CEPH-Rtrend_rsv.yaml

team_name: "CEPH Lab at Indiana University"
team_abbr: "CEPH"
model_name: "Rtrend RSV"
model_abbr: "Rtrend_rsv"
model_version: 2025-12-08
model_contributors: [
  {
    "name": "Marco Ajelli",
    "affiliation": "Indiana University Bloomington",
    "email": "majelli@iu.edu",
  },
  {
    "name": "Paulo C. Ventura",
    "affiliation": "Indiana University Bloomington",
    "email": "pventura@iu.edu",
  },
  {
    "name": "Maria Litvinova",
    "affiliation": "Indiana University Bloomington",
    "email": "malitv@iu.edu",
  },
  {
    "name": "Allisandra G. Kummer",
    "affiliation": "Indiana University Bloomington",
    "email": "alkummer@iu.edu",
  },
  {
    "name": "Shreeya Mhade",
    "affiliation": "Indiana University Bloomington",
    "email": "smhade@iu.edu",
  }, 
]
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
designated_model: true
data_inputs: "Weekly incident RSV hospitalizations from NHSN"
methods: "A renewal equation method based on Bayesian estimation of Rt from past hospitalization data."
methods_long: <
  Model forecasts are obtained by using a renewal equation based on the 
  estimated net reproduction number Rt. We use a spline interpolation 
  to obtain daily data from weekly incidence, then apply a lowpass filter 
  to extract the main trend. We then estimate the posterior distribution 
  of Rt based on the filtered data, considering an informed prior on Rt 
  based on RSV literature. The estimated Rt in the last weeks of 
  available data is used to forecast Rt in the upcoming weeks, with a 
  drift term proportional to the current incidence.  Finally, we use 
  the renewal equation with the posterior distribution and trend of the 
  estimated Rt to forecast RSV hospitalization trajectories.
ensemble_of_models: false
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
website_url: https://github.com/CEPH-Lab
designated_github_users: ["paulocv", "shreeyamhade", "allisandrak"]
team_funding: "We acknowledge support from the CDC-RFA-FT-23-0069 cooperative agreement from the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics."