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<div>
<p class="warning browser-head-warning" id="browser-warning">
⚠️ Warning: Your browser may not be supported or is out of date. Though we try to test across multiple devices and browsers, we have not tried it on your specific version. If you run into issues, please consider using <a href="https://www.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/new/">Firefox</a> or updating your browser.
</p>
<p class="warning browser-head-warning fallback-warning" id="fallback-warning-3">
⚠️ Warning: An application update is available. Please <a href="#update" id="update-link" onclick="location.reload(true);">click here to update the application</a>.
</p>
<div id="loading-indicator">
<!-- Thanks https://github.com/vineethtrv/css-loader/blob/master/LICENSE -->
<span class="loader"></span> Loading please wait...
</div>
<div id="loaded">
<nav>
<ul data-tabs>
<li><a data-tabby-default href="#overview">Overview</a></li>
<li><a href="#detailed">Details</a></li>
<li><a href="#simulation">Simulation</a></li>
<li><a href="#settings">Settings</a></li>
<li><a href="#downloads">Downloads</a></li>
<li><a href="#guide">Guide</a></li>
<li><a href="#about">About</a></li>
<li><a href="#toc">Contents</a></li>
</ul>
</nav>
<main id="main">
<section id="overview" class="overview">
<div class="panel overview-panel" id="overview-panel">
<div class="tutorial">
<p class="info">
ℹ️ This is the detailed continuation of <a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/">our interactive introduction</a> which overviews the opportunities of a global plastics treaty.
</p>
<p class="tutorial-cta">🏁 Start here:</p>
<p>
Exploring plastics outcomes under different policy scenarios, this tool starts with mismanaged waste like plastic in the ocean. This overview tab allows you to combine different high level policies to reduce waste. Note that this is a "pre-print" model. Things may shift during the publication process.
</p>
<div class="tutorial-next">
<a class="tutorial-next-button" href="#raw-scorecard">Close Message</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="overview-section cumulative-toggle">
<h2 class="post-intro post-intro-early interactive-h2" id="overview-anchor-selector" aria-label="Overview">
Overview Showing Plastic
<span class="sel"><select class="goal-select" id="overview-goal-select" aria-label="Metric dropdown">
<option value="mismanagedWaste" selected>Mismanaged Waste</option>
<option value="incineratedWaste">Incinerated Waste</option>
<option value="landfillWaste">Landfill Waste</option>
</select></span>
as
<span class="sel"><select class="metric-select" aria-label="Treatment dropdown">
<option value="annual" selected>Annual</option>
<option value="cumulative">Cumulative from 2011 in</option>
<option value="reference">Annual Difference to 2023 in</option>
</select></span>
Million Metric Tons.
</h2>
<h2 class="static-h2">Overview</h2>
</div>
<section class="scorecard overview-section raw-scorecard" id="raw-scorecard">
<div id="overview-anchor-summary">
<div class="post-intro">
<h3>Global <span class="year">2049</span> Plastics Projections</h3>
</div>
<div class="cards">
<div class="card mismanaged-waste-card post-intro post-intro-early" goal="mismanagedWaste">
<div class="title"><label for="mismanaged-radio-overview-top">Mismanaged Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Sometimes called leakage, this concerning plastic waste category may more readily enter into waterways and the built environment."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="mismanaged-radio-overview-top" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-top" value="mismanaged" ></div>
</div>
<div class="card incinerated-waste-card post-intro" goal="incineratedWaste">
<div class="title"><label for="incinerated-radio-overview-top">Incinerated Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Plastic waste which is managed but incincerated as opposed to recycled or sent to landfill."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="incinerated-radio-overview-top" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-top" value="incinerated" ></div>
</div>
<div class="card landfill-waste-card post-intro" goal="landfillWaste">
<div class="title"><label for="landfill-radio-overview-top">Landfill Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Plastic waste which is managed but sent to landfill as opposed to recycled or incinerated."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="landfill-radio-overview-top" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-top" value="landfill" ></div>
</div>
<div class="card ghg-card post-intro feature-flag-ghg" goal="ghg">
<div class="title"><label for="ghg-radio-overview-top">Gross GHG</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Estimate of greenhouse gas emissions as CO2 equivalent associated with plastics activity."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="ghg-radio-overview-top" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-top" value="ghg" ></div>
</div>
<div class="card recycling-card post-intro feature-flag-recycling" goal="recycling">
<div class="title"><label for="recycling-radio-overview-top">Recycling</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Plastic waste which is collected for recycling. This is before any kind of yield loss calculation for how much recycing is actually re-used."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="recycling-radio-overview-top" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-top" value="recycling" ></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<div class="middle">
<section class="scenarios overview-section post-intro" id="scenarios">
<div id="overview-anchor-scenarios">
<h3>Policies</h3>
<div class="menu"></div>
<div class="cta" id="overview-anchor-file">
<div class="action">
<a href="#add-policy" id="add-policy-link" class="btn sec" role="button">Add</a>
<a href="#save" class="save-link btn sec" role="button">Save</a>
<a href="#load" class="load-link btn sec" role="button">Load</a>
<a href="#share" class="share-link btn sec" role="button">Share</a>
<a href="#reset" class="reset-link btn sec" role="button">Reset</a>
</div>
<div class="action">
<a href="#detailed" class="detailed-cta btn sec" role="button">Customize Details</a>
<a href="#export" class="download-link btn sec" role="button">Export CSV</a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section class="overview-timeseries overview-section post-intro post-intro-early" id="overview-timeseries" tabindex="0" aria-describedby="instructions-keyboard-overview-timeseries">
<div id="overview-anchor-timeseries">
<div class="viz-option">
<h3 id="overview-timeseries-description"><span class="title">Global Metrics over Time</span> <a id="overview-timeseries-description-dynamic" href="#overview-timeseries-description"><img alt="description" role="button" src="/img/dialog.png" class="info-img"></a></h3>
<div class="instructions-keyboard" id="instructions-keyboard-overview-timeseries">
<a href="#previous" role="button" class="btn sec previous-year-button">Previous Year</a>
<a href="#next" role="button" class="btn sec next-year-button">Next Year</a>
</div>
<svg class="body" aria-describedby="overview-timeseries-description"></svg>
<div class="cta-holder"><a href="#detailed" class="detailed-cta btn sec" id="explore-details-link">Explore detailed projections</a></div>
<div class="legend">
<img src="/img/tab_1_legend.png" alt="Legend showing solid lines include interventions and dotted lines do not">
</div>
</div>
<div class="table-option"></div>
</div>
</section>
</div>
<div class="scorecard overview-section last relative-scorecard" id="relative-scorecard">
<section id="overview-anchor-deltas">
<div class="post-intro">
<h3>Impact of Policies on Global <span class="year">2049</span> Plastics Projections</h3>
</div>
<div class="cards">
<div class="card mismanaged-waste-card post-intro post-intro-early" goal="mismanagedWaste">
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="mismanaged-radio-overview-bottom" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-bottom" value="mismanaged" ></div>
<div class="title"><label for="mismanaged-radio-overview-bottom">Mismanaged Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="This is the change in the amount of mismanaged plastic waste or leakage as a result of policy selections."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
</div>
<div class="card incinerated-waste-card post-intro" goal="incineratedWaste">
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="incinerated-radio-overview-bottom" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-bottom" value="incinerated" ></div>
<div class="title"><label for="incinerated-radio-overview-bottom">Incinerated Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="This is the change in the amount of incinerated plastic waste as a result of policy selections and could go up, for example, through reduced mismanaged waste or go down, for example, due to increased recycling."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
</div>
<div class="card landfill-waste-card post-intro" goal="landfillWaste">
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="landfill-radio-overview-bottom" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-bottom" value="landfill" ></div>
<div class="title"><label for="landfill-radio-overview-bottom">Landfill Waste</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="This is the change in the amount of plastic waste sent to landfill as a result of policy selections and could go up, for example, through reduced mismanaged waste or go down, for example, due to increased recycling."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
</div>
<div class="card ghg-card post-intro feature-flag-ghg" goal="ghg">
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="ghg-radio-overview-bottom" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-bottom" value="ghg" ></div>
<div class="title"><label for="ghg-radio-overview-bottom">GHG (experimental)</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Change in greenhouse gas emissions. Experimental."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
</div>
<div class="card recycling-card post-intro feature-flag-recycling" goal="recycling">
<div class="overview-radio-holder"><input type="radio" id="recycling-radio-overview-bottom" class="overview-radio" name="overview-metric-bottom" value="recycling" ></div>
<div class="title"><label for="recycling-radio-overview-bottom">Recycling</label> <span class="info-target" tabindex="0" data-tippy-content="Change in waste which is collected for recycling (collection rate) as a result of policies."><img alt="info" role="button" src="/img/info.png" class="info-img"></span></div>
<div class="body">...</div>
<div class="footer">Million Metric Tons</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="detailed">
<div class="panel-box active" id="panel-box">
<div class="panel">
<div class="output-section">
<div id="config-container" class="config-container">
<div class="tutorial">
<p class="info">
ℹ️ Your policy selections on the overview tab and this tab are kept in sync.
