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docs(book): Complete Chapter 11 Pairs Trading pedagogical expansion
- Expanded from 5,720 to 13,831 words (8,111 words added) - Added 1,955 lines of production-ready OVSM code NEW SECTIONS: - 11.5.3: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameter estimation (~800 words, 150 lines) * AR(1) approximation for discrete-time OU process * Half-life calculation and validation * Complete worked example with GS/MS pair - 11.5.4: Dynamic hedge ratios with Kalman filter (~1,400 words, 240 lines) * State-space formulation for time-varying beta * Predict-update cycle implementation * Static vs. Kalman comparison framework * August 2007 lesson: static betas obsolete in 48 hours - 11.5.5: Complete backtesting framework (~1,500 words, 300 lines) * Walk-forward pair selection (formation/trading periods) * Event-driven execution (avoid look-ahead bias) * 5-component transaction cost model (38 bps reality) * References Chapter 9 methodology - 11.5.6: Production risk management system (~2,200 words, 350 lines) * Multi-layered controls: position limits, stop-losses, circuit breakers * Correlation monitoring (detect regime changes) * VaR calculation, drawdown tracking * Kill switch implementation * August 2007 survivor analysis: Renaissance (-5%), AQR (-13%) vs. failures (-65%) * Cost-benefit: $200/mo → survival ROI = ∞ - 11.6: Summary and key takeaways (~1,500 words) * Evidence-based success factors * Common failure modes with disaster analysis * Realistic 2024 expectations (Sharpe 0.8-1.2 vs. 2.0 historically) * How to avoid disaster list ($155B in preventable losses) - 11.7: Exercises (~400 words) * Mathematical derivations (half-life, optimal thresholds) * Coding projects (Johansen test, HMM regime detection, risk dashboard) * Empirical research (cross-asset analysis, strategy decay) - 11.8: Expanded references (~600 words, 20+ citations) * Gatev et al. (2006), Engle-Granger (1987), Khandani-Lo (2007) * Cointegration theory, OU processes, risk management * ML extensions, industry perspectives - 11.9: Conclusion (~400 words) * Theory vs. implementation gap * August 2007 as survival lesson * Defensive engineering imperative DIAGRAMS ADDED: - Walk-forward backtesting flowchart - Risk management architecture (multi-layer controls) - Kalman filter state machine - Risk-return quadrant chart (position sizing) KEY THEMES: - Disaster-driven learning (August 2007 quant quake throughout) - Production-ready implementations (not toy examples) - Risk management emphasis (cost $0-200/mo, benefit = survival) - Cross-chapter integration (Chapters 8, 9, 10 referenced) - Evidence-based guidance (20+ academic citations) PEDAGOGICAL APPROACH: - 60% explanation, 40% code (established ratio) - WHAT/WHY/HOW function documentation - Real disaster analysis (Aug 2007: Renaissance survived, others lost 65%) - Practical cost-benefit (implement all controls: 20-30 hours, $200/mo) - Realistic expectations (Sharpe 0.8-1.2 in 2024 vs. 2.0 in 1990s) STATUS: Production-ready, comprehensive pairs trading guide
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