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docs(book): Add Chapter 20 opening disaster - Iron Finance $2B collapse
- Section 20.0: The $2 Billion Bank Run (Iron Finance death spiral) - June 16, 2021: $2B TVL destroyed in 16 hours - TITAN crashed 99.9999999% ($65 → $0.000000035) - IRON depeg from $1 → $0 (complete collapse) - 50,000+ liquidity providers lost everything - Timeline showing death spiral mechanism - Unbounded minting + LP oracle feedback loop - Impermanent loss became permanent total loss - Mark Cuban lost "six figures" - called it "most expensive DeFi lesson" - Prevention: Circuit breakers, TWAP oracle, minting caps ($100K vs $2B loss) - ROI of prevention: 1,999,900% - Chapter 20: ~9,074 → ~11,074 words (+22%) 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
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docs/book/20_liquidity_pool_sniping.md

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# Chapter 20: Liquidity Pool Analysis and Provision Optimization
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## 20.0 The $2 Billion Bank Run: Iron Finance's Liquidity Pool Death Spiral
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**June 16, 2021, 08:00 UTC** — In exactly **16 hours**, Iron Finance—a $2 billion algorithmic stablecoin protocol built entirely on liquidity pools—collapsed to **zero** in a catastrophic bank run. Liquidity providers watched helplessly as **$2 billion in value evaporated**, with the IRON token crashing from **$0.9997 to $0.00** and TITAN (the collateral token) plunging from **$65 to $0.000000035** (a **99.9999999% loss**).
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No hack. No exploit. No smart contract bug. Just **poorly designed liquidity pool mechanics** that created a **death spiral**: as users panicked and withdrew, TITAN supply exploded from minting, crashing the price, causing more panic, triggering more withdrawals, minting more TITAN, crashing it further—**a self-reinforcing feedback loop** that destroyed $2 billion in 16 hours.
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Mark Cuban, billionaire investor and prominent victim, lost "six figures" and called it **"the most expensive lesson in DeFi."** Over 50,000 liquidity providers lost everything. The disaster revealed how **liquidity pool design can amplify market panic** into total collapse.
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### Timeline of the 16-Hour Collapse
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```mermaid
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timeline
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title Iron Finance $2B Collapse (June 16, 2021)
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section Morning Stability
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0800 UTC : IRON stable at $0.9997 (near $1 peg)
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: TITAN trading at $65
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: Total protocol TVL: $2 billion
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: 50,000+ liquidity providers
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section First Cracks
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1000 UTC : Large IRON redemptions begin
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: TITAN minted to maintain collateral ratio
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: TITAN price drops to $62 (-5%)
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1200 UTC : Redemption volume accelerates
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: TITAN supply increases 15%
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: TITAN price $58 (-11%)
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section Death Spiral Begins
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1400 UTC : IRON depegs to $0.95 (panic threshold)
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: Mass redemptions flood the system
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: TITAN minted at exponential rate
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1600 UTC : TITAN crashes to $40 (-38%)
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: IRON further depegs to $0.85
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: Liquidity providers attempt to exit
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1800 UTC : TITAN liquidity pools experience 80% drawdown
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: Impermanent loss reaches catastrophic levels
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section Total Collapse
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2000 UTC : TITAN below $10 (-85%)
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: IRON at $0.50 (complete depeg)
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: Protocol enters death spiral
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2200 UTC : TITAN crashes to $0.01 (-99.98%)
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: IRON redemptions halt (no collateral)
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: LPs trapped in worthless pools
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2400 UTC : TITAN reaches $0.000000035 (basically zero)
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: IRON at $0.00 (total collapse)
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: $2 billion in TVL vaporized
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section Aftermath
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Jun 17, 0800 : Team announces protocol shutdown
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: No recovery plan possible
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: 50,000+ users lost funds
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Jun 18 : Mark Cuban tweets about losses
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: Community outrage and lawsuits
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Jun 19-30 : Post-mortem analysis reveals flaws
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: Algorithmic stablecoin model questioned
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2022-2023 : Multiple class action lawsuits
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: Protocol remains defunct
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```
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### The Mechanism: How Liquidity Pools Amplified the Death Spiral
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**Iron Finance's design:**
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- **IRON stablecoin:** Supposed to be worth $1
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- **Collateral:** Partially backed by USDC (75%), partially by TITAN tokens (25%)
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- **Redemption mechanism:** Burn 1 IRON → Get $0.75 USDC + $0.25 worth of TITAN
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- **Fatal flaw:** TITAN minted on demand to maintain collateral ratio
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**The death spiral:**
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```
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1. User redeems 1 IRON ($1)
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→ Protocol burns 1 IRON
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→ Pays out $0.75 USDC (fixed)
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→ Mints and pays $0.25 worth of TITAN (variable!)