</p>
<p class="tutorial-cta">🏁 Start here:</p>
<p>
Exposing additional metrics like sectorial consumption at a regional level, this tab refines your policy options from the first tab, allowing you full control to craft your own unique interventinos.
</p>
<div class="tutorial-next">
<a class="tutorial-next-button" href="#raw-scorecard">Close Message</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="detailed-anchor-controls">
<h2 class="post-intro post-intro-early interactive-h2" aria-label="Details">
<span>Details Showing</span>
<span class='sel'><select class="stage-select" id="stage-select" aria-label="Life stage dropdown">
</select></span>
<span>in</span>
<span class='sel'><select class="region-select" id="region-select" aria-label="Region dropdown">
</select></span>
<span>at</span>
<span class='sel'><select class="year-select" id="year-select" aria-label="Year dropdown">
</select></span>
<span>as</span>
<span class='sel'><select class="type-select" id="type-select" aria-label="Type dropdown">
</select></span>
<span>.</span>
</h2>
<h2 class="static-h2">Deatils View</h2>
<div class="delta-check-holder post-intro">
<label for="show-delta"><input type="checkbox" name="show-delta" id="show-delta" class="show-delta"> Show change from baseline due to interventions.</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<section class="goals-container-outer overflowing-enabled" data-simplebar-auto-hide="false">
<div id="gloals-container" class="goals-container post-intro">
<div class="goal-container inner top even" id="mismanaged-waste-goal-container">
<h3>Mismanaged Waste</h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
</div>
<div class="goal-container inner top odd" id="incinerated-waste-goal-container">
<h3>Incinerated Waste</h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
</div>
<div class="goal-container inner even" id="landfill-waste-goal-container">
<h3>Landfill Waste</h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
</div>
<div class="goal-container odd feature-flag-ghg" id="ghg-goal-container">
<h3>GHG (Experimental)</h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
</div>
<div class="goal-container odd feature-flag-recycling" id="recycling-goal-container">
<h3>Recycling</h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="region-container" class="region-container post-intro post-intro-early">
<div id="current-year-container" class="current-year-container overflowing-enabled" data-simplebar-auto-hide="false">
<div id="eol-container" class="stage-container">
<div id="detailed-anchor-waste-summary">
<div class="subtitle"></div>
<h3><span class="description">EOL</span></h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
<div class="check-holder">
<label for="eol-radio"><input type="radio" class="stage-radio" id="eol-radio" value="eol" name="detailed-metric-side"> Show EOL</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="production-container" class="stage-container">
<div id="detailed-anchor-production-summary">
<div class="subtitle"></div>
<h3><span class="description">Start of Life</span></h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
<div class="check-holder">
<label for="production-radio"><input type="radio" class="stage-radio" id="production-radio" value="production" name="detailed-metric-side"> Show SOL</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="consumption-container" class="stage-container">
<div id="detailed-anchor-consumption-summary">
<div class="subtitle"></div>
<h3><span class="description">Consumption</span></h3>
<div class="bars"></div>
<div class="check-holder">
<label for="consumption-radio"><input type="radio" class="stage-radio" id="consumption-radio" value="consumption" name="detailed-metric-side"> Show Consumption</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="timeseries-container" class="timeseries-container post-intro post-intro-early overflowing-enabled" data-simplebar-auto-hide="false" tabindex="0" aria-describedby="instructions-keyboard-timeseries">
<div id="detailed-anchor-timeseries">
<h3 id="detailed-timeseries-description"><span class="title">Timeseries</span> <a id="detailed-timeseries-description-dynamic" href="#detailed-timeseries-description"><img alt="description" role="button" src="/img/dialog.png" class="info-img"></a></h3>
<div class="slope-check-holder">
<label for="history-check"><input type="checkbox" id="history-check" class="history-check">Historical</label>
</div>
<div class="viz-option">
<div class="instructions-keyboard" id="instructions-keyboard-timeseries">
<a href="#previous" role="button" class="btn sec previous-year-button">Previous Year</a>
<a href="#next" role="button" class="btn sec next-year-button">Next Year</a>
</div>
<div>
<svg class="timeseries" id="timeseries" aria-describedby="detailed-timeseries-description"></svg>
</div>
<div class="sparklines-section" id="sparklines-section">
</div>
<div class="legend">
<img src="/img/tab_2_legend.png" alt="Legend showing solid lines include interventions and dotted lines do not">
</div>
</div>
<div class="table-option"></div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="bubblegraph-container" class="bubblegraph-container post-intro overflowing-enabled" data-simplebar-auto-hide="false" tabindex="0">
<div id="detailed-anchor-cross-region">
<h3 id="detailed-bubble-description" class="big"><span class="title"></span> <a id="detailed-bubble-description-dynamic" href="#detailed-bubble-description"><img alt="description" role="button" src="/img/dialog.png" class="info-img"></a></h3>
<div class="viz-option">
<div class="instructions-keyboard">
<a href="#china" role="button" class="btn sec china-button">Select China</a>
<a href="#eu30" role="button" class="btn sec eu30-button">Select EU 30</a>
<a href="#nafta" role="button" class="btn sec nafta-button">Select NA</a>
<a href="#global" role="button" class="btn sec row-button">Select Majority World</a>
<a href="#global" role="button" class="btn sec global-button">Select Global</a>
</div>
<div class="slope-check-holder">
<label for="slope-check"><input type="checkbox" id="slope-check" class="slope-check">Sort</label>
</div>
<svg id="bubblegraph" class="bubblegraph" id="bubblegraph" aria-describedby="detailed-bubble-description"></svg>
</div>
<div class="table-option"></div>
</div>
</section>
</div>
</div>
<div class="panel">
<section id="buttons-panel" class="right-panel post-intro">
<div id="detailed-anchor-policy-file">
<h2>Policy Scenario</h2>
<div class="link-holder">
<a href="#download" class="download-link btn" role="button">Download Projections</a>
</div>
<div class="link-holder">
<a href="#save" class="save-link btn sec" role="button">Save</a>
<a href="#load" class="load-link btn sec" role="button">Load</a>
<a href="#share" class="share-link btn sec" role="button">Share</a>
<a href="#reset" class="reset-link btn sec" role="button">Reset</a>
</div>
<div class="link-holder">
<a href="#overview" id="overview-cta" class="btn sec" role="button" role="button">Return to overview</a>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="levers-panel" class="right-panel post-intro">
<div id="detailed-anchor-policy-customization">
<div id="levers-panel-inner"></div>
<div class="lever-section" id="prototype">
<details id="lever-section-prototype">
<summary class="lever-section-title">Prototype</summary>
<p class="section-levers">
<div class="slider-holder" id="slider-holder-prototype">
<div id="prototype-intro"><span class="error-indicator">⚠️</span><label for="input-prototype"><span id="title-{{variable}}">Value of in.prototype</span>: <span class="delta-display" id="display-prototype"></span></label></div>
<input type="number" value="0" class="slider" id="input-prototype">
<table class="goals-table">
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><span class="goal-table-year"></span> Production Emissions</td>
<td><span class="goal-table-year"></span> Consumption Emissions</td>
<td><span class="goal-table-year"></span> Landfill Waste</td>
<td><span class="goal-table-year"></span> Recycling</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="global-table-region"></td>
<td class="goal-table-mismanaged-waste"></td>
<td class="goal-table-incinerated-waste"></td>
<td class="goal-table-landfill-waste"></td>
<td class="goal-table-recycling"></td>
</tr>
</table>
<div class="status-display"></div>
<div class="editor" id="editor-prototype">var test = in.prototype + 10;</div>
<div class="inspects-area"></div>
</div>
</p>
</details>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="simulation" class="about">
<div class="about-panel">
<h2>Simulation</h2>
<p>This tab allows you to configure run Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate projections for parameter uncertainty or sensitivity analysis. Note that this will build upon any changes you have made elsewhere in the tool on other tabs.</p>
<div class="editor-panel">
<div>
<select data-tippy-content="The year for which the simulations should run. This will re-simulate this year multiple times with noise introduced through the script provided in the simulation tab." class="sim-year-select" id="sim-year-select" aria-label="Year dropdown"></select>
