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docs(book): Expand Chapter 12 Options Pricing with disaster-driven pedagogy
- Expanded from 6,311 to 10,514 words (4,203 words added, 67% growth)
- Added 540 lines of content and production code
NEW OPENING:
- LTCM August 1998 short volatility disaster ($550M single day, $4.6B total)
- Mermaid timeline of collapse (Aug 17-Sep 25, 1998)
- Lesson: Selling volatility = selling insurance (95% works, 5% catastrophic)
NEW SECTION 12.8: Volatility Trading Disasters (~2,500 words)
- 12.8.1: GameStop gamma squeeze (Jan 2021)
* Melvin Capital -53%, market makers billions in losses
* Gamma feedback loop mechanics
* Lesson: Gamma explodes near expiration (especially 0DTE)
- 12.8.2: Volatility crush (retail trader killer)
* NVDA earnings example: right direction, still lost 53%
* Vega losses > Delta gains when IV elevated
* Prevention: Don't buy when IV > 80th percentile
- 12.8.3: XIV collapse (Feb 2018)
* $2B ETN → $0 in 24 hours
* Leveraged short vol guaranteed blowup
* VIX spike 17 → 37 in 15 minutes
- 12.8.4: Disaster patterns table
* Short vol blowups every 5-10 years (-50% to -100%)
* Gamma squeezes 1-2 per year (-20% to -50%)
* IV crush every quarter (-30% to -70%)
NEW SECTION 12.9: Production Risk Management (~1,200 words, 200 lines OVSM)
- Complete Greeks calculator (delta, gamma, vega, theta, rho)
- Pre-trade validation with limits:
* Vega: 50k per position, 200k portfolio
* Gamma: 5k per position, 15k portfolio
* Theta: -$500/day max
- Stress testing framework (+/- 20% stock, +/- 10 vol)
- Cost: $0-300/month | Benefit: Avoided -$4.6B (LTCM), -$2B (XIV)
NEW SECTION 12.10: Summary and Key Takeaways (~800 words)
- What works: Delta-neutral vol trading, Greeks limits, stress testing
- What fails: Unlimited vega (LTCM), ignoring gamma (GameStop), buying high IV
- Disaster prevention checklist (7 items, all $0-300/month to implement)
- Realistic 2024 expectations (Sharpe 0.8-1.5 vs. 2.0 naive)
NEW SECTION 12.11: Exercises (~200 words)
- Prove theta/gamma relationship
- Implement Newton-Raphson IV solver
- Simulate GameStop gamma squeeze
- Stress test LTCM 1998 scenario
NEW SECTION 12.12: References (Expanded)
- Added LTCM books (Lowenstein 2000)
- Added Taleb 1997 (predicted LTCM-style failures)
- Added vol trading practitioners (Gatheral, Sinclair)
DIAGRAMS ADDED:
- LTCM August 1998 timeline (detailed collapse chronology)
- GameStop January 2021 timeline (gamma squeeze mechanics)
PEDAGOGICAL APPROACH:
- Disaster-driven learning (LTCM, GameStop, XIV, IV crush)
- Production-ready risk management (200 lines OVSM)
- Real examples with numbers (NVDA earnings IV crush)
- Cross-chapter references (Chapter 11 correlation breakdown)
- Evidence-based warnings (prevent retail losses)
KEY THEMES:
- Vega = tail risk (convex, explosive in crises)
- Gamma near expiration kills (0DTE infinite gamma at strike)
- Black-Scholes is language, not truth (use it, don't worship it)
- Selling vol without limits = guaranteed blowup
- Cost to implement all controls: $0-300/month, ROI = ∞ (survival)
STATUS: Chapter 12 production-ready with comprehensive disaster analysis1 parent fa386fe commit c2c5dc6
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