Description
Using core program from 27/09/2023 with Zim_parameters_08a and Zimbabwe abort statement we are finding p_mcirc_1549m reaches around 70% in 2023.
In MIHPSA Phase 1 for Synthesis:
- in 2022 0.42
- in 2040 0.68
The other mathematical models in MIHPSA have less than 40% by 2023.
In MIHPSA phase 1 we did not have the parameter rel_incr_circ_post_2015.
In core : %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013, 0.8 1 3 7, 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.40);
if circ_inc_rate=0.1 then rel_incr_circ_post_2013=min(rel_incr_circ_post_2013, 1);
In the Zim parameters file: %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013, 2 3 4, 0.25 0.5 0.25);
In core: rel_incr_circ_post_2015=1;
In the Zim parameters file: %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2015, 7 8 9, 0.35 0.5 0.20);
rel_incr_circ_post_2013 and rel_incr_circ_post_2015 are always multiplied together, so it does not make sense to have these 2 parameters as they are misleading, they both apply to the period 2013 to 2019.
I am going to try to comment out rel_incr_circ_post_2015 from the Zim parameters and see what happens.