The page at https://skaters.microprediction.org/timesfm.html currently concludes that TimesFM (2.5, 200M) only beats Laplace on degenerate repeated-value series, and that Laplace wins 69/69 on likelihood over the continuous split with a 2.26-nat median gap.
Foundation models improve quickly and this verdict should not be assumed durable. Re-run benchmarks/foundation_study.py when any of these change:
- a new TimesFM checkpoint or size (2.5 → next)
- native density or improved quantile heads (the LL comparison is currently read through quantile reconstruction)
- long-context variants (only 256 tested)
- the unrun cells: MAE of the median, the levels protocol
The page promises to be updated if any rerun says otherwise.
🤖 Generated with Claude Code
The page at https://skaters.microprediction.org/timesfm.html currently concludes that TimesFM (2.5, 200M) only beats Laplace on degenerate repeated-value series, and that Laplace wins 69/69 on likelihood over the continuous split with a 2.26-nat median gap.
Foundation models improve quickly and this verdict should not be assumed durable. Re-run
benchmarks/foundation_study.pywhen any of these change:The page promises to be updated if any rerun says otherwise.
🤖 Generated with Claude Code