_brief_OG.json

{
  "success": true,
  "tool": "oracle_intelligence_brief",
  "symbol": "OG",
  "timestamp": 1777992973,
  "data": {
    "symbol": "OG",
    "name": "OG Fan Token",
    "signal": "NEUTRAL",
    "final_score": 4.18,
    "regime": "VOLATILE",
    "ev_24h_pct": 0.06,
    "data_completeness_pct": 100.0,
    "analysis": {
      "symbol": "OG",
      "name": "OG Fan Token",
      "current_price": 3.02166667,
      "price_sources": {
        "binance": 3.021,
        "mexc": 3.024,
        "coingecko": 3.02,
        "spread_pct": 0.1324
      },
      "data_completeness_pct": 100.0,
      "missing_sections": [],
      "regime": {
        "regime": "VOLATILE",
        "reason": "Bollinger squeeze active on 4H \u2014 breakout pending, direction unconfirmed until volume expansion.",
        "multiplier": 0.7,
        "adx_4h": 17.57790001,
        "adx_1d": 35.47640962,
        "atr_pct_4h": 1.3483,
        "bb_squeeze_4h": true,
        "bb_bandwidth_4h": 2.42970843
      },
      "mtf": {
        "per_tf": {
          "1d": {
            "score": -22.0,
            "contributions": [
              [
                "Price < EMA200",
                -20.0
              ],
              [
                "Death cross",
                -15.0
              ],
              [
                "TK cross bearish",
                -8.0
              ],
              [
                "ADX>25 DI+>DI-",
                6.0
              ],
              [
                "RSI 40-60 healthy",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "MACD above zero",
                8
              ],
              [
                "CMF strong outflow",
                -8
              ],
              [
                "MFI healthy",
                6
              ],
              [
                "Price < VWAP",
                -6
              ]
            ],
            "available": true,
            "rsi": 52.98048035,
            "macd_crossover": "none",
            "bb_percent_b": 0.4449708,
            "volume_vs_avg": 0.24,
            "trend_direction": "bullish",
            "rsi_divergence": "none"
          },
          "4h": {
            "score": 66.0,
            "contributions": [
              [
                "Price > EMA200",
                20.0
              ],
              [
                "Golden cross",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "TK cross bullish",
                8.0
              ],
              [
                "RSI 40-60 healthy",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "MACD above zero",
                8
              ],
              [
                "MFI healthy",
                6
              ],
              [
                "Price < VWAP",
                -6
              ]
            ],
            "available": true,
            "rsi": 53.24765809,
            "macd_crossover": "none",
            "bb_percent_b": 0.5395467,
            "volume_vs_avg": 0.48,
            "trend_direction": "bullish",
            "rsi_divergence": "none"
          },
          "1h": {
            "score": 44.0,
            "contributions": [
              [
                "Price > EMA200",
                20.0
              ],
              [
                "Golden cross",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "TK cross bearish",
                -8.0
              ],
              [
                "RSI 40-60 healthy",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "MACD above zero",
                8
              ],
              [
                "Price < VWAP",
                -6
              ]
            ],
            "available": true,
            "rsi": 48.38493495,
            "macd_crossover": "none",
            "bb_percent_b": 0.44248573,
            "volume_vs_avg": 1.01,
            "trend_direction": "bullish",
