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o ‘I\\I!(\llllll\\ll\\tWNIIHUflli\lUWIHl\! I % | onLrTsses
3 4456 03L0O0O4S5 1
M EEE &
Assessment of the Thorium Fuel Cycle
in Power Reactors
P.R. Kasten -
F.dJ. Homan
E. J. Allen K.J. Notz
D. E. Bartine' A. R. Olsen:
W. L. Carter R. H. Rainey
E. H. Gift J. E. Rushton
J. D. Jenkins M. L. Tobias
A. L. Lotts _
. OAKR RIDGE NATIONAL LADORATOEY
CENTRAL RESEARCH LIBRARY
DOCUMENT COLLECTION
LIBRARY LEOAN CORY .
PO NOT TRANSFER TO ANOTHER PERSON
0¥ you wish semeone clée to see this
decuwment, send in neme with decymant
and the librery will erenge @ loan.
&€ ePORW
(@ 267
A
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
(A @\7 UNIONIEARBID EHGORRORATIONEEO RATHEENERGYRRESERR(EH DRVELORMENTRADMINLSYIRATION
Printed in the United States of America. Available from
the Department of Energy
Technical Information Center
P.0. Box 62, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830
Printed Copy AQ4 Microfiche AO1
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the
United States Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor
any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes
any fegat liability or responsibility for any third party’s use or the results of such
use of any information, apparatus, product or process disctosed in this report, or
represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned
rights.
1/9'5/"“5
di
«
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
OPERATED BY
UNION CARBIDE CORPORATION -
NUCLEAR DIVISION
UNION
CARBIDE
POST OFFICE BOX X
OAK RIDGE, TENNESSEE 37830
October 3, 1979
To: Recipients of Subject Report
Report No: ~ ORNL-5565 o Classification: Unclassified:
Author(s):: R. W. Swindeman |
Subject: Analysis of Creep-Rupture Data for Reference Heat
of Type 304 Stainless Steel (25-mm Plate).
The avai]abi]fity notice that appears on the inside front cover
of subject report is incorrect. Please replace with the attached
notice which has been prepared on self-adhesive gummed stock.
We apologize for your inconvenience.
W. N. Drewery, Supéfrvisor
Laboratory Records Department
Information Division
WND:we
Attachment
i /Zw%po
ORNL/TM-5565
Distribution
Category UC-80
Contract No. W—7405-eng—26
ASSESSMENT OF THE THORIUM FUEL CYCLE IN POWER REACTORS
P. R, Kasten
Central Management Offices
. F. J., Homan
A. L. Lotts
A, R, Olsen
Metals and Ceramics Division
E. J. Allen
*J. D. Jenkins
"J. E. Rushton
M. L. Tobias
Engineering Technology Division
.D. E. Bartine
Neutron Physics Division
.W. L. Carter
K. J. Notz
R. H. Rainey
Chemical Technology Division
- E. H. Gift
Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant
Date Published: January 1977
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830
operated by
UNION CARBIDE CORPORATION
for the
ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATIOi
OB
Abstract - . - - - . . - . »®
Summary . . . . 4 0 4 s o4 .
Conclusions . . . .
Recommendations . . .
1. INTRODUCTION . .
2. PRESENTATION OF REPORT .
3. PERFORMANCE OF THORIUM AND URANIUM FUEL CYCLES IN
THERMAL REACTORS .
4. PERFORMANCE OF THE THORIUM AND URANIUM FUEL CYCLES
IN FAST REACTORS . .
.
CONTENTS
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusions . . . .
5.2 Recommendations . .
Appendix A — Physics Considerations .
Appendix B — Thorium Fuel Cycles in LWRs
.
Appendix C — Thorium Fuel Cycles in HTGRs .
Appendix D — Thorium Fuel Cycle in HWRs (CANDU)
Appendix E — Thorium Fuel Cycle in FBRs .