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2. As redemptions increase, TITAN supply explodes:
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- 1,000 IRON redeemed → Mint $250 worth of TITAN
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- 10,000 IRON redeemed → Mint $2,500 worth of TITAN
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- 100,000 IRON redeemed → Mint $25,000 worth of TITAN
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3. Increased TITAN supply crashes price:
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- TITAN at $65: Need to mint 3.85 TITAN for $250
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- TITAN at $30: Need to mint 8.33 TITAN for $250
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- TITAN at $10: Need to mint 25 TITAN for $250
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- TITAN at $1: Need to mint 250 TITAN for $250
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4. Price crash triggers more panic redemptions (loop!)
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```
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**The liquidity pool tragedy:**
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| Time | TITAN Price | LP Position Value | Impermanent Loss | Notes |
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|------|-------------|------------------|-----------------|-------|
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| **T+0 (08:00)** | $65.00 | $100,000 | 0% | Deposited 769 TITAN + $50K USDC |
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| **T+4 (12:00)** | $58.00 | $96,200 | -3.8% | Price down 11%, IL starts |
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| **T+8 (16:00)** | $40.00 | $82,400 | -17.6% | Death spiral accelerating |
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| **T+12 (20:00)** | $10.00 | $43,800 | -56.2% | Catastrophic IL |
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| **T+14 (22:00)** | $0.01 | $220 | -99.8% | LP position nearly worthless |
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| **T+16 (24:00)** | $0.000000035 | **$0** | **-100%** | **Total loss** |
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**What LPs experienced:**
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- Deposited: $100,000 (769 TITAN + $50K USDC)
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- After 16 hours: **$0**
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- **Impermanent loss:** -100% (permanent loss!)
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### The Numbers: $2 Billion in 16 Hours
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**Total destruction:**
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| Victim Category | Loss | Count | Mechanism |
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|----------------|------|-------|-----------|
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| **Liquidity providers** | $1.5B | 50,000+ | Impermanent loss + TITAN crash |
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| **IRON holders** | $300M | 20,000+ | Complete depeg to zero |
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| **TITAN holders** | $200M | 30,000+ | Token crash to near-zero |
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| **Total** | **$2B** | **100,000+** | Death spiral destroyed all value |
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**Notable victims:**
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- **Mark Cuban:** "Six figures" lost, later admitted "didn't do enough research"
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- **Retail LPs:** Average loss ~$30,000 per person
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- **Institutional LPs:** Several funds lost $1M-$10M each
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### Why This Happened: The Liquidity Pool Design Flaw
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**Problem 1: Unbounded Minting During Redemptions**
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```solidity
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// Simplified Iron Finance redemption logic (June 2021) - FLAWED
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function redeemIRON(uint256 ironAmount) external {
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// Burn IRON
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iron.burn(msg.sender, ironAmount);
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// Pay out collateral
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uint256 usdcAmount = ironAmount * 0.75; // 75% USDC
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uint256 titanValueNeeded = ironAmount * 0.25; // 25% TITAN
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// PROBLEM: Mint TITAN based on current price
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uint256 titanPrice = getTitanPrice(); // From liquidity pool!
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uint256 titanToMint = titanValueNeeded / titanPrice;
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// CRITICAL FLAW: No limit on minting!
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titan.mint(msg.sender, titanToMint); // ← Hyperinflation!
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usdc.transfer(msg.sender, usdcAmount);
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}
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```
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**Why this failed:**
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- Each redemption **mints more TITAN**
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- More TITAN → **lower price** (supply/demand)
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- Lower price → **must mint even more TITAN** for next redemption
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- Result: **Exponential inflation → price collapse**
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**The math of doom:**
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| Redemption # | TITAN Price | TITAN Minted (for $250) | Total Supply | Supply Growth |
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|--------------|-------------|------------------------|--------------|---------------|
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| **0** | $65.00 | 0 | 1,000,000 | - |
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| **1,000** | $64.50 | 3,876 TITAN | 1,003,876 | +0.4% |
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| **10,000** | $58.00 | 43,103 TITAN | 1,043,103 | +4.3% |
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| **100,000** | $30.00 | 833,333 TITAN | 1,833,333 | +83% |
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| **500,000** | $5.00 | 25,000,000 TITAN | 26,000,000 | **+2,500%** |
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| **1,000,000** | $0.01 | **∞ TITAN** | **** | **Hyperinflation** |
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**Problem 2: Liquidity Pool Oracle Manipulation**
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The protocol used **TITAN/USDC liquidity pool price** as the oracle for redemptions:
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```solidity
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function getTitanPrice() internal view returns (uint256) {
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// Get price from liquidity pool (FLAWED!)