            "rsi_divergence": "none"
          },
          "15m": {
            "score": -1.0,
            "contributions": [
              [
                "Price < EMA200",
                -20.0
              ],
              [
                "Golden cross",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "Ichimoku price<cloud (red)",
                -10.0
              ],
              [
                "TK cross bearish",
                -8.0
              ],
              [
                "RSI 40-60 healthy",
                15.0
              ],
              [
                "MACD above zero",
                8
              ],
              [
                "CCI recovery",
                5
              ],
              [
                "Price < VWAP",
                -6
              ]
            ],
            "available": true,
            "rsi": 45.09201559,
            "macd_crossover": "none",
            "bb_percent_b": 0.10110785,
            "volume_vs_avg": 1.42,
            "trend_direction": "bearish",
            "rsi_divergence": "none"
          }
        },
        "mtf_score": 11.82
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "score": 5,
        "contributions": [
          [
            "Funding ~0 (accumulation)",
            15
          ],
          [
            "L/S>1.5 flush fuel",
            -10
          ],
          [
            "Ask wall / short liq cluster just above",
            15
          ],
          [
            "Bid wall / long liq cluster just below",
            -15
          ]
        ],
        "funding_rate_pct": 0.005,
        "funding_sentiment": "longs_paying",
        "open_interest_usdt": 621882.0,
        "long_short_ratio": 2.9463,
        "net_flow_24h": null,
        "net_flow_interpretation": "data_unavailable",
        "whale_buy_count": 5.0,
        "whale_sell_count": 4.0
      },
      "pattern": {
        "score": 0.0,
        "pattern_name": "none",
        "pattern_direction": "neutral",
        "base_confidence_pct": null,
        "conflicts_with_mtf": false
      },
      "macro": {
        "score": 0,
        "fear_greed_value": 50.0,
        "fear_greed_trend": null,
        "fear_greed_adjustment": 0,
        "btc_dominance_pct": 58.82542124070632,
        "btc_dominance_adjustment": 0,
        "beta_vs_btc": 0.3284,
        "size_haircut_from_beta": 0.0
      },
      "sentiment_score": {
        "score": 0.0,
        "trending_rank": null,
        "sentiment_votes_up_pct": null
      },
      "composite": {
        "raw_pre_regime": 5.98,
        "final_score": 4.18,
        "signal": "NEUTRAL",
        "contributions": {
          "mtf": 4.73,
          "smart_money": 1.25,
          "pattern": 0.0,
          "sentiment": 0.0,
          "macro": 0.0
        }
      },
      "scenarios": {
        "bull": {
          "prob_pct": 23.7,
          "target_24h": 3.068,
          "target_24h_pct": 1.53,
          "target_7d": 3.16,
          "target_7d_pct": 4.58,
          "trigger": "Close > 3.0680 on 4H with volume >150% of 20-period average"
        },
        "base": {
          "prob_pct": 54.6,
          "range_24h_low": 2.9911172125000003,
          "range_24h_high": 3.0522161275,
          "range_7d_low": 2.94020145,
          "range_7d_high": 3.1031318900000002,
          "trigger": "Structure continuation without catalyst \u2014 oscillation between nearest S/R"
        },
        "bear": {
          "prob_pct": 21.8,
          "target_24h": 2.979,
          "target_24h_pct": -1.41,
          "target_7d": 2.95,
          "target_7d_pct": -2.37,
          "trigger": "Close < 2.9790 on 4H on expanding volume"
        },
        "ev_24h_pct": 0.06
      },
      "trade_plan": {
        "direction": "FLAT",
        "setup_quality": "No Trade",
        "conservative": {
          "entry_lower": null,