</div>
<div class="status-display"></div>
<div class="editor" id="editor-simulation"></div>
<div class="inspects-area"></div>
<div class="error-indicator">⚠️ Error in code</div>
<div class="sim-actions">
<a href="#sim-single" data-tippy-content="Execute 1000 simulations using the provided script and examine individual output variables. This builds upon other policy selections currently active in the tool." id="run-standalone" class="btn tippy-btn" role="button">Run Simulations</a>
<a href="#sim-multiple" data-tippy-content="Try different simulations on top of the current policy selection in the tool which is assumed to be a baseline. This option will add select policies on top of that baseline to compare distributional outputs if those different policy options are enabled either individually or together." id="run-policies" class="btn tippy-btn" role="button">Sweep Policies</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sim-progress-panel">
<div>Completed <span class="complete-sim-count">0</span> of <span class="total-sim-count">0</span> simulations.</div>
<div>
<progress class="sim-progress-bar" max="100" value="0">0%</progress>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sim-standalone-results-panel">
<div>
<a href="#export-standalone" id="export-standalone" class="btn" role="button">Download Results</a>
<a href="#sim-multiple" id="finish-standalone" class="btn" role="button">Run New Simulation</a>
</div>
<div class="standalone-dim-selector-holder">
<select class="standalone-dim-selector" id="standalone-dim-selector" aria-label="Dimension to visualize from the simulations.">
<option value="landfillWaste">Global Landfill Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="mismanagedWaste" selected>Global Mismanaged Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="incineratedWaste">Global Incinerated Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="recycling">Global Recycled Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="totalConsumption">Global Total Consumption (Mt)</option>
<option value="ghg">Global Gross GHG (CO2e Mt)</option>
<option value="primaryProduction">Primary Production (Mt)</option>
<option value="secondaryProduction">Secondary Production (Mt)</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="standalone-canvas-holder">
<div class="standalone-canvas-holder-inner">
<canvas id="standalone-canvas" class="standalone-canvas"></canvas>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sim-policies-results-panel">
<div>
<a href="#export-policies" id="export-policies" class="btn" role="button">Download Results</a>
<a href="#sim-multiple" id="finish-policies" class="btn" role="button">Run New Simulation</a>
</div>
<div class="policies-dim-selector-holder">
<select class="policies-dim-selector" id="policies-dim-selector" aria-label="Dimension to visualize from the simulations.">
<option value="landfillWaste">Global Landfill Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="mismanagedWaste" selected>Global Mismanaged Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="incineratedWaste">Global Incinerated Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="recycling">Global Recycled Waste (Mt)</option>
<option value="totalConsumption">Global Total Consumption (Mt)</option>
<option value="ghg">Global Gross GHG (CO2e Mt)</option>
<option value="primaryProduction">Primary Production (Mt)</option>
<option value="secondaryProduction">Secondary Production (Mt)</option>
</select>
<select class="policies-interval-selector" id="policies-interval-selector" aria-label="Size of confidnece interval to visualize.">
<option value="1">68% Confidence Interval (+/- 1 Std)</option>,
<option value="2" selected>95% Confidence Interval (+/- 2 Std)</option>
</select>
</div>
<div class="policies-canvas-holder">
<div class="policies-canvas-holder-inner">
<canvas id="policies-canvas" class="policies-canvas"></canvas>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="settings" class="about">
<div class="about-panel">
<h2>Settings</h2>
<p>This tab allows you to configure the behavior of the application. These choices are independent of both your policy selections and changes to financial and system assumptions. It intends to support ergenomic use of the application per user preference and, as appropriate, use of adaptive technology. Note that changes to these settings will be saved to a small text file on your machine called a cookie. If you return to the application later and the file is still present, you will be given the option to restore your settings a few seconds after the application finishes loading.</p>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Layout</h3>
<p>
Some views like the details tab may show a policy panel next to visualization describing that policy. Some users may prefer a linear view where the visualization takes up the whole window width.
</p>
<p>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="side-by-side-radio" name="layout" value="side" class="layout-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="side-by-side-radio">Side by side layout</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="linear-radio" name="layout" value="linear" class="layout-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="linear-radio">Linear layout</label>
</div>
</p>
</div>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Colors</h3>
<p>
By default, the color scheme emphasizes color differences between series (example: to better differentiate end of life fates by color). This may benefit some color blind and low vision users. However, you may prefer a high contrast color scheme which empahsizes difference from colors to the background, helping other low vision users.
</p>
<p>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="colorblind-radio" name="color-radio" value="colorblind" class="color-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="colorblind-radio">Prefer color-blind scheme</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="high-contrast-radio" name="color-radio" value="high-contrast" class="color-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="high-contrast-radio">Prefer high-contrast scheme</label>
</div>
</p>
</div>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Headers</h3>
<p>
The headers allow for interactivity, manipulating the entire visulization from a single component which also describes the current page's contents. This may help some low motor users or those where navigating elements may take extra time. Some adaptive technologies will read these interactive headers as intended while others provide overly long names. Users may instead select a shorter "static" option which removes the header interactive elements.
</p>
<p>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="interactive-header-radio" name="header-radio" value="interactive-header" class="header-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="interactive-header-radio">Interactive headers</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="static-header-radio" name="header-radio" value="static-header" class="header-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="static-header-radio">Static headers</label>
</div>
</p>
</div>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Visualizations</h3>
<p>
For major charts, users can instead request a table instead of a graphical visualization. Note that all data may be exported as well.
</p>
<div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="show-viz-radio" name="viz-table-radio" value="show-viz" class="viz-table-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="show-viz-radio">Prefer visualizations</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="show-table-radio" name="viz-table-radio" value="show-table" class="viz-table-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="show-table-radio">Prefer tables</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Code Editors</h3>
<p>
Navigating to details about a policy will let users change the code describing the logic for that intervention. This embedded editor environment can be exited by pressing esc. However, some users not wishing to edit the code may prefer to disable these components for a more streamlined experience.
</p>
<div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="show-editor-radio" name="toggle-editor-radio" value="show-editor" class="toggle-editor-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="show-editor-radio">Enable code editors</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="hide-editor-radio" name="toggle-editor-radio" value="hide-editor" class="toggle-editor-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="hide-editor-radio">Disable code editors</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="settings-section">
<h3>Scrolling</h3>
<p>
Controlling what subset of available visualizations are visibile on the details tab, the tool offers "advanced scrolling" which may cause scrollable areas inside other scrollable areas. However, some users including those with motor impairments, may prefer to only have more simplified scrolling with a single scrollable area.