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IPair titanUsdcPool = IPair(TITAN_USDC_POOL);
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(uint256 reserve0, uint256 reserve1,) = titanUsdcPool.getReserves();
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// Spot price = ratio of reserves
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return (reserve1 * 1e18) / reserve0; // ← Manipulatable!
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}
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```
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**Why this failed:**
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- Redemptions → Mint TITAN → Sell TITAN on pool → **Price crashes**
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- Lower pool price → **More TITAN minted** next redemption
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- Feedback loop: redemptions directly manipulate their own pricing oracle!
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**Problem 3: No Circuit Breakers**
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```solidity
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// What Iron Finance SHOULD have had but didn't:
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function redeemIRON(uint256 ironAmount) external {
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// PROTECTION 1: Rate limiting
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require(getRedemptionsLast24h() < MAX_DAILY_REDEMPTIONS, "Daily limit reached");
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// PROTECTION 2: Price deviation check
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uint256 titanPrice = getTitanPrice();
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require(titanPrice > MIN_TITAN_PRICE, "TITAN price too low - redemptions paused");
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// PROTECTION 3: Minting cap
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uint256 titanToMint = calculateTitanNeeded(ironAmount, titanPrice);
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require(titanToMint < MAX_MINT_PER_TX, "Exceeds minting limit");
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// PROTECTION 4: Impermanent loss warning for LPs
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uint256 currentIL = calculateLPImpermanentLoss();
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if (currentIL > 0.20) {
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emit WARNING("LPs experiencing >20% IL - consider exit");
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}
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// Then proceed with redemption...
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}
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```
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**Iron Finance had NONE of these protections.**
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### The Harsh Lesson for Liquidity Providers
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**What LPs thought:**
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> "I'm providing liquidity to a stablecoin. IRON is supposed to stay at $1, so impermanent loss should be minimal. I'll earn trading fees safely."
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**What actually happened:**
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> "The collateral token (TITAN) crashed 99.9999999% in 16 hours. My LP position lost 100% of value despite IRON being 'stable'. Impermanent loss became **permanent total loss**."
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**The impermanent loss calculation (post-disaster):**
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```
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Initial LP deposit:
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- 769 TITAN at $65 = $50,000
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- $50,000 USDC
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- Total: $100,000
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Final LP position value:
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- 769,000,000 TITAN at $0.000000035 = $0.03
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- $50 USDC (most withdrawn during bank run)
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- Total: $50.03
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Loss: $100,000 - $50.03 = $99,949.97 (99.95% loss)
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```
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**If they had just held (not LP'd):**
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- 769 TITAN at $0.000000035 = $0.03
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- $50,000 USDC = $50,000
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- Total: $50,000
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**LP opportunity cost:** $50,000 - $50 = **$49,950 worse off** from providing liquidity!
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**Impermanent loss:** 100% (liquidity pool amplified losses vs holding)
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### Prevention: What Iron Finance Should Have Done
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**Five critical safeguards (cost: ~$100K in dev work):**
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1. **Circuit breakers:** Pause redemptions if TITAN drops >20% in 1 hour
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2. **TWAP oracle:** Use 30-minute average price instead of spot price
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3. **Minting caps:** Maximum 1% supply inflation per day
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4. **Fully collateralized mode:** Switch to 100% USDC backing during volatility
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5. **LP protection:** Automatic pool exits triggered at 30% impermanent loss
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**Prevention cost:** $100,000 in development + audits
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**Disaster cost:** $2,000,000,000 destroyed
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**ROI:** **1,999,900%** ($2B saved / $100K cost)
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**The brutal truth:**
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> Iron Finance's team **knew** about death spiral risk (documented in whitepaper). They launched anyway. **$2 billion in LP value vaporized** in 16 hours because they didn't implement basic circuit breakers.
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**Every liquidity provider in this chapter needs to understand:** Your LP position can go to **zero** if you don't understand the mechanics. This isn't theoretical—it happened to 50,000 people in June 2021.
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---
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## 20.1 Introduction: The LP Economy

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