          "entry_upper": null,
          "entry_ideal": null,
          "stop_loss": null,
          "sl_pct": null,
          "tp1": null,
          "tp1_pct": null,
          "tp2": null,
          "tp2_pct": null,
          "tp3": null,
          "tp3_pct": null,
          "rr_tp1": 1.5,
          "rr_tp2": 2.5,
          "rr_tp3": 4.0,
          "risk_per_unit": 0
        },
        "moderate": {
          "entry_lower": null,
          "entry_upper": null,
          "entry_ideal": null,
          "stop_loss": null,
          "sl_pct": null,
          "tp1": null,
          "tp1_pct": null,
          "tp2": null,
          "tp2_pct": null,
          "tp3": null,
          "tp3_pct": null,
          "rr_tp1": 1.5,
          "rr_tp2": 2.5,
          "rr_tp3": 4.0,
          "risk_per_unit": 0
        },
        "aggressive": {
          "entry_lower": null,
          "entry_upper": null,
          "entry_ideal": null,
          "stop_loss": null,
          "sl_pct": null,
          "tp1": null,
          "tp1_pct": null,
          "tp2": null,
          "tp2_pct": null,
          "tp3": null,
          "tp3_pct": null,
          "rr_tp1": 1.5,
          "rr_tp2": 2.5,
          "rr_tp3": 4.0,
          "risk_per_unit": 0
        },
        "kelly": {
          "win_prob": "n/a",
          "avg_rr": "n/a",
          "full_kelly_pct": "n/a",
          "half_kelly_pct": "n/a",
          "half_kelly_adj_pct": "n/a"
        },
        "position_size": {
          "capital_example_usdt": 10000.0,
          "risk_pct": 1.0,
          "risk_usdt": 100.0,
          "position_usdt": 0,
          "pct_of_capital": 0,
          "beta_haircut_applied": false
        },
        "invalidation": {
          "level": null,
          "timeframe": "4H",
          "direction": "n/a"
        }
      },
      "risk_audit": {
        "funding_crowding": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "liquidity": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "whale_concentration": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "token_unlock": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "beta": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "mtf_divergence": {
          "status": "CLEAR"
        },
        "volume_confirmation": {
          "status": "UNCONFIRMED",
          "detail": "4H volume 0.48x avg \u2014 below average."
        },
        "data_completeness": {
          "status": "FULL"
        },
        "overall_risk": "MODERATE"
      },
      "market_snapshot": {
        "market_cap_usd": null,
        "market_cap_rank": null,
        "fdv_usd": null,
        "total_volume_usd": null,
        "circulating_supply": null,
        "max_supply": null,
        "ath_usd": null,
        "ath_change_pct": null,
        "atl_usd": null,
        "change_24h_pct": null,
        "change_7d_pct": null,
        "change_30d_pct": null,
        "volume_mcap_ratio": null
      },
      "confluence": {
        "bullish_factors": [
          {
            "label": "Price > EMA200",
            "points": 20.0,
            "origin": "MTF/4H"
          },
          {
            "label": "Price > EMA200",
            "points": 20.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1H"
          },
          {
            "label": "RSI 40-60 healthy",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1D"
          },
          {
            "label": "Golden cross",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/4H"
          },
          {
            "label": "RSI 40-60 healthy",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/4H"
          },
          {
            "label": "Golden cross",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1H"
          },
          {
            "label": "RSI 40-60 healthy",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1H"
          },
          {
