Merge pull request #19853 from newrelic/predictive-alert

[Draft for feb release]feat: Predictive alerts for PP

Author: cbehera-newrelic

src/content/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions.mdx

@@ -229,6 +229,32 @@ For all methods except for our guided mode, the process for creating an alert co
         Unlike anomaly thresholds, a static threshold doesn't look at your data set as a whole and determines what behavior is unusual based on your system's history. Instead, a static threshold will open an incident whenever your system behaves differently than the criteria that you set.
 
         You need to set the priority level for both anomaly and static thresholds.  See the section above for more details.
+      </Collapser>
+
+            <Collapser
+        id="predict-alert"
+        title="Predictive capability with Static thresholds (Available in public preview)"
+      >
+          <Callout title="preview">
+          We're still working on this feature, but we'd love for you to try it out!
+
+          This feature is currently provided as part of a preview program pursuant to our [pre-release policies](/docs/licenses/license-information/referenced-policies/new-relic-pre-release-policy).
+        </Callout>
+
+        The <DNT>**Predictive capability**</DNT> in New Relic uses historical data to build models that predict breaches of static thresholds. You can set how far into the future to predict. If a breach is anticipated, a predictive alert event triggers, allowing you to act before disruptions occur.
+
+        To enable the predictive capability:
+
+        1. In the <DNT>**Set condition thresholds**</DNT> section, select the threshold condition type as<DNT>**Static**</DNT>.
+        2. For the predictive capability, enable the <DNT>**Predict future behavior**</DNT> toggle.
+        3. Set the look-ahead time to predict how far into the future the threshold might be breached. The maximum look-ahead time is 360 times the [window duration](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#window-duration).
+        4. Set the predicted alert event behavior, when the actual signal crosses the threshold.
+            * Close the predicted alert and open an actual alert.
+            * Keep the predicted alert open to reduce noise.
+
+        To learn more about the predictive capability, refer our [documentation](/docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/predictive-alerts).
+
+
       </Collapser>
 
       <Collapser

src/content/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/create-nrql-alert-conditions.mdx

@@ -196,6 +196,18 @@ Some elements of NRQL used in charts don't make sense in the context of streamin
       </td>
     </tr>
 
+    <tr>
+      <td>
+        `PREDICT`
+      </td>
+
+      <td>
+        In NRQL queries, the `PREDICT` clause forecasts the expected behavior of a time series over a specified future period.
+
+        If you are configuring an NRQL condition with a static threshold, the equivalent property to the `PREDICT` clause is the <DNT>**Predict future behavior**</DNT> toggle under the <DNT>**Set condition thresholds**</DNT> section.
+      </td>
+    </tr>    
+
     <tr>
       <td>
         `histogram()`

src/content/docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/predictive-alerts.mdx

