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| 1 | +# AI Backlash Observations |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +## Purpose |
| 4 | + |
| 5 | +Document what you're seeing first-hand as AI-generated code hits reality. When the backlash comes, you'll have specific examples and language that resonates. |
| 6 | + |
| 7 | +## The Hype Cycle |
| 8 | + |
| 9 | +1. **Christmas 2024:** "I built an app with one prompt!" |
| 10 | +2. **Early 2025:** "Look what AI can do!" |
| 11 | +3. **3-6 months later:** "Why is this codebase unmaintainable?" |
| 12 | +4. **Later:** "We need someone to fix this" |
| 13 | + |
| 14 | +## Your Bet |
| 15 | + |
| 16 | +The backlash comes before AI gets good enough to fix its own messes. Probably 1-2 years window. |
| 17 | + |
| 18 | +## What to Track |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | +- AI ignoring instructions (even with good CLAUDE.md / system prompts) |
| 21 | +- Patterns that keep appearing despite guidance |
| 22 | +- Codebases that become unmaintainable |
| 23 | +- Teams struggling to onboard into AI-generated code |
| 24 | +- "Rebuilt from scratch" stories |
| 25 | +- Devs refusing to work on AI messes |
| 26 | +- Founders realising they can't sell/raise with incomprehensible code |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +## Observations |
| 29 | + |
| 30 | +### January 2025 |
| 31 | + |
| 32 | +**Exponential Duplication - The Core Problem** |
| 33 | + |
| 34 | +AI duplicates on an industrial scale. Every solved problem gets re-solved badly, across every team, every codebase. |
| 35 | + |
| 36 | +**Example: Table Components** |
| 37 | + |
| 38 | +- Dev asks AI for "table with editing" |
| 39 | +- AI builds from scratch using @mui primitives instead of using material-react-table (3+ years of edge cases solved, tested by thousands) |
| 40 | +- Works for the demo |
| 41 | +- Edge cases appear: keyboard navigation, cell validation, copy/paste, accessibility, column resizing |
| 42 | +- Dev asks AI to fix each one, AI adds more code |
| 43 | +- Repeat across multiple teams/features |
| 44 | +- Now you have multiple bespoke table implementations, each with its own bugs |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +**The Multiplication Problem** |
| 47 | + |
| 48 | +- 5 bespoke tables × 10 features = 50 implementations to maintain |
| 49 | +- New requirement (export to CSV): 5 separate implementations |
| 50 | +- Bug in pagination logic: 5 places to fix, if you can find them all |
| 51 | +- Virtualisation, paging, sorting - every feature added to every table separately |
| 52 | +- One team does it right, others don't know that solution exists |
| 53 | + |
| 54 | +**The Timeline** |
| 55 | + |
| 56 | +- Month 1: "AI is so fast, we shipped 5 features!" |
| 57 | +- Month 6: "Why does everything take so long now?" |
| 58 | +- Month 12: "We need to rebuild" |
| 59 | + |
| 60 | +**What Should Happen** |
| 61 | + |
| 62 | +One table component, configured per use case. New feature added once, everyone benefits. |
| 63 | + |
| 64 | +**What AI Creates** |
| 65 | + |
| 66 | +Fragmented, diverging copies. Each "quick win" becomes permanent maintenance burden. Codebase gets heavier with every feature. |
| 67 | + |
| 68 | +**Key Talking Point** |
| 69 | + |
| 70 | +"AI speed now becomes AI debt later. Most teams don't see it until they're drowning." |
| 71 | + |
| 72 | +--- |
| 73 | + |
| 74 | +### Template for Each Observation |
| 75 | + |
| 76 | +**Date:** |
| 77 | +**Context:** (client work, personal project, community discussion) |
| 78 | +**What happened:** |
| 79 | +**What AI got wrong:** |
| 80 | +**What a senior dev would have done differently:** |
| 81 | +**Potential talking point:** |
| 82 | + |
| 83 | +--- |
| 84 | + |
| 85 | +## Patterns Emerging |
| 86 | + |
| 87 | +(summarise recurring themes as you collect observations) |
| 88 | + |
| 89 | +## Language That Might Resonate |
| 90 | + |
| 91 | +(phrases, framings, ways to describe the problem that non-technical buyers would understand) |
| 92 | + |
| 93 | +## Signals the Backlash is Coming |
| 94 | + |
| 95 | +- [ ] First "we rebuilt from scratch" posts appearing |
| 96 | +- [ ] Hiring posts mentioning "clean up AI-generated code" |
| 97 | +- [ ] VCs/founders complaining about technical debt from AI |
| 98 | +- [ ] Devs publicly refusing AI-heavy roles |
| 99 | +- [ ] Conference talks about AI code quality problems |
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