📝 Confidence bias and belief calibration in thinking section

Author: davidgasquez

Thinking.md

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
   - Many beliefs are held because there is a social and tribal benefit to holding them, not necessarily because they're true.
   - A great way to do that is to [bet on everything](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybYBCK9D7MZCcdArB/how-to-measure-anything) where you can or will find out the answer. Even if you're only testing yourself against one other person, it's a way of calibrating yourself to avoid both overconfidence and under-confidence, which will serve you in good stead emotionally when you try to do [[Fallacies|inadequacy reasoning]]. It'll also force you to do falsifiable predictions.
     - A tool to assign a percentage to a belief is [the equivalent bet test](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EtxTDPMXrbmpheiAt/how-the-equivalent-bet-test-actually-works).
+    - People have an incentive [to be the "most confident in the room"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_QK4stCJU) as that gives us a hedge against the rest.
 - Instead of thinking "I'm sure X is fake!", try to think in terms of probabilities. E.g: I think there's a 90% chance X is fake. Instead of thinking in terms of changing your mind, think in terms of updating your probabilities. [This mindset](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-scout-mindset) makes it easier to remember that it's not a question of winning or losing, but a question of being as accurate as possible. "Probability update" is less emotionally devastating than "I said X, but actually ~X, so I was wrong").
 - You can try things to find out which ideas are right or wrong. It requires asking "What else would be true if this thing were true?" or "What would be different depending on whether X versus Y were true?".
 - Knowledge decays. Things you learned in the past might not be true nowadays (_status of Pluto as a planet, dinosaurs with feathers, number of people living, ..._). [Facts decay over time until they are no longer facts or perhaps no longer complete](https://fs.blog/2018/03/half-life/).