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25 | 25 | <title>Continuous Ranked Probability Score - Scoringrules</title> |
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640 | 640 | </span> |
641 | 641 | </a> |
642 | 642 |
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| 643 | +</li> |
| 644 | + |
| 645 | + <li class="md-nav__item"> |
| 646 | + <a href="#scoringrules.crps_mixnorm" class="md-nav__link"> |
| 647 | + <span class="md-ellipsis"> |
| 648 | + crps_mixnorm |
| 649 | + </span> |
| 650 | + </a> |
| 651 | + |
643 | 652 | </li> |
644 | 653 |
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645 | 654 | <li class="md-nav__item"> |
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1168 | 1177 | </span> |
1169 | 1178 | </a> |
1170 | 1179 |
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| 1180 | +</li> |
| 1181 | + |
| 1182 | + <li class="md-nav__item"> |
| 1183 | + <a href="#scoringrules.crps_mixnorm" class="md-nav__link"> |
| 1184 | + <span class="md-ellipsis"> |
| 1185 | + crps_mixnorm |
| 1186 | + </span> |
| 1187 | + </a> |
| 1188 | + |
1171 | 1189 | </li> |
1172 | 1190 |
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1173 | 1191 | <li class="md-nav__item"> |
@@ -4731,6 +4749,167 @@ <h3 id="scoringrules.crps_lognormal" class="doc doc-heading"> |
4731 | 4749 | <div class="doc doc-object doc-function"> |
4732 | 4750 |
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4733 | 4751 |
|
| 4752 | +<h3 id="scoringrules.crps_mixnorm" class="doc doc-heading"> |
| 4753 | + <span class="doc doc-object-name doc-function-name">scoringrules.crps_mixnorm</span> |
| 4754 | + |
| 4755 | + |
| 4756 | +</h3> |
| 4757 | +<div class="language-python doc-signature highlight"><pre><span></span><code><span id="__span-0-1"><a id="__codelineno-0-1" name="__codelineno-0-1" href="#__codelineno-0-1"></a><span class="nf">crps_mixnorm</span><span class="p">(</span> |
| 4758 | +</span><span id="__span-0-2"><a id="__codelineno-0-2" name="__codelineno-0-2" href="#__codelineno-0-2"></a> <span class="n">observation</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4759 | +</span><span id="__span-0-3"><a id="__codelineno-0-3" name="__codelineno-0-3" href="#__codelineno-0-3"></a> <span class="n">m</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4760 | +</span><span id="__span-0-4"><a id="__codelineno-0-4" name="__codelineno-0-4" href="#__codelineno-0-4"></a> <span class="n">s</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4761 | +</span><span id="__span-0-5"><a id="__codelineno-0-5" name="__codelineno-0-5" href="#__codelineno-0-5"></a> <span class="o">/</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4762 | +</span><span id="__span-0-6"><a id="__codelineno-0-6" name="__codelineno-0-6" href="#__codelineno-0-6"></a> <span class="n">w</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4763 | +</span><span id="__span-0-7"><a id="__codelineno-0-7" name="__codelineno-0-7" href="#__codelineno-0-7"></a> <span class="n">axis</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="o">-</span><span class="mi">1</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4764 | +</span><span id="__span-0-8"><a id="__codelineno-0-8" name="__codelineno-0-8" href="#__codelineno-0-8"></a> <span class="o">*</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4765 | +</span><span id="__span-0-9"><a id="__codelineno-0-9" name="__codelineno-0-9" href="#__codelineno-0-9"></a> <span class="n">backend</span><span class="p">:</span> <span class="n">Backend</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="kc">None</span><span class="p">,</span> |
| 4766 | +</span><span id="__span-0-10"><a id="__codelineno-0-10" name="__codelineno-0-10" href="#__codelineno-0-10"></a><span class="p">)</span> <span class="o">-></span> <span class="n">ArrayLike</span> |
| 4767 | +</span></code></pre></div> |
| 4768 | + |
| 4769 | + <div class="doc doc-contents first"> |
| 4770 | + |
| 4771 | + <p>Compute the closed form of the CRPS for a mixture of normal distributions.</p> |
| 4772 | +<p>It is based on the following formulation from |
| 4773 | +<a href="https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.235">Grimit et al. (2006)</a>:</p> |
| 4774 | +<div class="arithmatex">\[ \mathrm{CRPS}(F, y) = \sum_{i=1}^{M} w_{i} A(y - \mu_{i}, \sigma_{i}^{2}) - \frac{1}{2} \sum_{i=1}^{M} \sum_{j=1}^{M} w_{i} w_{j} A(\mu_{i} - \mu_{j}, \sigma_{i}^{2} + \sigma_{j}^{2}), \]</div> |
| 4775 | +<p>where <span class="arithmatex">\(F(x) = \sum_{i=1}^{M} w_{i} \Phi \left( \frac{x - \mu_{i}}{\sigma_{i}} \right)\)</span>, |
| 4776 | +and <span class="arithmatex">\(A(\mu, \sigma^{2}) = \mu (2 \Phi(\frac{\mu}{\sigma}) - 1) + 2\sigma \phi(\frac{\mu}{\sigma}).\)</span></p> |
| 4777 | + |
| 4778 | + |
| 4779 | +<p><span class="doc-section-title">Parameters:</span></p> |
| 4780 | + <table> |
| 4781 | + <thead> |
| 4782 | + <tr> |
| 4783 | + <th>Name</th> |
| 4784 | + <th>Type</th> |
| 4785 | + <th>Description</th> |
| 4786 | + <th>Default</th> |
| 4787 | + </tr> |
| 4788 | + </thead> |
| 4789 | + <tbody> |
| 4790 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4791 | + <td><code>observation</code></td> |
| 4792 | + <td> |
| 4793 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4794 | + </td> |
| 4795 | + <td> |