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+---
+title: Predictive capability
+tags:
+  - Alerts
+  - Alert conditions
+  - Predictive alerts
+  - Predictive threshold
+translate:
+  - jp
+metaDescription: 'Set predictive threshold on your chart.'
+redirects:
+
+freshnessValidatedDate: never
+---
+<Callout title="preview">
+  We're still working on this feature, but we'd love for you to try it out!
+
+  This feature is currently provided as part of a preview program pursuant to our [pre-release policies](/docs/licenses/license-information/referenced-policies/new-relic-pre-release-policy).
+</Callout>
+
+<DNT>**Predictive Alerts**</DNT> in New Relic uses historical data to build models that predict when a static threshold is going to be breached. You can specify how far into the future you want to predict, providing flexibility in your alerting strategy. When a value is predicted to reach the static threshold within the future window you have set, a predictive alert event triggers with the event title prefix <DNT>**Prediction:**</DNT>, allowing you to take corrective measures before potential disruptions occur.
+
+<Callout variant="tip">
+  New Relic currently uses the [Holt-Winters model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing#Triple_exponential_smoothing_(Holt_Winters)) for predicting, which supports hourly, daily, and weekly seasonal patterns and trends in your data.
+</Callout>
+
+To enable <DNT>**Predictive Alerts**</DNT>, enable <DNT>**[NRQL Predictions](/docs/query-your-data/explore-query-data/use-charts/nrql-predictions)**</DNT> (Now in public preview), which provides the query functionality required for evaluation of predictive thresholds. The <DNT>**NRQL Predictions**</DNT> and <DNT>**Predictive Alerts**</DNT> features are available only to **[Advanced Compute](https://newrelic.com/pricing/compute#pricing_plan-compute)** customers. To enroll, navigate to <DNT>**[one.newrelic.com > Administration](https://one.newrelic.com//admin-portal) > Preview & Trials**</DNT>, and enable <DNT>**NRQL Predictions**</DNT> and <DNT>**Predictive Alerts**</DNT> features.
+
+## Set predictive threshold for an alert condition [#set-predictive-threshold]
+To set or update an alert condition with the predictive capability, follow these steps:
+
+<Steps>
+
+  <Step>
+    ### Edit or set up a new alert condition [#create-alert-condition]
+
+    #### To edit an existing alert condition:
+    1. Select an alert condition from <DNT>**[one.newrelic.com > All capabilities](https://one.newrelic.com/all-capabilities) > Alerts > Alert Conditions**</DNT>, and edit the <DNT>**Signal behavior**</DNT>.
+    2. From the <DNT>**Signal behavior**</DNT> section, click <DNT>**Edit**</DNT>. The <DNT>**Set thresholds**</DNT> page opens.
+
+
+    
+    #### To set up a new alert condition:
+    1. Go to <DNT>**[one.newrelic.com > All capabilities](https://one.newrelic.com/all-capabilities) > Alerts > Alert Conditions**</DNT>.
+    2. Click <DNT>**+ New alert condition > Use guided mode**</DNT>. You can also write a NRQL query to create an alert condition.
+    3. If you are using the guided mode, follow the on-screen instuctions till you are at the <DNT>**Set thresholds**</DNT> section. If you are writing a NRQL query, run the query to get the data on the chart, and click <DNT>**Next**</DNT> to get to the <DNT>**Set thresholds**</DNT> section.
+
+  </Step>
+
+  <Step>
+    ### Set static thresholds [#set-static-thresholds]
+
+  Under the <DNT>**Set condition thresholds**</DNT> section of the <DNT>**Set thresholds**</DNT> page, set a static threshold as follows:
+      1. Select <DNT>**Static**</DNT>.
+      2. Select severity level for the alert condition.
+      3. Set the threshold value.
+
+  </Step>
+
+  <Step>
+    ### Set predictive threshold [#set-predictive-threshold]
+  
+    1. Under <DNT>**Set condition thresholds**</DNT> section, enable the <DNT>**Predict future behavior**</DNT> toggle.
+    2. Set a look-ahead time for the predictive threshold. This is how far you want to look into the future to predict the threshold breach.
+        * **Minimum look-ahead time**: Two times of the [window duration](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#window-duration).
+        * **Maximum look-ahead time**: 360 times of the [window duration](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#window-duration).
+        <Callout variant="tip">
+        To look further ahead into the future, you can increase the [window duration](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#window-duration). 
+        </Callout>
+        <Callout variant="tip">
+        When the window duration is set to 1 minute, the model utilizes historical data from the past 2.5 days to generate predictions. To increase the span of the historical data for model processing, you can increase the [window duration](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#window-duration).
+        </Callout>        
+        
+    3. Set the predicted alert event behavior, when the actual signal crosses the threshold.
+        * Close predicted alert event and open an actual alert event (recommended).
+        * Continue to keep the predicted alert event open.
+
+   <img
+     title="predictive-alerts"
+     alt="predictive-alerts"
+     src="/images/predictive-alerts.webp"
+   />
+
+    <figcaption>
+  <DNT>**[one.newrelic.com > All capabilities](https://one.newrelic.com/all-capabilities) > Alerts > Alert Conditions**</DNT>: Predict future behavior.
+</figcaption>
+
+<Callout variant="tip">
+  By selecting the <DNT>**Close predicted alert event and open one for the occurring event.**</DNT> option, you can distinguish between predicted and actual alert events.
+</Callout>
+
+
+  </Step>
+
+    <Step>
+    ### Save conditions [#save-conditions]
+    Refer [Add alert condition details](/docs/alerts/create-alert/create-alert-condition/alert-conditions/#add-details) to complete the alert condition setup, and then save it.
+
+  </Step>
+
+</Steps>
+
+## Post-promotion behavior  [#post-promotion-behavior]
+As the Predictive capability feature is in public preview, it is available for a limited promotion period. After this period ends, the following changes occur in alerts:
+* Predictive alert events are no longer available in the UI.
+* Alert conditions are re-registered with only the static portion of the threshold. This re-registration resets the aggregation window, potentially delaying alert detection if a condition's threshold is breached during the process.

src/content/docs/alerts/overview.mdx

@@ -46,8 +46,9 @@ With alerts, you can:
 * Organize alerts through [tagging](/docs/new-relic-solutions/new-relic-one/core-concepts/use-tags-help-organize-find-your-data/#query-tags).
 * Identify [anomalies](/docs/alerts-applied-intelligence/applied-intelligence/anomaly-detection/anomaly-detection-applied-intelligence/) before they become broader issues.
 * Route issues to the correct system or team using [notifications](/docs/alerts-applied-intelligence/notifications/intro-notifications/).
+* Enable the <DNT>[Predictive capability](/docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/predictive-alerts)</DNT> to anticipate and respond proactively to possible threshold breaches in the future. (Available with the public preview of Predictive Alerts).
 
-New Relic alerts allows you to:
+New Relic alerts allow you to:
 
 * [Enrich](/docs/alerts-applied-intelligence/applied-intelligence/incident-workflows/incident-workflows/#enrichments) your issue's notifications with additional New Relic data.
 * Normalize your data, group related incidents, and establish relationships between them.

src/nav/alerts.yml

@@ -36,6 +36,8 @@ pages:
             path: /docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/set-thresholds-alert-condition
           - title: Anomaly detection
             path: /docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/anomaly-detection
+          - title: Predictive capability
+            path: /docs/alerts/create-alert/set-thresholds/predictive-alerts
       - title: Add alert condition details
         pages:
           - title: Incident event attributes