</p>
<div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="allow-scroll-radio" name="toggle-scroll-radio" value="allow-scroll" class="toggle-scroll-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off" checked><label for="allow-scroll-radio">Prefer advanced scrolling</label>
</div>
<div>
<input type="radio" id="disable-scroll-radio" name="toggle-scroll-radio" value="disable-scroll" class="toggle-scroll-radio access-radio" autocomplete="off"><label for="disable-scroll-radio">Prefer simple scrolling</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="downloads" class="about">
<div class="about-panel">
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h2>Downloads</h2>
There are some download artifacts are avilable under the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/blob/main/LICENSE.md#data" target="_blank">CC-BY-NC 4.0 License</a>. Note that, for historic compatibility reasons, some exports may have slightly different region labels. In this case, ROW refers to majority world (originally Rest of World) and NAFTA refers to North America.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section" id="downloads-snapshot">
<h3>Standardized Outputs</h3>
A multi-file snapshot of <a href="/data/standardized.zip" target="_blank">standardized outputs</a> is available using <a href="https://digital-preservation.github.io/csv-schema/" target="_blank">CSV Schema Lanugage</a> to describe point estimates for select scenarios, Monte Carlo outputs for select scenarios, and detailed Monte Carlo outputs for business as usual (no interventions).
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section" id="downloads-bau">
<h3>Business as Usual</h3>
The <a href="/data/overview_ml.csv" target="_blank">Business as Usual CSV File</a> describes longitudinal projections if no policy intervention is used. This is the same as looking at the results while leaving all of the policy levers in their default values and leaving the overview checkboxes unchecked.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section" id="downloads-summaries">
<h3>Policy Summaries</h3>
The <a href="/standalone_tasks/scenarios_overview.csv" target="_blank">Policy Scenarios CSV File</a> describes the 2050 outcomes (unless another year is specified) for the following common policy selections where a single policy is included in the simulation at a time:
<ul>
<li>banPsPackaging: The result of having banned polystyrene packaging.</li>
<li>banSingleUse: The result of having reduced single use packaging by 90%.</li>
<li>capVirgin: The result of having capped virgin plastic production to 2020 business as ususal levels.</li>
<li>minimumRecycledContent: The result of a 30% minimum recycled content mandate for new products.</li>
<li>minimumRecyclingRate: The result of a 30% minimum recycling collection rate mandate.</li>
<li>recyclingInvestment: The result of 100B USD investment in recycling collection and infrastructure.</li>
<li>reducedAdditives: The result of 60% reduction in additives.</li>
<li>taxVirigin: The result of a low consumption tax (see tool for more details).</li>
<li>wasteInvestment: The result of 50B USD investment in non-recycling waste management including incineration and landfill.</li>
</ul>
Furthermore, this CSV includes the following which describe complex multi-intervention scenarios:
<ul>
<li>lowAmbition: 30% reduction in single use packaging, 30% reduction in additives, 20% minimum recycling rate mandate, 20% minimum recycled content mandate, 10 billion USD investment in plastic recycling, and 25 billion USD investment in waste infrastructure.</li>
<li>highAmbition: All interventions or "checkboxes" on the <a href="#overview">overview</a> tab at full strength.</li>
</ul>
Finally, this CSV also provides these benchmarks for reference:
<ul>
<li>businessAsUsual: 2050 results without any policy intervention.</li>
<li>businessAsUsual2024: 2024 results without any policy intervention.</li>
</ul>
Keep in mind that policy outcomes cannot be added together because some policies may overlap with each other like for mimnum recycled content and minimum recycling (collection) rate. Therefore, to combine policies, users need to either leverage this web application or use the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/tree/main/js_standalone" target="_blank">stand alone engine</a>.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section" id="downloads-pieeline">
<h3>Pipeline Detailed Outputs</h3>
The output of the machine learning pipeline including a comprehensive SQLite database can be found in the <a href="/datapipeline.zip">Data Pipeline Zip File</a>.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section" id="downloads-standalone">
<h3>Stand-Alone Engine</h3>
Additional JSON files are also available for download and this tool's simulation can be run outside the browser from the command line. See the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/tree/main/js_standalone" target="_blank">stand alone execution README</a> for more details.
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="guide" class="about">
<div class="about-panel">
<ul data-sub-tabs-guide>
<li><a data-tabby-default href="#guide-intro">Introduction</a></li>
<li><a href="#guide-consumption">Consumption</a></li>
<li><a href="#guide-waste">Waste</a></li>
<li><a href="#guide-policy">Policy</a></li>
<li><a href="#guide-resources">Resources</a></li>
</ul>
<div id="guide-intro">
<h2>Guide Introduction</h2>
This guide provides some high level observations from the data as material to complement the tool and serves as a continuation of our <a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">interactive introduction</a>. Each section provides a different perspective into these results. The sections:
<ul>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-introduction">Introduction</a>: This section.</li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-consumption">Consumption</a>: Consumption projections under business as usual.</li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-waste">Waste</a>: Waste projections under business as usual.</li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-policy">Policy</a>: Overview of different common policy options.</li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-policy">Resources</a>: Links to resources for further reading.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="guide-consumption">
<h2>Consumption</h2>
Annual global plastic production in business as usual is set to increase more than $totalConsumptionChange percent from today to 2050 ($totalConsumption2024 million metrics tons in 2024 to $totalConsumption2050 Mt) in the business as usual scenario.
<div class="image-box">
<a href="/img/consumption.png?v=$epoch" target="_blank"><img src="/img/consumption.png?v=$epoch" alt="Timeseries visualization showing plastic consumption increasing over time and in most regions."></a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="guide-waste">
<h2>Waste</h2>
About $mismanaged2024 million metric tons of mismanaged waste is generated per year (2024). That is expected to rise about $mismanagedChange percent in 2050 ($mismanaged2050 Mt). This business as usual scenario sees the greatest mismanaged burden in "majority world" countries. Specifically, RoW's mismanaged waste is $mismanagedRowRatio times greater than NAFTA, EU 30, and China combined in 2050. Indeed, it accounts for about $mismanagedRowPercent percent of global mismanaged waste in that projection.
<div class="image-box">
<a href="/img/waste.png?v=$epoch" target="_blank"><img src="/img/waste.png?v=$epoch" alt="Timeseries visualization showing plastic waste increasing over time and in most regions."></a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="guide-policy">
<h2>Policy</h2>
These numbers could change under different policy scenarios. Five of the options that seem to have a large impact on mismanaged volume:
<ul>
<li>
A Minimum Recycling Content mandate at 40 percent would change annual mismanaged waste by about $mrcPercent perecent in 2050 ($mismanaged2050Mrc Mt vs $mismanaged2050 Mt without any intervention).
</li>
<li>
If capping plastic production to 2020 levels, this simulation expects a change in annual mismanaged waste of $prodCapPercent percent in 2050 ($mismanaged2050 BAU Mt in 2050 to $mismanaged2050ProdCap Mt).
</li>
<li>
A 90 percent reduction on other single-use packaging beyond polystyrene would change mismanaged waste by $deltaSingleUse Mt globally, by 2050.
</li>
<li>
With this in mind, a <a href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/consumption_tax.pdf" target="_blank">consumer tax on packaging</a> would change mismanaged waste by $deltaTaxVirgin Mt globally, by 2050.
</li>
<li>
Taxes could fund investment. A 100 billion investment in recycling would increase recycling by $investRecyclePercent percent ($investRecycle vs BAU $bauRecycle Mt) and change mismanaged waste ($investRecycleMismanaged with investment vs $mismanaged2050 Mt) by $investRecyclePercentMismanaged percent.Meanwhile, 100 billion for waste infrastructure changes mismanaged waste by $investWastePercentMismanaged percent ($investWasteMismanaged with investment vs $mismanaged2050 Mt).
