|
| 1 | +{ |
| 2 | + "cells": [ |
| 3 | + { |
| 4 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 5 | + "id": "45ced776f13fa728", |
| 6 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 7 | + "source": [ |
| 8 | + "# Predicting Chronic Heart Failure" |
| 9 | + ] |
| 10 | + }, |
| 11 | + { |
| 12 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 13 | + "id": "a90a7b680d9be480", |
| 14 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 15 | + "source": [ |
| 16 | + "## Clinical Use Case\n", |
| 17 | + "\n", |
| 18 | + "Patients admitted with **myocardial infarction (MI)** are at risk of\n", |
| 19 | + "developing a range of complications, including **chronic heart failure (CHF)**.\n", |
| 20 | + "\n", |
| 21 | + "Chronic heart failure is a serious condition that can significantly impair\n", |
| 22 | + "quality of life and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.\n", |
| 23 | + "\n", |
| 24 | + "Following an acute myocardial infarction, some patients recover without\n", |
| 25 | + "long-term consequences, while others develop progressive cardiac dysfunction\n", |
| 26 | + "leading to heart failure.\n", |
| 27 | + "\n", |
| 28 | + "Early identification of patients at risk of developing chronic heart failure\n", |
| 29 | + "is challenging, even for experienced clinicians, but highly relevant for\n", |
| 30 | + "optimizing treatment and improving long-term outcomes.\n", |
| 31 | + "\n", |
| 32 | + "---\n", |
| 33 | + "\n", |
| 34 | + "**Goal of this analysis:**\n", |
| 35 | + "\n", |
| 36 | + "Build a machine learning model that predicts whether a patient will\n", |
| 37 | + "develop **chronic heart failure** during hospitalization.\n", |
| 38 | + "\n", |
| 39 | + "You can download the dataset of myocardial infarction complications from the University of Leicester here:\n", |
| 40 | + "https://figshare.le.ac.uk/ndownloader/files/23581310\n", |
| 41 | + "\n", |
| 42 | + "---\n", |
| 43 | + "\n", |
| 44 | + "## About the Dataset\n", |
| 45 | + "\n", |
| 46 | + "This dataset contains clinical information about patients admitted with\n", |
| 47 | + "myocardial infarction and was designed to evaluate real-world medical\n", |
| 48 | + "prediction problems.\n", |
| 49 | + "\n", |
| 50 | + "Variables include:\n", |
| 51 | + "\n", |
| 52 | + "- demographic data\n", |
| 53 | + "- medical history\n", |
| 54 | + "- ECG findings\n", |
| 55 | + "- laboratory values\n", |
| 56 | + "- treatment information\n", |
| 57 | + "\n", |
| 58 | + "Possible complications are stored in the target variables.\n", |
| 59 | + "\n", |
| 60 | + "In this notebook, we focus on predicting:\n", |
| 61 | + "\n", |
| 62 | + "**Chronic Heart Failure**\n", |
| 63 | + "\n", |
| 64 | + "Additional information about the dataset, including variable descriptions, can be found here:\n", |
| 65 | + "https://doi.org/10.25392/leicester.data.12045261\n", |
| 66 | + "\n", |
| 67 | + "---\n", |
| 68 | + "\n", |
| 69 | + "**Important methodological aspect**\n", |
| 70 | + "\n", |
| 71 | + "The dataset allows prediction at **different time points during the hospital stay**:\n", |
| 72 | + "\n", |
| 73 | + "1. At admission\n", |
| 74 | + "2. After 24 hours\n", |
| 75 | + "3. After 48 hours\n", |
| 76 | + "4. After 72 hours\n", |
| 77 | + "\n", |
| 78 | + "Depending on the chosen time point, **different variables are available**.\n", |
| 79 | + "\n", |
| 80 | + "For this exercise, you must **decide on one time point** and\n", |
| 81 | + "**adapt your feature selection accordingly**.\n", |
| 82 | + "\n", |
| 83 | + "For example:\n", |
| 84 | + "\n", |
| 85 | + "- If you predict at **admission**, you may only use variables available at admission\n", |
| 86 | + "- Later time points allow more information, but also introduce the risk of **data leakage**\n", |
| 87 | + "\n", |
| 88 | + "This reflects a key challenge in clinical machine learning:\n", |
| 89 | + "\n", |
| 90 | + "> Predictions must be based only on information that is available at the time the decision is made.\n", |
| 91 | + "\n", |
| 92 | + "---\n", |
| 93 | + "\n", |
| 94 | + "**Potential clinical use:**\n", |
| 95 | + "\n", |
| 96 | + "- early identification of patients at risk of chronic heart failure\n", |
| 97 | + "- timely initiation of preventive or therapeutic interventions\n", |
| 98 | + "- improved long-term management and follow-up planning\n", |
| 99 | + "\n" |
| 100 | + ] |
| 101 | + }, |
| 102 | + { |
| 103 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 104 | + "id": "adba14f57b7e6300", |
| 105 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 106 | + "source": [ |
| 107 | + "## Your Tasks\n", |
| 108 | + "\n", |
| 109 | + "- Load and explore the dataset to understand its structure and contents\n", |
| 110 | + "- Decide at which time point you want to predict the ventricular fibrillation (target variable = \"FIBR_JELUD\") \\\n", |
| 111 | + " Adjust your feature selection accordingly\n", |
| 112 | + "- Prepare the data for machine learning\n", |
| 113 | + "- Train and compare different models (e.g. Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGB)\n", |
| 114 | + "- Evaluate model performance using appropriate metrics\n", |
| 115 | + "- Interpret your results and reflect on their clinical relevance" |
| 116 | + ] |
| 117 | + }, |
| 118 | + { |
| 119 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 120 | + "execution_count": null, |
| 121 | + "id": "1cea35a00ae1f801", |
| 122 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 123 | + "outputs": [], |
| 124 | + "source": [ |
| 125 | + "# Import bia-bob as a helpful Python & Medical AI expert\n", |
| 126 | + "from bia_bob import bob\n", |
| 127 | + "import os\n", |
| 128 | + "\n", |
| 129 | + "bob.initialize(\n", |
| 130 | + " endpoint=os.getenv('ENDPOINT_URL'),\n", |
| 131 | + " model=\"vllm-llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct\",\n", |
| 132 | + " system_prompt=os.getenv('SYSTEM_PROMPT_MEDICAL_AI')\n", |
| 133 | + ")" |
| 134 | + ] |
| 135 | + }, |
| 136 | + { |
| 137 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 138 | + "execution_count": null, |
| 139 | + "id": "e70c2e2c406e2035", |
| 140 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 141 | + "outputs": [], |
| 142 | + "source": [ |
| 143 | + "# %bob Who are you? Just one sentence!" |
| 144 | + ] |
| 145 | + } |
| 146 | + ], |
| 147 | + "metadata": { |
| 148 | + "kernelspec": { |
| 149 | + "display_name": "Python 3", |
| 150 | + "language": "python", |
| 151 | + "name": "python3" |
| 152 | + }, |
| 153 | + "language_info": { |
| 154 | + "codemirror_mode": { |
| 155 | + "name": "ipython", |
| 156 | + "version": 2 |
| 157 | + }, |
| 158 | + "file_extension": ".py", |
| 159 | + "mimetype": "text/x-python", |
| 160 | + "name": "python", |
| 161 | + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", |
| 162 | + "pygments_lexer": "ipython2", |
| 163 | + "version": "2.7.6" |
| 164 | + } |
| 165 | + }, |
| 166 | + "nbformat": 4, |
| 167 | + "nbformat_minor": 5 |
| 168 | +} |
0 commit comments