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[e2e] Test Failing with error: Machine count does not match existing nodes count #13150

@peppi-lotta

Description

@peppi-lotta

Which jobs are flaking?

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-main: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.9=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-release-1-11: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.8=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-release-1-10: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.8=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-release-1-10: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.9=>current) on K8S latest ci mgmt cluster [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

Which tests are flaking?

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-main: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.9=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-release-1-11: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.8=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-release-1-10: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.8=>current) [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-release-1-10: capi-e2e [It] When testing clusterctl upgrades using ClusterClass (v1.9=>current) on K8S latest ci mgmt cluster [ClusterClass] Should create a management cluster and then upgrade all the providers [ClusterClass]

Since when has it been flaking?

Since 6th Dec 2025
https://storage.googleapis.com/k8s-triage/index.html?text=Machine%20count%20does%20not%20match%20existing%20nodes%20count&job=.*cluster-api.*(test%7Ce2e)-(mink8s-)*&xjob=.*-provider-.*#e7be1fa5461b254b6e82

Testgrid link

No response

Reason for failure (if possible)

Timed out after 300.001s.
Timed out waiting for Machine Deployment clusterctl-upgrade/clusterctl-upgrade-workload-kdcch4-md-0-btv77 to have 2 replicas
The function passed to Eventually returned the following error:
    <*errors.fundamental | 0xc000b1a8a0>: 
    Machine count does not match existing nodes count
    {
        msg: "Machine count does not match existing nodes count",
        stack: [0x22037ac, 0x503306, 0x502419, 0x9860df, 0x987182, 0x9846a5, 0x22031cf, 0x26934c9, 0x960113, 0x975513, 0x484341],
    }
At one point, however, the function did return successfully.
Yet, Eventually failed because the matcher was not satisfied:
Expected
    <int>: 1
to equal
    <int>: 2
[FAILED] Timed out after 300.001s.
Timed out waiting for Machine Deployment clusterctl-upgrade/clusterctl-upgrade-workload-kdcch4-md-0-btv77 to have 2 replicas
The function passed to Eventually returned the following error:
    <*errors.fundamental | 0xc000b1a8a0>: 
    Machine count does not match existing nodes count
    {
        msg: "Machine count does not match existing nodes count",
        stack: [0x22037ac, 0x503306, 0x502419, 0x9860df, 0x987182, 0x9846a5, 0x22031cf, 0x26934c9, 0x960113, 0x975513, 0x484341],
    }
At one point, however, the function did return successfully.
Yet, Eventually failed because the matcher was not satisfied:
Expected
    <int>: 1
to equal
    <int>: 2
In [It] at: /home/prow/go/src/sigs.k8s.io/cluster-api/test/framework/machinedeployment_helpers.go:776 @ 12/15/25 14:49:53.267

Anything else we need to know?

Seems clusterctl upgrade test from version 1.8 and 1.9 to current is flaking. Does this require any action when the versions are this old?

Label(s) to be applied

/kind flake
One or more /area label. See https://github.com/kubernetes-sigs/cluster-api/labels?q=area for the list of labels.

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    kind/flakeCategorizes issue or PR as related to a flaky test.needs-priorityIndicates an issue lacks a `priority/foo` label and requires one.needs-triageIndicates an issue or PR lacks a `triage/foo` label and requires one.

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