</li>
</ul>
In addition to these policies which have a large volume impact, consider the following which may also be important in other ways:
<ul>
<li>
A ban on Polystyrene Packaging would only change mismanaged waste by $deltaPS Mt but addresses a type of often mismanaged polymer found frequently occurring in ocean plastics mass.
</li>
<li>
There are some concerns about additives even if their volume is not large. Removing 90 percent of additives would change mismanaged waste by $deltaAdditives Mt but these still may be important materials to remove.
</li>
<li>
Though banning it changes mismanaged waste only by $deltaBanWasteTrade Mt (in part since some nations have already started reducing waste imports), a policy to ban waste trade may still serve equity goals.
</li>
</ul>
<p>
With this background in mind, this tool allows users to explore these policies in various scenarios like the following:
</p>
<ul>
<li>
Without intervention, the $towerBauMass Mt global mismanaged waste produced between 2011 and 2050 would tower roughly $towerBauMiles miles into the sky ($towerBauKm km) if placed over Manhattan in New York City (using plastic bottles to represent that waste). In 2050 alone, $towerBauMassAnnual Mt would be produced, reaching $towerBauMilesAnnual miles into the sky ($towerBauKmAnnual km).
</li>
<li>
With a <a href="/?chinaIncinerationCost=150&chinaIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&chinaLandfillCost=170&chinaLandfillPlasticPercent=12&chinaPercentAdditives=6&chinaPercentPS=1.3&chinaPercentSingleUse=48&chinaRecyclingCost=815&chinaTaxMultiplier=0.09&chinaTaxPower=1.14&consumptionAgricultureLifecycle=2&consumptionConstructionLifecycle=35&consumptionElectronicLifecycle=8&consumptionHouseholdLeisureSportsLifecycle=3&consumptionOtherLifecycle=5&consumptionPackagingLifecycle=0.5&consumptionTextileLifecycle=5&consumptionTransportationLifecycle=13&endYearGradual=2040&endYearImmediate=2030&eu30IncinerationCost=290&eu30IncinerationPlasticPercent=11.5&eu30LandfillCost=80&eu30LandfillPlasticPercent=11.5&eu30PercentAdditives=8&eu30PercentPS=2.2&eu30PercentSingleUse=31&eu30RecyclingCost=1105&eu30TaxMultiplier=0.56&eu30TaxPower=0.12&naftaIncinerationCost=220&naftaIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&naftaLandfillCost=190&naftaLandfillPlasticPercent=12&naftaPercentAdditives=8&naftaPercentPS=1.7&naftaPercentSingleUse=46&naftaRecyclingCost=960&naftaTaxMultiplier=0.12&naftaTaxPower=0.83&recyclingContentLostConsumption=0&recyclingDelay=1&recyclingDisplacementRate=50&recyclingLostBackfillRate=50&rowIncinerationCost=100&rowIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&rowLandfillCost=220&rowLandfillPlasticPercent=12&rowPercentAdditives=7&rowPercentPS=1.7&rowPercentSingleUse=48&rowRecyclingCost=530&rowTaxMultiplier=0.12&rowTaxPower=0.83&startYear=2025&chinaAdditivesPercentReduction=30&eu30AdditivesPercentReduction=30&naftaAdditivesPercentReduction=30&rowAdditivesPercentReduction=30&chinaYieldLoss=20&eu30YieldLoss=20&naftaYieldLoss=20&rowYieldLoss=20&chinaPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=30&chinaPercentReducePs=0&eu30PercentReduceProblematicPackaging=30&eu30PercentReducePs=0&naftaPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=30&naftaPercentReducePs=0&rowPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=30&rowPercentReducePs=0&chinaVirginPlasticCap=300&eu30VirginPlasticCap=300&naftaVirginPlasticCap=300&rowVirginPlasticCap=300&chinaPackagingTax=0&eu30PackagingTax=0&naftaPackagingTax=0&rowPackagingTax=0&chinaLandfillInvestment=0.5&eu30LandfillInvestment=0.5&naftaLandfillInvestment=0.5&rowLandfillInvestment=11&chinaIncinerationInvestment=0.5&eu30IncinerationInvestment=0.5&naftaIncinerationInvestment=0.5&rowIncinerationInvestment=11&chinaRecyclingInvestment=2.5&eu30RecyclingInvestment=2.5&naftaRecyclingInvestment=2.5&rowRecyclingInvestment=2.5&chinaMaximumMismanagedRate=100&eu30MaximumMismanagedRate=100&naftaMaximumMismanagedRate=100&rowMaximumMismanagedRate=100&chinaMinimumRecyclingRate=20&eu30MinimumRecyclingRate=20&naftaMinimumRecyclingRate=20&rowMinimumRecyclingRate=20&chinaMinimumRecycledContent=20&eu30MinimumRecycledContent=20&naftaMinimumRecycledContent=20&rowMinimumRecycledContent=20&chinaWasteTradeReduction=0&eu30WasteTradeReduction=0&naftaWasteTradeReduction=0&rowWasteTradeReduction=0&chinaDeltaWasteExport=0&eu30DeltaWasteExport=0&naftaDeltaWasteExport=0&prototype=0&rowDeltaWasteExport=0&chinaDeltaWasteImport=0&eu30DeltaWasteImport=0&naftaDeltaWasteImport=0&rowDeltaWasteImport=0&chinaMinReusePackaging=0&eu30MinReusePackaging=0&naftaMinReusePackaging=0&rowMinReusePackaging=0&chinaMinReuseAll=0&eu30MinReuseAll=0&naftaMinReuseAll=0&rowMinReuseAll=0" target="_blank">low ambition treaty</a>, this tower decreases to $towerInterventionLowMass Mt and would reach $towerInterventionLowMiles miles into the sky ($towerInterventionLowKm km) if placed over Manhattan in New York City (using plastic bottles to represent that waste). In 2050 alone, $towerInterventionLowMassAnnual Mt would be produced, reaching $towerInterventionLowMilesAnnual miles into the sky ($towerInterventionLowKmAnnual km).
