added analysis

Author: potvik

docs/vfat_analysis.md

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+
+# VFAT Position Analysis: Pools, Impermanent Loss, Profitability, Strategies
+
+---
+
+## 1. Pools Analyzed
+
+Analysis was conducted across VFAT's top pools:
+
+- **wS/USDC.e** — 14,076 positions
+- **wS/stS** — 3,074 positions
+- **wS/WETH** — 2,820 positions
+- **SHADOW/stS** — 2,240 positions
+- **USDC.e/WETH** — 879 positions
+- **USDC.e/USDT** — 607 positions
+- **USDC.e/scUSD** — 211 positions
+- **WBTC/WETH** — 137 positions
+
+These are the most active pools by number of positions on VFAT.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Impermanent Loss: How Dangerous It Is
+
+- In 50% of all positions, impermanent loss = 0%.
+- The average impermanent loss across the dataset ≈ 15.6% (distorted by rare catastrophic cases).
+- Main risks observed in:
+  - **wS/stS** — many cases of 100% impermanent loss.
+  - **USDC.e/WETH** — several critical cases.
+  - Partially — **wS/USDC.e**.
+- Reason: auto-rebalance strategies on very short timeframes (<2 hours).
+
+Other pools generally show stable behavior.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Most Profitable and Stable Pools
+
+Average **APR (30d)** by pool:
+
+- **SHADOW/stS** — 19.4% (high APR but volatile)
+- **wS/WETH** — 5.92% (stable and profitable)
+- **USDC.e/WETH** — 5.69% (balanced profitability)
+- **WBTC/WETH** — 5.66% (solid performance)
+- **USDC.e/scUSD** — 2.94% (stable, stablecoin pair)
+- **wS/stS** — 0.66% (low APR, high impermanent loss risk)
+- **USDC.e/USDT** — 0.26% (very low profitability)
+- **wS/USDC.e** — 0% (no meaningful profitability recorded)
+
+⚡ **Most stable pools:** **wS/WETH**, **USDC.e/WETH**, **WBTC/WETH**.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Auto-Rebalance vs Non-Rebalance
+
+|                               | With Auto-Rebalance | Without Auto-Rebalance |
+|-------------------------------|---------------------|-------------------------|
+| Number of Positions           | 19,628               | 4,416                   |
+| Average APR (30d)              | 2.07%                | 6.36%                   |
+| Average Impermanent Loss (%)   | 0.16%                | 0.14%                   |
+
+**Conclusion:**  
+Across all pools, **positions without auto-rebalance achieve 3x higher APR**.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Best Strategy Settings
+
+For auto-rebalance strategies:
+
+- Best cutoff: **~887272**
+- Best buffer: **50–100 ticks**
+
+These settings provide the best profitability.  
+Too large or negative buffers significantly reduce performance.
+
+---
+
+## 6. How VFAT Positions Are Configured
+
+Grouped all VFAT position-settings by **cutoff** and **buffer**:
+
+- Most strategies **monitor the entire Uniswap price range** without restrictions (`cutoff ≈ 887272`).
+- Very often, **zero buffer** and **auto-rebalance** are enabled.
+
+Meaning:
+- The system **reacts instantly** when the price moves out of range.
+- This leads to frequent rebalances and higher risks of impermanent loss during sudden market moves.
+
+---
+
+## Final Summary
+
+- Most stable pools: **wS/WETH**, **USDC.e/WETH**, **WBTC/WETH**.
+- Highest impermanent loss risks: **wS/stS**, partly **USDC.e/WETH**.
+- **Non-auto-rebalance** strategies are significantly more profitable.
+- Best auto-rebalance settings: **cutoff ~887272**, **buffer 50–100**.
+- Current VFAT strategies are very sensitive to price movements due to lack of buffer.
+
+Fine-tuning strategy settings can greatly improve overall profitability and stability.