Appendix F — Use of 233y and 238U in Fast Breeder
-
*
»
Reactors ("Denatured" Fuel Cycles) .
Appendix G — Ore and Separative Work Requirements in an
Integrated Nuclear Economy .
Appendix H — Reprocessing Cost Estimates
Appendix I — Fabrication and Refabrication Cost Estimates .
Appendix J — Institutional Considerations .
Appendix K — Studies and Programs Required to
"Americanize'" the CANDU System .
Appendix L — Summary of Calculations and Calculational
Methods .
iii
Page
vii
xii
Appendix M — Qualitative Overview of Recycle Process
Status for Various Reactor Systems .
Appendix N — Power Cost and Ore Utilization Summary .
Appendix 0 — Irradiation Performance of Thorium-
Containing Fuels . . « « « + « « « &
Appendix P — Comments on Fissile Availability for FBR
Economy . . ¢ ¢« o ¢ ¢ o o o o o « o o o
Appendix Q — Considerations Regarding Break-Even
Breeders . « ¢ ¢ « o o ¢ o 4 o o o s o e
iv
P-1
Q-1
Abstract
A study was conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to evaluate
the role of thorium fuel cycles in power reactors. Three thermal reactor
systems were considered: Light Water Reactors (LWRs); High-Temperature
Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs); and Heavy Water Reactors (HWRs) of the
Canadian Deuterium Uranium Reactor (CANDU) type; most of the effort was
on these systems. A summary comparing thorium and uranium fuel cycles in
Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) was also compiled.
Relative to thermal reactors, the results show that better UjOg
utilization is possible using thorium fuel cycles than can be achieved
with uranium cycles. However, thorium cycle use does not change the need
for FBRs so long as significant increases in nuclear power generation are
needed for long times., Commercialization of thorium cycles, including
recycle, would give added flexibility to the U.S. nuclear industry to deal
with any delay in FBR introduction or with commercialization of a low-gain
FBR. Further, thorium fuel cycles under certain circumstances can produce
lower cost power than uranium cycles, particularly at higher U30g prices.
Generally, it appears more desirable economically to recycle plutonium
with thorium rather than with uranium in thermal reactors. However, limi-
tations on the amount of available plutonium would significantly limit
overall improvements in fuel utilization. '
The most direct vehicle in which to take advantage of the improved
fuel utilization capabilities of the thorium fuel cycle are LWRs since
they will be generating most of the nuclear power during the next two
decades. However, the thorium cycle does not appear to compete economically
in present LWRs even at uranium prices over $100/1b. Of the thermal reactors
and under reference conditions of this study, thorium fueled HTGRs and HWRs
have the best fuel utilization performance, while HTGRs offer the best
opportunity for economic use of the thorium cycle. HWR(Th)s have about
the same fuel utilization characteristics as HTGRs, but at a higher power
cost.
In FBRs, thorium or thorium/uranium cycles provide a more negative
void coefficient of reactivity than does the uranium cycle; further,
mixed cycles provide an alternative fuel in the event that a full recycle
plutonium economy is limited. The use of metal fuel provides the best
nuclear performance from thorium cycles, and the superior physical
properties of thorium metal relative to uranium might lead to an economic
FBR with high fuel-utilization characteristics. The use of thorium in
FBRs can provide desirable fuel for both thermal and fast reactors while
increasing the ratio of thermal-to-fast reactors that can be maintained
in an FBR economy.
SUMMARY
A study is made of the role that thorium fuel cycles can have in
power reactors based on present estimates of economic factors, U30g
resources, and nuclear power growth scenarios. In doing this, fuel-
utilization characteristics and power costs are estimated for various
reference reactor types, treating both the uranium and the thorium fuel
cycles to obtain the relative merits of the different systems. Three
thermal reactor types are considered: Light;Water Reactors (LWRs),
High~Temperature Gas—-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs), and Heavy-Water Reactors
(HWRs). For these systems, benefits to be obtained by the introduction
of the thorium fuel cycle are evaluated on the basis of the relative
energy generation from a given U30g resource and on economic performance
as a function of U30g and uranium enrichment costs. Overall economic
benefits or penalties were estimated using a 7.5%/year discount factor.
