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PolyPatronBot — Deployment Guide

What is this

AI-powered trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. Uses Claude AI (via CLI) to analyze markets, estimate true probabilities, and trade when it finds mispricing.

Architecture

┌─────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌────────────┐
│  Gamma API  │────▶│  Engine      │────▶│ CLOB API   │
│ (market data)│    │  (5s ticks)  │     │ (orders)   │
└─────────────┘     └──────┬───────┘     └────────────┘
                           │
                    ┌──────▼───────┐
                    │ AI Forecast  │
                    │  Strategy    │
                    └──────┬───────┘
                           │
                    ┌──────▼───────┐
                    │ Claude CLI   │
                    │ (analysis)   │
                    └──────────────┘

Signal pipeline: Gamma markets → filters → price history → Claude AI analysis → signal → size → risk check → CLOB order

Position management: Trailing stop (+15% activation, 8% trail), take profit (+30%), stop loss (-15%), time exit (24h)

Server Requirements

  • Ubuntu 22.04+ (or any Linux with systemd)
  • Node.js 20+
  • 2GB+ RAM
  • Claude Code CLI (authenticated with Claude Max subscription)
  • Caddy (reverse proxy for dashboard HTTPS)

Files & Secrets

File Location on server Description
.env /opt/polypatronbot-new/.env API keys, private keys, tokens
config.yaml /opt/polypatronbot-new/config.yaml Trading parameters, risk limits
.credentials.json /root/.claude/.credentials.json Claude CLI OAuth token (expires ~24h, auto-refreshes)
entry-records.json /opt/polypatronbot-new/entry-records.json Persisted position tracking (auto-created)

Environment Variables (.env)

Variable Description
ENABLE_LIVE_TRADING Must be true for real trades (also needs enable_live_trading: true in config.yaml)
PK_PRIVATE_KEY Ethereum private key for Polymarket wallet
CLOB_API_KEY Polymarket CLOB API key
CLOB_SECRET Polymarket CLOB API secret
CLOB_PASSPHRASE Polymarket CLOB API passphrase
POLYMARKET_PROXY_ADDRESS Polymarket proxy wallet address
DASHBOARD_PORT Dashboard HTTP port (default: 3000)
DASHBOARD_ORIGIN Dashboard URL for CORS (e.g., https://poly.qzx.digital)
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN Telegram bot token for notifications
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID Telegram chat ID for notifications

Trading Config (config.yaml)

Key parameters:

  • capital: 99.36 — starting capital for ROI calculation
  • max_position_size: 25 — max $ per single position
  • max_open_trades: 25 — max simultaneous positions (includes manual pre-existing)
  • max_daily_loss: 15 — stop trading after $15 daily loss
  • max_drawdown: 0.15 — 15% drawdown circuit breaker
  • refresh_minutes: 15 — how often strategy re-evaluates markets

Strategy Constants (in source: src/strategies/research_ai/ai_forecast_strategy.ts)

  • MIN_HISTORY = 3 — minimum price data points before analyzing (3 polls × 2min = 6min cold start)
  • MIN_CONFIDENCE = 0.30 — minimum Claude confidence to generate signal
  • MIN_EDGE = 0.015 — minimum 1.5% edge (covers ~2% fees)
  • MAX_POSITIONS = 10 — max positions the strategy itself will open
  • TAKE_PROFIT_PCT = 0.30 — take profit at +30%
  • STOP_LOSS_PCT = 0.15 — stop loss at -15%
  • TRAILING_ACTIVATION = 0.15 — trailing stop activates at +15%
  • TRAILING_DISTANCE = 0.08 — trail 8% below peak

Fresh Server Setup

# 1. On your local machine: copy project to new server
scp -r /path/to/polypatronbot-new root@NEW_IP:/opt/polypatronbot-new

# 2. SSH to server and run setup
ssh root@NEW_IP
bash /opt/polypatronbot-new/deploy/setup.sh

# 3. Copy Claude credentials from your local machine
scp ~/.claude/.credentials.json root@NEW_IP:/root/.claude/.credentials.json

# 4. Point DNS: poly.qzx.digital → NEW_IP (A record)

# 5. Open firewall
ufw allow 22,80,443/tcp
ufw --force enable

# 6. Verify
systemctl status polypatronbot-new
journalctl -u polypatronbot-new -f

Quick Deploy (code updates only)

# From your local machine:
bash deploy/deploy.sh root@SERVER_IP

Or manually:

scp -r src/ root@SERVER_IP:/opt/polypatronbot-new/src/
scp config.yaml root@SERVER_IP:/opt/polypatronbot-new/config.yaml
ssh root@SERVER_IP "cd /opt/polypatronbot-new && npx tsc && rm -rf dist/src && systemctl restart polypatronbot-new"

Operations

View logs

journalctl -u polypatronbot-new -f                    # live tail
journalctl -u polypatronbot-new --since '1 hour ago'  # recent
journalctl -u polypatronbot-new | grep 'Signal funnel' | tail -5  # signal pipeline
journalctl -u polypatronbot-new | grep 'Placing\|Executed\|rejected' | tail -10  # orders

Restart

systemctl restart polypatronbot-new

Dashboard

Claude credentials renewal

The OAuth token expires every ~24h. Claude CLI auto-refreshes it when it has internet access. If the token expires while offline:

# On your local machine (where Claude is logged in):
scp ~/.claude/.credentials.json root@SERVER_IP:/root/.claude/.credentials.json
systemctl restart polypatronbot-new

Known Issues & Mitigations

Cloudflare Rate Limiting (CLOB API)

Polymarket's CLOB API is behind Cloudflare. Aggressive POST /order requests trigger 429 bans.

  • Bot has exponential backoff: 2h → 4h after rate limit detection
  • Keep CLOB_MIN_INTERVAL at 2s+ between API calls
  • Don't restart rapidly after 429 errors — each retry during a ban extends it

Cold Start

After restart, price history is empty. Takes ~6 minutes (3 polls × 2min) before any market qualifies for Claude analysis.

Claude CLI Failures

If Claude fails 5 times consecutively, it auto-disables for 10 minutes then retries. Common causes: token expiry, network issues, Claude service outage.

Wallet

  • Address: 0x564f396622AEc4a6A630CdDfB6300ECc5C94E1C5
  • Proxy: 0xe1418b66a53D03C28524e8C64377C8EaeB69F93a
  • Chain: Polygon (Polymarket uses USDC on Polygon)
  • Capital is held as USDC in the proxy wallet