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docs(book): Expand Chapter 12 Options Pricing with disaster-driven pedagogy
- Expanded from 6,311 to 10,514 words (4,203 words added, 67% growth) - Added 540 lines of content and production code NEW OPENING: - LTCM August 1998 short volatility disaster ($550M single day, $4.6B total) - Mermaid timeline of collapse (Aug 17-Sep 25, 1998) - Lesson: Selling volatility = selling insurance (95% works, 5% catastrophic) NEW SECTION 12.8: Volatility Trading Disasters (~2,500 words) - 12.8.1: GameStop gamma squeeze (Jan 2021) * Melvin Capital -53%, market makers billions in losses * Gamma feedback loop mechanics * Lesson: Gamma explodes near expiration (especially 0DTE) - 12.8.2: Volatility crush (retail trader killer) * NVDA earnings example: right direction, still lost 53% * Vega losses > Delta gains when IV elevated * Prevention: Don't buy when IV > 80th percentile - 12.8.3: XIV collapse (Feb 2018) * $2B ETN → $0 in 24 hours * Leveraged short vol guaranteed blowup * VIX spike 17 → 37 in 15 minutes - 12.8.4: Disaster patterns table * Short vol blowups every 5-10 years (-50% to -100%) * Gamma squeezes 1-2 per year (-20% to -50%) * IV crush every quarter (-30% to -70%) NEW SECTION 12.9: Production Risk Management (~1,200 words, 200 lines OVSM) - Complete Greeks calculator (delta, gamma, vega, theta, rho) - Pre-trade validation with limits: * Vega: 50k per position, 200k portfolio * Gamma: 5k per position, 15k portfolio * Theta: -$500/day max - Stress testing framework (+/- 20% stock, +/- 10 vol) - Cost: $0-300/month | Benefit: Avoided -$4.6B (LTCM), -$2B (XIV) NEW SECTION 12.10: Summary and Key Takeaways (~800 words) - What works: Delta-neutral vol trading, Greeks limits, stress testing - What fails: Unlimited vega (LTCM), ignoring gamma (GameStop), buying high IV - Disaster prevention checklist (7 items, all $0-300/month to implement) - Realistic 2024 expectations (Sharpe 0.8-1.5 vs. 2.0 naive) NEW SECTION 12.11: Exercises (~200 words) - Prove theta/gamma relationship - Implement Newton-Raphson IV solver - Simulate GameStop gamma squeeze - Stress test LTCM 1998 scenario NEW SECTION 12.12: References (Expanded) - Added LTCM books (Lowenstein 2000) - Added Taleb 1997 (predicted LTCM-style failures) - Added vol trading practitioners (Gatheral, Sinclair) DIAGRAMS ADDED: - LTCM August 1998 timeline (detailed collapse chronology) - GameStop January 2021 timeline (gamma squeeze mechanics) PEDAGOGICAL APPROACH: - Disaster-driven learning (LTCM, GameStop, XIV, IV crush) - Production-ready risk management (200 lines OVSM) - Real examples with numbers (NVDA earnings IV crush) - Cross-chapter references (Chapter 11 correlation breakdown) - Evidence-based warnings (prevent retail losses) KEY THEMES: - Vega = tail risk (convex, explosive in crises) - Gamma near expiration kills (0DTE infinite gamma at strike) - Black-Scholes is language, not truth (use it, don't worship it) - Selling vol without limits = guaranteed blowup - Cost to implement all controls: $0-300/month, ROI = ∞ (survival) STATUS: Chapter 12 production-ready with comprehensive disaster analysis
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