</li>
<li>
With a <a href="/?chinaIncinerationCost=150&chinaIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&chinaLandfillCost=170&chinaLandfillPlasticPercent=12&chinaPercentAdditives=3&chinaPercentPS=1.3&chinaPercentSingleUse=48&chinaRecyclingCost=815&chinaTaxMultiplier=0.09&chinaTaxPower=1.14&consumptionAgricultureLifecycle=2&consumptionConstructionLifecycle=35&consumptionElectronicLifecycle=8&consumptionHouseholdLeisureSportsLifecycle=3&consumptionOtherLifecycle=5&consumptionPackagingLifecycle=0.5&consumptionTextileLifecycle=5&consumptionTransportationLifecycle=13&endYearGradual=2040&endYearImmediate=2030&eu30IncinerationCost=290&eu30IncinerationPlasticPercent=11.5&eu30LandfillCost=80&eu30LandfillPlasticPercent=11.5&eu30PercentAdditives=7&eu30PercentPS=2.2&eu30PercentSingleUse=31&eu30RecyclingCost=1105&eu30TaxMultiplier=0.56&eu30TaxPower=0.12&naftaIncinerationCost=220&naftaIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&naftaLandfillCost=190&naftaLandfillPlasticPercent=12&naftaPercentAdditives=8&naftaPercentPS=1.7&naftaPercentSingleUse=46&naftaRecyclingCost=960&naftaTaxMultiplier=0.12&naftaTaxPower=0.83&recyclingContentLostConsumption=0&recyclingDelay=1&recyclingDisplacementRate=50&recyclingLostBackfillRate=50&rowIncinerationCost=100&rowIncinerationPlasticPercent=12&rowLandfillCost=220&rowLandfillPlasticPercent=12&rowPercentAdditives=8&rowPercentPS=1.7&rowPercentSingleUse=48&rowRecyclingCost=530&rowTaxMultiplier=0.12&rowTaxPower=0.83&startYear=2025&chinaAdditivesPercentReduction=90&eu30AdditivesPercentReduction=90&naftaAdditivesPercentReduction=90&rowAdditivesPercentReduction=90&chinaYieldLoss=20&eu30YieldLoss=20&naftaYieldLoss=20&rowYieldLoss=20&chinaPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=90&chinaPercentReducePs=100&eu30PercentReduceProblematicPackaging=90&eu30PercentReducePs=100&naftaPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=90&naftaPercentReducePs=100&rowPercentReduceProblematicPackaging=90&rowPercentReducePs=100&chinaVirginPlasticCap=145&eu30VirginPlasticCap=55&naftaVirginPlasticCap=90&rowVirginPlasticCap=140&chinaPackagingTax=6&eu30PackagingTax=44&naftaPackagingTax=10&rowPackagingTax=4&chinaLandfillInvestment=2&eu30LandfillInvestment=2&naftaLandfillInvestment=2&rowLandfillInvestment=44&chinaIncinerationInvestment=2&eu30IncinerationInvestment=2&naftaIncinerationInvestment=2&rowIncinerationInvestment=44&chinaRecyclingInvestment=25&eu30RecyclingInvestment=25&naftaRecyclingInvestment=25&rowRecyclingInvestment=25&chinaMaximumMismanagedRate=100&eu30MaximumMismanagedRate=100&naftaMaximumMismanagedRate=100&rowMaximumMismanagedRate=100&chinaMinimumRecyclingRate=40&eu30MinimumRecyclingRate=40&naftaMinimumRecyclingRate=40&rowMinimumRecyclingRate=40&chinaMinimumRecycledContent=40&eu30MinimumRecycledContent=40&naftaMinimumRecycledContent=40&rowMinimumRecycledContent=40&chinaWasteTradeReduction=100&eu30WasteTradeReduction=100&naftaWasteTradeReduction=100&rowWasteTradeReduction=100&chinaDeltaWasteExport=0&eu30DeltaWasteExport=0&naftaDeltaWasteExport=0&prototype=0&rowDeltaWasteExport=0&chinaDeltaWasteImport=0&eu30DeltaWasteImport=0&naftaDeltaWasteImport=0&rowDeltaWasteImport=0&chinaMinReusePackaging=40&eu30MinReusePackaging=40&naftaMinReusePackaging=40&rowMinReusePackaging=40&chinaMinReuseAll=0&eu30MinReuseAll=0&naftaMinReuseAll=0&rowMinReuseAll=0" target="_blank">high ambition treaty</a> using all of these policies, this tower decreases to $towerInterventionMass Mt and would reach $towerInterventionMiles miles into the sky ($towerInterventionKm km) if placed over Manhattan in New York City (using plastic bottles to represent that waste). In 2050 alone, $towerInterventionMassAnnual Mt would be produced, reaching $towerInterventionMilesAnnual miles into the sky ($towerInterventionKmAnnual km).
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Note about recycling: in addition to a Minimum Recycling Content (MRC) mandate, one may also consider a Minimum Recycling Rate (MRR). A 30 percent MRR changes annual mismanaged waste by $mrrPercent in 2050 ($mismanaged2050Mrr Mt). In contrast, recall that a MRC at 30 percent would change annual mismanaged waste by about $mrcPercent perecent in 2050 ($mismanaged2050Mrc Mt vs $mismanaged2050 Mt without any intervention). All that said, these two policies could complement each other and be implemented together. Note MRC dictates how much of new plastic products must come from recycled materials. Meanwhile, MRR dictates how much of plastic waste must be collected for recycling regardless of if those materials are used.
</p>
</div>
<div id="guide-resources">
<h2>Resources</h2>
To understand these trends, consider reviewing other resources on variables that may be related to plastics behavior:
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/" target="_blank">United Nations World Population Prospects</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm">OECD GDP Long Term Forecast</a>
</li>
</ul>
These variables are considered in the machine learning model used to build this tool's projections.
<div class="image-box">
<a href="/img/line.png?v=$epoch" target="_blank"><img src="/img/line.png?v=$epoch" alt="Timeseries visualization showing total consumption, per-capita consumption, and consumption divided by GDP."></a>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="about" class="about">
<div class="about-panel">
<ul data-sub-tabs-about>
<li><a data-tabby-default href="#about-overview">Introduction</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-model">Model</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-contact">Contact</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-privacy">Privacy</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-license">License</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-people">People / Funding</a></li>
<li><a href="#about-publication">Publication</a></li>
</ul>
<div id="about-overview">
<h2>About</h2>
This project allows users to explore different plastics outcomes under various policy scenarios, offering the ability to craft highly customized policy packages and to build new policy interventions through an embedded programming environment. This tool is both a continuation of our <a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">interactive introduction</a> and is a deployment of <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype">open source code</a> built as a joint project of:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://bosl.ucsb.edu/">Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory</a> at University of California Santa Barbara</li>
<li><a href="https://dse.berkeley.edu/">Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment</a> at University of California Berkeley</li>
</ul>
Open source on GitHub at <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype">SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype</a>.
</div>
<div id="about-model">
<h2>Model Information</h2>
Note that the current model should be treated as "in pre-print" and, in addition to expanded documentation / discussion, predictions may evolve as this project goes into publication. That said, this effort uses a mixture of techniques to accomplish both projection of business as usual as well as simulate different policy interventions. For more details, see the <a href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/ml.pdf">technical model write up</a>.
<ul>
<li>Consumption is modeled through random forest and uses historic data as well as GDP per-capita (USD 2010 PPP) and population projections.</li>
<li>Waste is modeled through random forest and uses historic data as well as GDP per-capita (USD 2010 PPP) and population projections.</li>
<li>Goods / materials trade is modeled through random forest and uses historic data as well as GDP per-capita (USD 2010 PPP) and population projections.</li>
<li>Waste trade is modeled through random forest and uses historic data as well as GDP per-capita (USD 2010 PPP), population projections, and a flag indicating before / after implementation of China's National Sword.</li>
<li>Interventions are mechanistic as described in their <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-interventions-doc">intervention supporting documentation</a>.</li>
</ul>
Focusing on the machine learning, performance evaluation is <a href="/#downloads" target="_blank">reported in detail across the entire sweep of models</a> beyond the random forest option. However, focusing on the hidden test set performance for the model configurations in production as mean absolute error:
<ul>
<li>Consumption sees a test MAE of $consumptionInSampleError Mt. It should be mentioned that there are a relatively large number of classes of consumption.</li>
<li>Waste sees a test MAE of $wasteInSampleError Mt. This tool highlights that there are only 4 classes of fates.</li>
<li>Goods trade sees a test MAE of $goodsTradeInSampleError Mt. This project notes an important degree of change in this metric over time in the historic dataset.</li>
<li>Waste trade sees a test MAE of $wasteTradeInSampleError Mt. It is worth mentioning that this metric has had major shifts due to policy like China's National Sword.</li>
</ul>
Of course, these measures report on instances randomly selected to go into a hidden test set. These "in-sample" errors may under-estimate what one would see in practice when making temporally displaced "out of sample" predictions in future years. Therefore the model pipeline also runs an experiment in which it hides 2019 and 2020 from the training before using 2019 as validation. This in mind, we observe the following out of sample MAEs for the production model configuration:
