Generated: 2025-05-18 09:57:40 Game: /Users/alxdfy/Documents/mldev/AI_Diplomacy/results/20250517_202611_germanywin_o3/lmvsgame.json
- Total moments analyzed: 228
- Betrayals: 84
- Collaborations: 101
- Playing Both Sides: 43
- AUSTRIA: openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b
- ENGLAND: gemini-2.5-pro-preview-05-06
- FRANCE: o4-mini
- GERMANY: o3
- ITALY: claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
- RUSSIA: openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta
- TURKEY: openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)
Promise/Agreement: Italy proposed attacking Vienna from Trieste, and Russia agreed to support this with its unit in Budapest.
Actual Action: Italy ordered A TRI - VIE and Russia ordered A BUD S A TRI - VIE. The move was successful as Austria had no defense.
Impact: Italy successfully took Vienna, eliminating Austria as a major power and shifting the balance of power in the Balkans and Central Europe.
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b)
Promise/Agreement: While not explicitly stated in the provided text snippet, the 'erstwhile Habsburg ally' reference implies an alliance or at least a non-aggression pact between Italy and Austria that was broken.
Actual Action: Italy attacked Austria, capturing Trieste, Vienna, and Budapest, eliminating Austria from the game.
Impact: Italy gained three key supply centers and eliminated a rival. This dramatically shifted the power balance in the Balkans and Central Europe.
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3)
Promise/Agreement: Italy repeatedly promised to support Germany's attack on Warsaw with A RUM S A GAL-WAR.
Actual Action: Italy ordered 'A RUM H'.
Impact: Invalidated Germany's planned attack on Warsaw, which required Italian support from Rumania to achieve the necessary 3-vs-2 advantage. Russia's army in Warsaw was not dislodged.
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3), TURKEY (openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview)
Promise/Agreement: Italy promised Germany support for their A GAL->WAR move with A RUM. Italy also discussed with Turkey coordinating against Germany and potentially moving A RUM against Galicia.
Actual Action: Italy ordered A RUM H. Despite multiple explicit confirmations to Germany that A RUM would support A GAL->WAR, Italy held the unit. Italy also discussed coordinated anti-German action with Turkey.
Impact: Italy reneged on its explicit promise to Germany, which contributed to Germany's attack on Warsaw failing. This saved Russia. By holding, Italy kept its options open for future turns, potentially against Germany or Turkey, while maintaining a facade of collaboration with both.
Powers Involved: FRANCE (o4-mini), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)
Promise/Agreement: France promised to hold its fleets in the Western Med on defense and keep the Marseille/Provence boundary strictly.
Actual Action: France moved F LYO - TUS, directly violating the agreed upon boundary and attacking an Italian home territory.
Impact: This move immediately creates a direct conflict between France and Italy, opening a new front and diverting Italian attention from Germany. It fundamentally shifts the dynamic in the Mediterranean.
Powers Involved: GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)
Promise/Agreement: Germany repeatedly promised Italy and Russia that its army in Galicia would withdraw to Silesia (A GAL->SIL) and not enter the proposed buffer zone provinces (GAL, BOH, BUD, TYR, VIE). To Italy: 'Orders for S1912 are set: A GAL->SIL (supported from BER) while all other German armies HOLD. I ask that RUM and SER also HOLD and that no Italian unit enter GAL, BOH, or BUD this turn; that would prove the sincerity of your de-escalation talk. If this mutual test succeeds we can formalise TYR–BOH–GAL–VIE–BUD as a permanent DMZ'. To Russia: 'Confirming once more: A GAL→SIL (BER S), no German move on WAR. If Galicia is empty after adjudication I will order SIL HOLD in F1912 and can support WAR->UKR or PRU at your preference.'
Actual Action: Germany ordered A GAL - BUD, taking Budapest which is clearly within the proposed buffer zone and a Russian sphere of influence.
Impact: Germany significantly violated its promises to both Italy and Russia regarding the Central European buffer zone, securing a critical supply center (Budapest) and demonstrating aggressive expansionism despite claiming restraint. This directly undermines the trust Germany attempted to build and dramatically shifts the strategic landscape, likely alienating Russia and Italy and potentially provoking a stronger multi-power response.
Powers Involved: GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)
Promise/Agreement: Germany repeatedly promised to support Russia's A WAR-UKR move and to keep A SIL holding, with no German units moving east of PRU/BOH.
Actual Action: Germany ordered A SIL - WAR, supported by A PRU.
Impact: Russia believed Germany would support their move to Ukraine and maintain the neutral belt. Instead, Germany attacked and took Warsaw, eliminating a Russian unit and gaining a supply center, significantly advancing Germany's position and likely eliminating Russia as a major threat.