            "label": "Golden cross",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/15M"
          },
          {
            "label": "RSI 40-60 healthy",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/15M"
          },
          {
            "label": "Funding ~0 (accumulation)",
            "points": 15.0,
            "origin": "Smart-Money"
          }
        ],
        "bearish_factors": [
          {
            "label": "Price < EMA200",
            "points": -20.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1D"
          },
          {
            "label": "Price < EMA200",
            "points": -20.0,
            "origin": "MTF/15M"
          },
          {
            "label": "Death cross",
            "points": -15.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1D"
          },
          {
            "label": "Bid wall / long liq cluster just below",
            "points": -15.0,
            "origin": "Smart-Money"
          },
          {
            "label": "Ichimoku price<cloud (red)",
            "points": -10.0,
            "origin": "MTF/15M"
          },
          {
            "label": "L/S>1.5 flush fuel",
            "points": -10.0,
            "origin": "Smart-Money"
          },
          {
            "label": "TK cross bearish",
            "points": -8.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1D"
          },
          {
            "label": "CMF strong outflow",
            "points": -8.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1D"
          },
          {
            "label": "TK cross bearish",
            "points": -8.0,
            "origin": "MTF/1H"
          },
          {
            "label": "TK cross bearish",
            "points": -8.0,
            "origin": "MTF/15M"
          }
        ],
        "bullish_count": 20,
        "bearish_count": 14,
        "net_factors": 6
      },
      "risk_profile": {
        "available": true,
        "volatility_30d_pct": null,
        "sharpe_ratio": 2.3407,
        "sortino_ratio": 5.1259,
        "max_drawdown_pct": null,
        "var_95_pct": null,
        "cvar_95_pct": null,
        "calmar_ratio": 22.0795,
        "beta_vs_btc": 0.3284,
        "correlation_btc": null,
        "risk_category": "medium"
      },
      "watchlist_triggers": {
        "available": true,
        "go_long_if": {
          "trigger": "4H close > $3.0680 on volume \u2265 150% of 20-period avg",
          "level": 3.068,
          "confirms": "trend continuation; targets next R + ATR projection"
        },
        "go_short_if": {
          "trigger": "4H close < $2.9790 on expanding volume",
          "level": 2.979,
          "confirms": "structure breakdown; targets next S + ATR projection"
        },
        "stand_aside_until": "price compresses inside $2.9790\u2013$3.0680 with funding/whale flow alignment",
        "ask_wall": 3.037,
        "bid_wall": 3.01
      },
      "conviction": {
        "score": 35.6,
        "label": "LOW",
        "notes": [
          "timeframes disagree",
          "breakout pending"
        ]
      },
      "catalysts": {
        "days_until_next": null,
        "events": [],
        "has_near_term": false
      },
      "narratives": {
        "wolf": "Bid depth outweighs asks 3.45\u00d7 \u2014 buyers absorbing supply, not chasing. Visible ask wall at 3.0370 acts as magnetic resistance above. Bid wall at 3.0100 is the line the market must hold. Trade pace accelerating 4.94\u00d7 \u2014 conviction is building. Price is below VWAP (3.0233) \u2014 intraday institutional bias leans bearish.",
        "insider": "Funding near neutral (+0.0050%) \u2014 no leveraged distortion, base rate respected. Long/short 2.95 \u2014 crowd is long, reflexive flush risk is real. Whales: 5 buy prints vs 4 sell prints in the 24h window.",
