+      2012-01-01: 0.007
+      2013-01-01: 0.047
+      2014-01-01: 0.006
+      2015-01-01: 0.020
+      2016-01-01: 0.024
+      2017-01-01: 0.032
+      2018-01-01: 0.026
+      2019-01-01: 0.022
+      2020-01-01: 0.003
+      2021-01-01: 0.059
+      2022-01-01: 0.064
+      2023-01-01: 0.069
+      2024-01-01: 0.047
+      2025-01-01: 0.037
+      2026-01-01: 0.022
+      2027-01-01: 0.021
+      2028-01-01: 0.023
+      2029-01-01: 0.025
+    metadata:
+      unit: /1
+      label: retail price index growth
+      reference:
+        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
+          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
   average_earnings:
     description: Average earnings year-on-year growth.
     values:

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   name: fuel_duty_rate
   label: Fuel duty rate (petrol and diesel)
-  uprating: gov.ons.rpi
+  uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.rpi
   reference:
     - title: Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979 s. 6
       href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 description: ONS National Balance Sheet statistics on wealth
 household:
   metadata:
-    uprating: gov.obr.non_labor_income
+    uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.per_capita.gdp
   financial_net_worth:
     values:
       2019-01-01: 4_556_770_000_000

policyengine_uk/parameters/household/wealth/national_balance_sheet.yaml

@@ -12,7 +12,9 @@
     backdate_parameters,
     convert_to_fiscal_year_parameters,
 )
-from policyengine_uk.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.create_economic_assumption_indices import create_economic_assumption_indices
+from policyengine_uk.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.create_economic_assumption_indices import (
+    create_economic_assumption_indices,
+)
 from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform
 from policyengine_uk.reforms import create_structural_reforms_from_parameters
 
@@ -56,6 +58,7 @@ class CountryTaxBenefitSystem(TaxBenefitSystem):
     def process_parameters(self, reform=None):
         self.parameters = create_economic_assumption_indices(self.parameters)
         self.parameters = add_triple_lock(self.parameters)
+        self.parameters = add_private_pension_uprating_factor(self.parameters)
         self.parameters.add_child("baseline", self.parameters.clone())
         if reform:
             self.apply_reform_set(reform)