Powers Involved: AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)
Promise/Agreement: Italy and Austria discuss a non-aggression pact regarding Trieste if Italy keeps Venice stationary. Austria agrees to this and states its Trieste fleet will remain defensive so long as Venice holds its position and Italy's sails stay west of Otranto and avoid ALB/RUM. Italy confirms A VEN will remain stationary and its fleet movements will focus on Tunis and possibly Greece, assuring these are not hostile to Austrian interests.
Actual Action: Italy orders 'A VEN H', honoring its promise. Austria orders 'F TRI - ALB'. This move directly violates the spirit of their agreement and Austria's assurance that F Trieste would remain defensive and that Italy's movements in the Mediterranean were acceptable if they focused west of Otranto and avoided ALB/RUM. By moving into Albania, Austria takes an aggressive stance in an area Italy considers a potential expansion direction (Greece/Eastern Med) and ignores its own criteria for Italy's fleet movements.
Impact: Austria directly stabs Italy by moving its Trieste fleet into Albania despite agreeing to a non-aggression pact based on Venice holding. This aggressive move immediately creates conflict with Italy and undermines the potential for southern cooperation, forcing Italy to potentially re-evaluate its eastern focus.
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b)
Promise/Agreement: Italy repeatedly reassured Austria about maintaining their non-aggression pact, the Trieste-Venice accord, and focusing on the east. Austria believed Italy would not move on Trieste.
Actual Action: ITALY ordered A VEN - TRI, taking Trieste from Austria.
Impact: Italy gains a supply center and significantly weakens Austria's strategic position, particularly in the Balkans and Adriatic. It opens up a new war front for Austria unexpectedly.
Powers Involved: ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), FRANCE (o4-mini), AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b), GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)
Promise/Agreement: Italy maintained a non-aggression pact with France, discussed coordination against Austria with Russia, and reassured Austria about peace while simultaneously being encouraged by Germany to attack France or distract them and coordinating with Russia against Austria.
Actual Action: Italy moved F TUN - ION and A NAP - APU (potentially against France's interests), moved A VEN - TRI (against Austria with Russian coordination), and rejected Germany's explicit proposals against France while accepting Russian overtures against Austria.
Impact: Italy successfully played multiple angles, leveraging different potential alliances to make significant gains (Trieste and establishing position in the Central Med) while keeping its options open against France and openly attacking Austria with Russian support. Italy's actions contradicted direct promises to both France and Austria.
- W1907A (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b)): While not explicitly stated in the provided text snippet, the 'erstwhile Habsburg ally' reference im... Score: 10.0
- F1908M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3)): Italy repeatedly promised to support Germany's attack on Warsaw with A RUM S A GAL-WAR.... Score: 10.0
- F1911M (FRANCE (o4-mini), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)): France promised to hold its fleets in the Western Med on defense and keep the Marseille/Provence bou... Score: 10.0
- S1912M (GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)): Germany repeatedly promised Italy and Russia that its army in Galicia would withdraw to Silesia (A G... Score: 10.0
- F1914M (GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)): Germany repeatedly promised to support Russia's A WAR-UKR move and to keep A SIL holding, with no Ge... Score: 10.0
- S1903M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)): Italy proposed attacking Vienna from Trieste, and Russia agreed to support this with its unit in Bud... Score: 10.0
- F1902R (RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)): While no explicit message is provided in the prompt from Italy to Russia, the simultaneous capture o... Score: 9.5
- F1903M (FRANCE (o4-mini), GERMANY (o3)): France and Germany agreed to a coordinated attack on Belgium, with France moving F PIC to BEL suppor... Score: 9.5
- S1905M (GERMANY (o3), FRANCE (o4-mini)): Germany proposed an aggressive naval plan in the North Sea (F SKA -> NTH) requiring French support f... Score: 9.5
- S1906M (FRANCE (o4-mini), GERMANY (o3), ENGLAND (gemini-2.5-pro-preview-05-06)): France and Germany agreed to coordinate naval movements to attack England in the North Sea, with Fra... Score: 9.5
- F1909M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3), TURKEY (openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview)): Italy promised Germany support for their A GAL->WAR move with A RUM. Italy also discussed with Turke... Score: 10.0
- S1902M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), FRANCE (o4-mini), AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b), GERMANY (o3), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta)): Italy maintained a non-aggression pact with France, discussed coordination against Austria with Russ... Score: 9.5
- F1910M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3), TURKEY (openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta), FRANCE (o4-mini)): Italy messaged Germany calling for concrete measures regarding German withdrawal and promising defen... Score: 9.5
- S1915M (ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219), GERMANY (o3), TURKEY (openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview), FRANCE (o4-mini)): Italy is publicly allied with Turkey against German expansion and negotiating specific territorial a... Score: 9.5
- S1901M (AUSTRIA (openrouter-qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b), RUSSIA (openrouter-x-ai/grok-3-beta), TURKEY (openrouter-google/gemini-2.5-flash-preview), ITALY (claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219)): Austria makes conflicting proposals to its neighbours. To Russia, Austria suggests avoiding friction... Score: 9.0