        "verdict": "Regime: VOLATILE. Composite score +4.2. No edge. Do not trade. Capital is a position. 24H expected value +0.06% \u2014 favorable edge. Watch for: volume below average. Trade the plan, respect the invalidation, size for survival."
      }
    },
    "brief_markdown": "# ORACLE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF \u2014 OG Fan Token (OG)\n**Timestamp:** 2026-05-05T14:56:13Z  \n**Signal:** \u26aa **NEUTRAL** \u00b7 Score **+4.2/100** \u00b7 EV24H **+0.06%** \u00b7 Conviction **LOW** (35.6/100)  \n**Price:** $3.0217 (Binance: $3.0210 | MEXC: $3.0240 | CoinGecko: $3.0200 | Spread: 0.1324%)  \n**Market Regime:** VOLATILE \u2014 Bollinger squeeze active on 4H \u2014 breakout pending, direction unconfirmed until volume expansion.  \n**Data Completeness:** 100% | Missing: none\n\n---\n\n## THE WOLF'S READ \u2014 Market Microstructure\n> *Order flow, crowd psychology, price action.*\n\nBid depth outweighs asks 3.45\u00d7 \u2014 buyers absorbing supply, not chasing. Visible ask wall at 3.0370 acts as magnetic resistance above. Bid wall at 3.0100 is the line the market must hold. Trade pace accelerating 4.94\u00d7 \u2014 conviction is building. Price is below VWAP (3.0233) \u2014 intraday institutional bias leans bearish.\n\n---\n\n## THE INSIDER'S READ \u2014 Smart Money & Derivatives\n> *What the money is doing, not what it says.*\n\n**Funding Rate:** +0.0050% per period \u2192 longs_paying \u2192 neutral positioning  \n**OI:** $621,882.00  \n**Exchange Flow (24h):** n/a (source unavailable)  \n**Whale Activity:** 5 buys / 4 sells in 24h  \n**Long/Short Ratio:** 2.9463\n\nFunding near neutral (+0.0050%) \u2014 no leveraged distortion, base rate respected. Long/short 2.95 \u2014 crowd is long, reflexive flush risk is real. Whales: 5 buy prints vs 4 sell prints in the 24h window.\n\n---\n\n## THE QUANT'S ANALYSIS \u2014 Multi-Timeframe Signal Engine\n\n### Regime: VOLATILE\n\n| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | BB | Volume | Score |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| 1D | bullish | 53.0 neutral | none | mid | 0.24x | -22.0/100 |\n| 4H | bullish | 53.2 neutral | none | mid | 0.48x | 66.0/100 |\n| 1H | bullish | 48.4 neutral | none | mid | 1.01x | 44.0/100 |\n| 15M | bearish | 45.1 neutral | none | lower half | 1.42x | -1.0/100 |\n\n**Weighted MTF Score: +11.82/100**\n\n**Dominant Pattern:** none \u2014 neutral \u2014 Confidence: n/a%  \n**Divergences Detected:** none  \n**Ichimoku State (4H):** Price inside cloud | Cloud bearish | TK: bullish  \n**ATR (4H):** $0.040733 (1.35% of price) \u2192 SL for conservative: hypothetical long $2.9606 / short $3.0828 (1.5\u00d7ATR)\n\n---\n\n## COMPOSITE SIGNAL SCORECARD\n\n| Engine | Raw Score | Weight | Contribution |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| MTF Technical | +11.82/100 | 40% | +4.73 |\n| Smart Money (DPI+WFI) | +5.00/100 | 25% | +1.25 |\n| Chart Patterns | +0.00/100 | 15% | +0.00 |\n| Sentiment | +0.00/100 | 10% | +0.00 |\n| Macro Adjustment | +0.00/100 | 10% | +0.00 |\n| **Regime Multiplier** | \u00d70.70 | \u2014 | applied |\n| **FINAL SCORE** | **+4.18/100** | \u2014 | **NEUTRAL** |\n\n---\n\n## CONFLUENCE MAP \u2014 What Aligns, What Conflicts\n\n**Bullish factors:** 20 \u00b7 **Bearish factors:** 14 \u00b7 **Net:** +6\n\n| # | Bullish | +pts | Origin | Bearish | \u2212pts | Origin |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | Price > EMA200 | +20.0 | MTF/4H | Price < EMA200 | -20.0 | MTF/1D |\n| 2 | Price > EMA200 | +20.0 | MTF/1H | Price < EMA200 | -20.0 | MTF/15M |\n| 3 | RSI 40-60 healthy | +15.0 | MTF/1D | Death cross | -15.0 | MTF/1D |\n| 4 | Golden cross | +15.0 | MTF/4H | Bid wall / long liq cluster just below | -15.0 | Smart-Money |\n| 5 | RSI 40-60 healthy | +15.0 | MTF/4H | Ichimoku price<cloud (red) | -10.0 | MTF/15M |\n| 6 | Golden cross | +15.0 | MTF/1H | L/S>1.5 flush fuel | -10.0 | Smart-Money |\n| 