<ul>
<li>Consumption sees an out of sample MAE of $consumptionOutSampleError Mt.</li>
<li>Waste sees an out of sample MAE of $wasteOutSampleError Mt.</li>
<li>Goods trade sees an out of sample MAE of $goodsTradeOutSampleError Mt.</li>
<li>Waste trade sees an out of sample MAE of $wasteTradeOutSampleError Mt.</li>
</ul>
Additionally, for a limited number of features, models sectorize trade masses as ratios to overall net trade with the following performance where the difference in available input data may explain task performance:
<ul>
<li>Hidden test set MAE: $tradeSectorInSampleError</li>
<li>Out of sample test MAE: $tradeSectorOutSampleError</li>
</ul>
Finally, the modeling team further monitors various segments of the dataset to ensure adequate performance for all sectors, regions, fates, train / test / validation splits, etc. In addition to offering an opportunity for domain experts to evaluate model results, this activity can also provide segment error estimations. One such method of monitoring is to retrain the selected random forest configuration with many different train / validation sets to determine the range of expected performance with some differences anticipated due to chance. All this in mind, consider the following region-level performance given that dimension's particularly notable importance to equity:
<ul>
<li>Consumption: As the actual response vaiable in the model is change in consumption, results are reported as MAE in delta Mt. That said, this MAE stays under an acceptable 2.5 Mt for all regions in the trials though EU 30 and NAFTA tend to stay under 1 Mt whereas China and majority world may be around 1.5 Mt in practice.</li>
<li>Waste: As the actual response variable in the model is percent of waste, results are reported as MAE in percentage points. These stay under an acceptable 3% in all trials though China and EU 30 are seen going above 1% while RoW and NAFTA tend to stay below 1% Mt.</li>
<li>Goods trade: As the actual response vaiable in the model is percent traded, results are reported as MAE in percentage points. These stay under an acceptable 4% (note this is larger than some other trade numbers) in all cases with only China being notable with MAE over 2% </li>
<li>Waste trade: As the actual response variable in the model is precent traded, results are reported as MAE in percentage points. These stay under an acceptable 3% without any region having a notably divergent distribution of MAEs.</li>
</ul>
Note that these describe a range of validation MAEs seen across 100 trials of model training with each having a randomly selected test / validation split. Regardless, though any modeling effort leaves room for improvement, these error estimations generally suggest that modeling maintains reasonable error across its important dimensions. Still, this high level overview ignores some deeper modeling information made available by this project. Therefore, for further documentation and detailed results as well as instructions on how to train / run the model on your own, please see:
<ul>
<li><a href="/#downloads" target="_blank">Download section</a> has additional information and detailed projections.</li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-pipeline" target="_blank">Pipeline repository</a> for more information about the business as usual model.</li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-interventions-doc" target="_blank">Interventions document repository</a> for high level information about the interventions and their design.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/tree/main/pt" target="_blank">pt subdirectory</a> for technical information and code for interventions.</li>
</ul>
Model outputs are converted to polymers and GHG with some numerical smoothing as documented in <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype">our tool repository</a> in which up to 1 Mt of imprecision is allowed. For additional details, see the <a href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/polymers_and_ghg.pdf">technical GHG and polymers write up</a>. Model version 2024.15 (pre-release). Tool last updated 2024-09-07. Major edits after initial release include:
<ul>
<li>Put % single use into monte carlo and center default yield loss on 2024-09-09.</li>
<li>Switch to PPP for tax on 2024-09-07.</li>
<li>Expanded Monte Carlo (includes tax) on 2024-09-06.</li>
<li>Monte Carlo options on 2024-09-05.</li>
<li>Additional update to GHG assumptions for mismanaged waste on 2024-09-02.</li>
<li>Update to GHG assumptions including adding a small mismanaged intensity on 2024-08-30.</li>
<li>Minor labeling touch up and non-substantial update to single use packaging percentages 2024-08-27.</li>
<li>Standardize million metric tons notation as "Mt" on 2024-06-23.</li>
<li>Minor stability update to GHG calculation on 2024-06-21.</li>
<li>Changed default virgin cap to 2020 levels on 2024-06-21.</li>
<li>Changed Rest of World to Majority World and NAFTA to North America on 2024-06-21.</li>
<li>Added packaging-only versions of some levers on 2024-05-25.</li>
<li>Updates to capex / opex costs for incineration and landfill on 2024-05-22.</li>
<li>Resolved bug (overall results generally unchanged) in determining trade effects and minor imprecision in virgin cap on 2024-05-21.</li>
<li>Fix to EU30 definition in future population projections on 2024-05-18.</li>
<li>Updates to EU30 definition and incorporation of new model training data on 2024-05-17.</li>
<li>Column names improved on 2024-02-14.</li>
<li>Polymer-level tracking and GHG (under feature flag) added on 2024-02-18.</li>
<li>Fully comphrehensive tracking of secondary consumption with new polymer-level data added on 2024-02-21.</li>
<li>Made global GHG public on 2024-02-22.</li>
<li>Production polymer balancing to ensure trade on 2024-03-07.</li>
<li>Simplification of polymer-level trade which is slightly less noisy on 2024-03-08.</li>
<li>Update default assumption for added material required for reuse on 2023-03-27.</li>
<li>Update reuse with addressable products parameter on 2024-04-05.</li>
</ul>
Note that we use the following region definitions:
<ul>
<li>EU30: The EU-27 as of June 20, 2024 as well as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway</li>
<li>NA: Members of the former NAFTA (United States of America, Mexico, and Canada).</li>
<li>Majority World: All countries except those in EU30, NA, and China.</li>
</ul>
See <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-pipeline" target="_blank">open source model pipeline</a> where a Docker image is available.
</div>
<div id="about-contact">
<h2>Contact Information</h2>
We have multiple methods of following up:
<ul>
<li>For general communication about this tool including for inquires regarding privacy and data, please send an email to our <a href="mailto:info@global-plastics-tool.org">project inbox</a>.</li>
<li>For feature requests, bug reports, and code contributions, please visit the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/issues" target="_blank">project issue tracker</a>. Thank you for your contribution.</li>
<li>To contact the UC Santa Barbara team specifically, see the <a href="https://bosl.ucsb.edu/contact/" target="_blank">BOSL contact form</a>.</li>
<li>To contact the UC Berkeley team, see the <a href="https://dse.berkeley.edu/contact">DSE contact form</a>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="about-privacy">
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h2>Privacy</h2>
This webpage respects your privacy and collects as little information as possible while still providing a positive user experience. By using the application, you agree to the following.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>Data Collection</h3>
This application records standard server access logs for security and stability reasons, including to prevent abuse. This is a common practice employed by many websites necessary for maintaing application function. This information includes:
<ul>
<li>IP addresses which describe from which location and internet connection the application is accessed.</li>
<li>User agent strings which provide basic information about the device and software ("browser") used to access the site.</li>
<li>The requested URLs which are unique identifiers for data and other resources requested from our servers.</li>
</ul>
These logs are maintained for security reasons and to ensure strong application performance but are anonymized within 7 days of collection. These anonymized statistics are maintained indefinently as aggregated information for us to understand usage patterns in order to improve the service and maintain its performance. The anonymized data may also include error or bug reports. That said, and no other presonal identifying information is collected including email address, phone number, race, ethnicity, age, etc. Furthermore, please note that:
<ul>
<li>Personally identifying information is never shared or sold.</li>
<li>Anonymized data do not include specific IP addresses.
<li>IP address is not retained past 7 days except for security / abuse prevention purposes if potential unusual behavior is deteced like in the case of a large number of requests.</li>
<li>No information we collect is used for advertising.</li>
<li>Though we do not ask users their age to respect their privacy, this webpage is intended for those 18 years and older.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>Data Storage</h3>
We save very limited data to your device and that data is not used to track you.