| 4796 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4797 | + <p>The observed values.</p> |
| 4798 | + </div> |
| 4799 | + </td> |
| 4800 | + <td> |
| 4801 | + <em>required</em> |
| 4802 | + </td> |
| 4803 | + </tr> |
| 4804 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4805 | + <td><code>m</code></td> |
| 4806 | + <td> |
| 4807 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4808 | + </td> |
| 4809 | + <td> |
| 4810 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4811 | + <p>Means of the component normal distributions.</p> |
| 4812 | + </div> |
| 4813 | + </td> |
| 4814 | + <td> |
| 4815 | + <em>required</em> |
| 4816 | + </td> |
| 4817 | + </tr> |
| 4818 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4819 | + <td><code>s</code></td> |
| 4820 | + <td> |
| 4821 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4822 | + </td> |
| 4823 | + <td> |
| 4824 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4825 | + <p>Standard deviations of the component normal distributions.</p> |
| 4826 | + </div> |
| 4827 | + </td> |
| 4828 | + <td> |
| 4829 | + <em>required</em> |
| 4830 | + </td> |
| 4831 | + </tr> |
| 4832 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4833 | + <td><code>w</code></td> |
| 4834 | + <td> |
| 4835 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4836 | + </td> |
| 4837 | + <td> |
| 4838 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4839 | + <p>Non-negative weights assigned to each component.</p> |
| 4840 | + </div> |
| 4841 | + </td> |
| 4842 | + <td> |
| 4843 | + <code>None</code> |
| 4844 | + </td> |
| 4845 | + </tr> |
| 4846 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4847 | + <td><code>axis</code></td> |
| 4848 | + <td> |
| 4849 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4850 | + </td> |
| 4851 | + <td> |
| 4852 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4853 | + <p>The axis corresponding to the mixture components. Default is the last axis.</p> |
| 4854 | + </div> |
| 4855 | + </td> |
| 4856 | + <td> |
| 4857 | + <code>-1</code> |
| 4858 | + </td> |
| 4859 | + </tr> |
| 4860 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4861 | + <td><code>backend</code></td> |
| 4862 | + <td> |
| 4863 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.Backend">Backend</span></code> |
| 4864 | + </td> |
| 4865 | + <td> |
| 4866 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4867 | + <p>The name of the backend used for computations. Defaults to 'numba' if available, else 'numpy'.</p> |
| 4868 | + </div> |
| 4869 | + </td> |
| 4870 | + <td> |
| 4871 | + <code>None</code> |
| 4872 | + </td> |
| 4873 | + </tr> |
| 4874 | + </tbody> |
| 4875 | + </table> |
| 4876 | + |
| 4877 | + |
| 4878 | + <p><span class="doc-section-title">Returns:</span></p> |
| 4879 | + <table> |
| 4880 | + <thead> |
| 4881 | + <tr> |
| 4882 | +<th>Name</th> <th>Type</th> |
| 4883 | + <th>Description</th> |
| 4884 | + </tr> |
| 4885 | + </thead> |
| 4886 | + <tbody> |
| 4887 | + <tr class="doc-section-item"> |
| 4888 | +<td><code>score</code></td> <td> |
| 4889 | + <code><span title="scoringrules.core.typing.ArrayLike">ArrayLike</span></code> |
| 4890 | + </td> |
| 4891 | + <td> |
| 4892 | + <div class="doc-md-description"> |
| 4893 | + <p>The CRPS between MixNormal(m, s) and obs.</p> |
| 4894 | + </div> |
| 4895 | + </td> |
| 4896 | + </tr> |
| 4897 | + </tbody> |
| 4898 | + </table> |
| 4899 | + |
| 4900 | + |
| 4901 | +<p><span class="doc-section-title">Examples:</span></p> |
| 4902 | + <div class="language-pycon highlight"><pre><span></span><code><span id="__span-0-1"><a id="__codelineno-0-1" name="__codelineno-0-1" href="#__codelineno-0-1"></a><span class="gp">>>> </span><span class="kn">import</span> <span class="nn">scoringrules</span> <span class="k">as</span> <span class="nn">sr</span> |
| 4903 | +</span><span id="__span-0-2"><a id="__codelineno-0-2" name="__codelineno-0-2" href="#__codelineno-0-2"></a><span class="gp">>>> </span><span class="n">sr</span><span class="o">.</span><span class="n">crps_mixnormal</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="mf">0.0</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="p">[</span><span class="mf">0.1</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="o">-</span><span class="mf">0.3</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="mf">1.0</span><span class="p">],</span> <span class="p">[</span><span class="mf">0.4</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="mf">2.1</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="mf">0.7</span><span class="p">],</span> <span class="p">[</span><span class="mf">0.1</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="mf">0.2</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="mf">0.7</span><span class="p">])</span> |
| 4904 | +</span></code></pre></div> |
| 4905 | + |
| 4906 | + </div> |
| 4907 | + |
| 4908 | +</div> |
| 4909 | + |
| 4910 | +<div class="doc doc-object doc-function"> |
| 4911 | + |
| 4912 | + |
4734 | 4913 | <h3 id="scoringrules.crps_negbinom" class="doc doc-heading"> |
4735 | 4914 | <span class="doc doc-object-name doc-function-name">scoringrules.crps_negbinom</span> |
4736 | 4915 |
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@@ -6474,10 +6653,10 @@ <h3 id="scoringrules.crps_quantile" class="doc doc-heading"> |
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