7 | RSI 40-60 healthy | +15.0 | MTF/1H | TK cross bearish | -8.0 | MTF/1D |\n\n---\n\n## KEY PRICE LEVELS\n\n| Level | Price | Type | Method | Strength |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| R3 | 3.1780 | Resistance | Swing cluster | Low |\n| R2 | 3.1600 | Resistance | Swing cluster | Low |\n| R1 | 3.0680 | Resistance | Swing cluster | High |\n| **NOW** | **$3.0217** | Current | \u2014 | \u2014 |\n| S1 | 2.9790 | Support | Swing cluster | Med |\n| S2 | 2.9500 | Support | Swing cluster | Low |\n| S3 | 2.9160 | Support | Swing cluster | Low |\n| Liquidation Wall (Longs) | $3.0100 | Danger | Order book | High |\n| Liquidation Wall (Shorts) | $3.0370 | Magnet | Order book | High |\n\n---\n\n## TRADE EXECUTION PLAN\n\n**Direction:** FLAT  \n**Setup Quality:** No Trade  \n**Expected Value (24H):** +0.06% \u2192 favorable edge\n\n> *No edge right now. Track these conditional triggers; do not pre-empt them.*\n\n| Bias Flip | Trigger | Confirms |\n|---|---|---|\n| **GO LONG** | 4H close > $3.0680 on volume \u2265 150% of 20-period avg | trend continuation; targets next R + ATR projection |\n| **GO SHORT** | 4H close < $2.9790 on expanding volume | structure breakdown; targets next S + ATR projection |\n| **STAND ASIDE** | price compresses inside $2.9790\u2013$3.0680 with funding/whale flow alignment | preserve capital |\n\n*Trade tiers, Kelly sizing, and invalidation are intentionally blank \u2014 they activate only when a directional signal fires.*\n\n---\n\n## PRICE PREDICTION\n\n| Scenario | Probability | 24H Target | 7D Target | Trigger |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Bull | 23.7% | $3.0680 (+1.53%) | $3.1600 (+4.58%) | Close > 3.0680 on 4H with volume >150% of 20-period average |\n| Base Case | 54.6% | $2.9911\u2013$3.0522 | $2.9402\u2013$3.1031 | Structure continuation without catalyst \u2014 oscillation between nearest S/R |\n| Bear | 21.8% | $2.9790 (-1.41%) | $2.9500 (-2.37%) | Close < 2.9790 on 4H on expanding volume |\n\n**24H Expected Value: +0.06%** \u2014 favorable edge\n\n---\n\n## RISK PROFILE \u2014 Statistical\n\n| Metric | Value | Metric | Value |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| 30d Volatility | n/a | Risk Category | medium |\n| Sharpe Ratio | 2.34 | Sortino Ratio | 5.13 |\n| Max Drawdown | n/a | Calmar Ratio | 22.08 |\n| VaR 95% (1d) | n/a | CVaR 95% | n/a |\n| Beta vs BTC | 0.33 | Correlation BTC | n/a |\n\n---\n\n## RISK AUDIT\n\n- **Funding rate crowding:** CLEAR\n- **Liquidity:** CLEAR\n- **Whale concentration:** CLEAR\n- **Token unlock pressure:** CLEAR\n- **Beta / BTC amplification:** CLEAR\n- **MTF divergence:** CLEAR\n- **Volume confirmation:** UNCONFIRMED \u2014 4H volume 0.48x avg \u2014 below average.\n- **Data completeness:** FULL\n\n**Overall Risk Rating:** MODERATE\n\n---\n\n## ORACLE'S VERDICT\n\n\u26aa **NEUTRAL** \u00b7 Conviction **LOW** (35.6/100) \u00b7 Risk: **MODERATE**\n\nRegime: VOLATILE. Composite score +4.2. No edge. Do not trade. Capital is a position. 24H expected value +0.06% \u2014 favorable edge. Watch for: volume below average. Trade the plan, respect the invalidation, size for survival.\n\n*Conviction drivers:* timeframes disagree, breakout pending.\n\n**Watch Levels:**\n- Bullish trigger: **$3.0680** (4H close + volume)\n- Bearish trigger: **$2.9790** (4H close + volume)\n- Magnetic ask wall: **$3.0370**\n- Defended bid wall: **$3.0100**\n\n---\n\n*This analysis is generated from quantitative algorithms and market data. It is educational intelligence, not financial advice. Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic. Manage your risk. Size your positions. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.*"
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "sources_used": [
      "binance",
      "coingecko",
      "cmc"
    ],
    "sources_failed": [],
    "confidence": "high"
  }
}