run_ecosystem_study.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Run the ecosystem lifecycle privacy study.

Simulates the full lifecycle (Silent Payments funding -> CoinJoin -> on-chain and
Lightning spending) for each CoinJoin protocol against the six-observer adversary
set, and measures the realized anonymity each protocol delivers across the
lifecycle, under single observers and worst-case collusion.

Outputs ``ecosystem_study_results.json`` for the website build.
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import json
import time
from pathlib import Path

from coinjoin_simulator.ecosystem.study import build_ecosystem_study

OUTPUT_PATH = Path("ecosystem_study_results.json")


def main() -> None:
    start = time.time()
    print("Building ecosystem lifecycle privacy study...")
    study = build_ecosystem_study(n_users=30, maker_pool_size=50, seed=0)
    payload = study.to_dict()
    payload["generated_at"] = time.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ", time.gmtime())

    OUTPUT_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2) + "\n")
    elapsed = time.time() - start
    print(f"\nWrote {OUTPUT_PATH} in {elapsed:.2f}s\n")

    print("Realized mixed-coin anonymity set across the lifecycle:")
    print(
        f"  {'protocol':<32} {'passive':>8} {'spend-CP':>9} "
        f"{'collude':>8} {'deanon':>7}"
    )
    for h in payload["headline"]:
        print(
            f"  {h['label'][:32]:<32} {h['passive_mixed']:>8.1f} "
            f"{h['spend_cp_mixed']:>9.1f} {h['collude_worst']:>8.1f} "
            f"{h['collude_mixed_deanon_pct']:>6.0f}%"
        )

    print("\nSybil sensitivity (JoinMarket+fee-quant, co-participant attack):")
    for r in payload["sybil_sensitivity"]:
        if r["protocol"] == "joinmarket_feequant":
            print(
                f"  Sybil {r['sybil_fraction']:.0%} of makers -> "
                f"mixed set {r['mixed_effective_set']:.1f} "
                f"({r['mixed_deanon_fraction']:.0%} deanonymized)"
            )

    print("\nThe core finding: under full collusion (funding payer + passive +")
    print("spend counterparty + Lightning), every protocol's worst lifecycle")
    print("stage collapses. On-chain CoinJoin alone does not deliver durable")
    print("privacy; the funding anchor and the spend leak dominate.")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()