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docs(book): Complete major expansion of Chapter 11 - Pairs Trading
Chapter 11: Statistical Arbitrage — Pairs Trading - Expanded from 13,831 to 18,696 words (+4,865, +35% growth) Added comprehensive disaster-driven content: Section 11.11: Production Pairs Trading System (NEW, ~500 lines OVSM) - Complete regime detection system (VIX, correlation, credit spreads, liquidity) - Engle-Granger cointegration testing - Half-life calculation for mean reversion analysis - Multi-stage safety validation (sector limits, liquidity checks) - Kalman filter for dynamic hedge ratio updates - Continuous monitoring every 5 minutes - Emergency exit automation - Expected performance: 8-25% annual, Sharpe 1.0-2.0 Section 11.12: Worked Example - PEP/KO Through COVID (NEW) - Complete trade lifecycle (Jan 15 - Mar 11, 2020) - Entry validation: cointegration test, half-life = 8.3 days - Position: Long 1,091 PEP, Short 2,577 KO, 3x leverage - Emergency exit trigger: VIX >40 + correlation >0.80 (Mar 11) - Final ROI: +9.0% in 56 days (58.7% annualized) - Disaster avoided: $29K (forced liquidation vs emergency exit) - Demonstrates Section 11.10.3 disaster prevention in action Total disaster documentation: $171.7B across 5 major events - Aug 2007 Quant Meltdown: $150B (11.0) - LTCM: $4.6B (11.10.1) - Amaranth: $6.6B (11.10.2) - COVID correlation breakdown: $10B+ (11.10.3) - HFT flash crashes: $500M+ (11.10.4) Prevention cost: $100K total ROI of safety: >100,000% Six universal safety rules documented: 1. Monitor crowding (correlation with peers >0.80 = deleverage) 2. Watch market correlations (>0.80 = exit all pairs) 3. Flight-to-quality detection (VIX >40 OR credit >200bps = exit) 4. Sector concentration limits (30% max per sector) 5. Dynamic leverage (reduce inversely with volatility) 6. Liquidity monitoring (halt if spreads >5x normal) Chapter 11 now follows disaster-driven pattern: ✅ Section 11.0: Opening disaster ✅ Section 11.10: Additional disasters (4 major incidents) ✅ Section 11.11: Production system with safety mechanisms ✅ Section 11.12: Complete worked example ⏳ Section 11.9: Conclusion (can be updated to "What Works/What Fails" format) Current textbook progress: - Part IV (DeFi/MEV): 86,003 words, $10.82B disasters - COMPLETE - Chapter 11 (Pairs Trading): 18,696 words, $171.7B disasters - 95% COMPLETE - Total disasters documented: $182.5B+ 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
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