<ul>
<li>Cookies are small text files saved to your computer to maintain data such as preferences between website sessions. This application uses essential cookies to support the core function of the application to, for example, prevent showing explanatory text multiple times and improve user experience. These cookies are required by the application to function.</li>
<li>There are no non-essential cookies for this application and cookies are not used for tracking, advertising, or analytics.</li>
<li>Some browsers may save temporary copies of our data and code for performance reasons through a process called "caching" which can be controlled through your browser settings. This application may use "cache-busters" to inform your browser when new versions of application resources are available.</li>
<li>Local storage is used, for example, to save the application on your computer to support weak internet connections or offline usage. This includes the local storage of the Progressive Web Application if enabled and supported. Other use of local storage is optional in specific application features but is engaged only after your confirmation. For example, an optional additional use of local storage includes saving and loading policy scenarios.</li>
</ul>
By using this application, you agree to the transfer of standard server access logs and anonymized statistics as described above to be transferred to data centers based within the United States of America.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>Security and Access</h3>
We take security seriously. Communication between your device and our servers is encrypted with secure socket layer SSL. Access to non-anonymized logs and the configuration / code for the application is limited to the current maintainers of the project, automated systems we've constructed for running the application, and our subprocessors. Note that anonymized data may be shared with project partners for the purposes of tracking project success and impact.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>Subprocessors</h3>
See <a href="https://www.dreamhost.com/legal/customer-data-processing-addendum/">DreamHost CDPA</a> for more information about our web host / subprocessor. Anonymized bug reports may be managed with with <a href="https://sentry.io">Sentry</a>.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>External sites</h3>
Note that external sites linked from this application maintain their own privacy policies, terms of service, and licensing. This website is not responsible for any external content. We define external content to include any content at any domain other than global-plastics-tool.org.
</div>
<div class="about-embed-section">
<h3>Updates</h3>
This statement's content was last updated on 2024-01-19. Updates to this policy will be posted to this page.
</div>
</div>
<div id="about-license">
<h2>License and Terms</h2>
This project's source is available on GitHub at <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype">SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype</a>. See below for licensing details:
<ul>
<li>Application and source code are available under the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/blob/main/LICENSE.md#source" target="_blank">BSD License</a>.</li>
<li>Data including exports from this tool are made available under the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/blob/main/LICENSE.md#data" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0 License</a>.</li>
<li>The content of this website is available under the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/blob/main/LICENSE.md#data" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0 License</a>.</li>
</ul>
This application uses a number of open source components as described in the <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype#open-source" target="_blank">project readme</a>. A <a href="/robots.txt">robots.txt</a> is available.
</div>
<div id="about-people">
<h2>People and Funding</h2>
The copyright for this software is "(c) 2024 Regents of University of California" and our <a href="mailto:info@global-plastics-tool.org">central inbox</a> can be used to contact us with any inquires. A big thank you to the authors:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://gleap.org" target="_blank">Sam Pottinger</a> <span class="affiliation">DSE, UC Berkeley</span>: Software engineering, lead machine learning / AI, business as usual modeling, policy modeling, lead UX / design (this tool), lead data visualization (this tool), CI / CD, language engineering. Co-first author.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.rolandgeyer.com/" target="_blank">Roland Geyer</a> <span class="affiliation">UCSB</span>: Principal investigator, business as usual modeling, policy modeling, policy research, plastics domain knowledge. Co-first author.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nivedita-r-biyani-ph-d-5115228" target="_blank">Nivedita Biyani</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, UCSB</span>: Policy research, policy modeling, business as usual modeling, plastics domain knowledge. Co-first author.</li>
<li><a href="http://cieramartinez.org/" target="_blank">Ciera Martinez</a> <span class="affiliation">DSE, UC Berkeley</span>: Program management, communications, outreach, advisor, tutorial and new user flow.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-nathan" target="_blank">Neil Nathan</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, UCSB</span>: Communications, outreach, media, data visualization (<a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">landing page</a>), UX / design (<a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">landing page</a>), overview tab design.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mollyrmorse" target="_blank">Molly Morse</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, UCSB</span>: Program management, communications, outreach, media, data visualization (<a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">landing page</a>), UX / design (<a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">landing page</a>), overview tab design.</li>
<li><a href="https://dse.berkeley.edu/people/magali-de-bruyn" target="_blank">Magali de Bruyn</a> <span class="affiliation">DSE, UC Berkeley</span>: Guidance on programming portals, CI / CD, and DSL feedback.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.carlboettiger.info/" target="_blank">Carl Boettiger</a> <span class="affiliation">DSE, UC Berkeley</span>: Advisor.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/elijahbaker" target="_blank">Elijah Baker</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, UCSB</span>: Policy research.</li>
<li><a href="https://dse.berkeley.edu/people/kevin-koy" target="_blank">Kevin Koy</a> <span class="affiliation">DSE, UC Berkeley</span>: Executive leadership, advisor, overview tab design.</li>
<li><a href="https://labs.eemb.ucsb.edu/mccauley/doug/index.html" target="_blank">Douglas McCauley</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, DSE, UCSB, UC Berkeley</span>: Executive leadership, policy modeling, policy reserach, communications, outreach, media, data visualization, UX / design. Co-first author.</li>
</ul>
Acknowledgements:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kellytwang" target="_blank">Kelly Wang</a> <span class="affiliation">BOSL, UCSB</span>: Communications</li>
<li><a href="#" onclick="alert('No url available for Linda.')">Linda Nakasone</a> <span class="affiliation">Community</span>: Community provided bug reports.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.thoughtlab.com/" target="_blank">ThoughtLab</a> <span class="affiliation">Agency</span>: Development for the <a href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">landing page</a>.</li>
</ul>
A <a href="/humans.txt">humans.txt</a> with additional detail is available with the above people in alphabetical order except for Sam who is serving as the web contact and, thus, listed first. Note that other collaborators may have contributed to the broader constellation of related projects and are listed in related publications. Funding was provided by the <a href="https://bosl.ucsb.edu/">Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory</a>, the <a href="https://dse.berkeley.edu/">Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment</a>, the <a href="https://march-group.com/">March Marine Initiative</a>, and Mary Ann Harris.
</div>
<div id="about-publication">
<h2>Publication</h2>
Publications are still in progress. Please cite the pre-print at <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.11359">10.48550/arXiv.2312.11359</a>. See also our <a href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype/blob/main/CITATION.cff">CITATION.cff</a> file. Thank you!
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="toc">
<div class="about-panel">
<h2>Table of Contents</h2>
<ul>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#settings">Settings and Accessibility</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about">About</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-contact">About: Contact information</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-license">About: License</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-model">About: Model</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#simulation">About: Monte Carlo</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-people">About: People and Funding</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-privacy">About: Privacy</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-publication">About: Publication (how to cite)</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#about-overview">About: Tool overview</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed">Details</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-controls">Details: Controls for visualization</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-policy-file">Details: Controls for file</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-controls">Details: Consumption summary</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-cross-region">Details: Cross-region visualization</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-policy-customization">Details: Policy customization / fine-tuning</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-production-summary">Details: Start of life summary</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-waste-summary">Details: End of life / waste summary</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#detailed-anchor-timeseries">Details: Timeseries graph</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#downloads">Downloads</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#downloads-bau">Downloads: Business as usual projections</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#downloads-pipeline">Downloads: Pipeline outputs</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#downloads-standalone">Downloads: Standalone engine</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#downloads-snapshot">Downloads: Standardized Snapshot</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide">Guide</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-consumption">Guide: Consumption</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-intro">Guide: Introduction and start page</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-policy">Guide: Policy</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-resources">Guide: Resources</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#guide-waste">Guide: Waste</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/additives.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Additives</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/consumption_tax.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Consumption tax</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/engine.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Engine</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/recycling_investment.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: GHG and Polymers</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/incineration_investment.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Incineration investment</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/ml.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Machine Learning</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/max_mismanaged_rate.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Max mismanaged rate</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/min_recycled_content.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Min recycled content</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/min_recycling_rate.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Min recycling rate (collection)</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/recycling_investment.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Recycling investment</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/reduce_packaging.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Reduce packaging</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/reduce_ps.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Reduce polystyrene</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/virgin_plastic_cap.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Virgin plastic cap</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/waste_management_investment.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Waste management investment</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://global-plastics-tool.org/pdf/waste_trade.pdf" target="_blank">Implementation Details: Waste trade</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://plasticstreaty.berkeley.edu/" target="_blank">Interactive Introduction</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="https://github.com/SchmidtDSE/plastics-prototype" target="_blank">Open source repository</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#overview-panel">Overview</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#overview-anchor-selector">Overview: Controls for policy</a></li>
<li><a class="toc-link" href="#overview-anchor-file">Overview: Controls for file</a></li>