A summary of the performance of thorium, uranium, and mixed fuel cycles
in Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) is also prepared, with both Liquid-Metal
Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBRs) and Gas—-Cooled Fast Reactors (GCRFs) being
treated.
This study considers that there are no restrictions on either fuel
use or on fuel recycle and also determines the relative economic and
fuel-utilization performance of the thorium and uranium fuel cycles
in the various thermal reactor types. The evaluation criteria are
based primarily on economic performance, although U30g utilization
is also given importance. In determining economic performance, U30g
prices are varied from $25/1b to $300/1b. On the above bases, the use
of the thorium fuel cycle rather than the uranium cycle in thermal
reactors results in better U30g utilization and, in some cases, improved
economic performance. At the same time, if FBRs are introduced on planned
schedules, the use of LWRs and FBRs on the uranium cycle gives better
U30g utilization in a growing economy than does the use of the thorium
cycle in thermal reactors. However, if FBR introduction i1s delayed
gignificantly, the use of thorium fuel cycles is advantageous from a
fuel-utilization viewpoint.
vii
In the above context, the application of the thorium fuel cycle rather
than the uranium cycle is justified on the following bases. In thermal
reactors, the thorium fuel cycle permits: (1) more energy to be extracted
from U30g, thus providing a contingency position if commercial introduction
of the LMFBR is delayed; (2) more economic power generation than that from
LWRs (uranium cycle), particularly at higher U30g prices; (3) a decreased
burden on FBRs relative to early expansion needs when FBRs are first
introducted into the power economy; and (4) a higher ratio of thermal-
to-fast reactors in an established FBR power economy. In fast reactors,
the thorium or mixed thorium/uranium cycle permits: (1) a more negative
void coefficient in the core of the reactor, (2) the use of a "denatured”.
fuel (one in which uranium containing less than 20% fissile is the initial
fissile fuel) in selected reactors, and (3) production of a fuel which
has desirable features for both fast and thermal reactors.
The LWR provides the most direct route for application of the thorium
fuel cycle; however, the urani&m cycle in LWRs is more economic than the
thorium cycle for the reference conditions. Further, the estimated impact
of the LWR(Th) (with 1980 introduction) in improved fuel utilization is
less than that of either the HTGR or HWR (with 1995-2000 introduction);
also, use of the thorium cyéle in LWRs at an early date impacts the
production of Pu for early use in FBRs, while similar use of HTGRs or
HWRs at a later date does not.
Of the thermal reactors investigated, and for the reference evaluation
conditions, only the HTGR is more economic with the thorium cycle than with
the uranium cycle at present nuclear fuel costs. If the uncertainties
regarding commercial introduction of the HTGR in the U.S. can be resolved
favorably, then the HTGR appears to offer the best combination of economics
and fuel utilization performance with the thorium fuel cycle. While HTGRs
probably cannot be commercialized in time to put these advantages to wide
use before about 1995-2000, their impact on improving fuel utilization can
still be significant. The HWR is the next best system for thorium applica-
tion, having about the same fuel utilization characteristics as the HTGR
but higher power costs; again, this reactor type is less commercialized in
the U.S. than the LWR. In fast reactors, thorium or mixed fuel cycles in
viii
LMFBRs appears attractive for obtaining improved void coefficients of
reactivity, for use if metallic fuels are practical, and for use if
"denatured" fuel cycles are mandatory. |
The practical application of the thorium fuel cycle requires the
development of fuel recycle capability. In particular, the lack of
thorium fuel recycle capability has severe economic impacts on LWR(Th)s
and HWR(Th)s. While much technology already exists upon which future
work can be based with regard to fuel recycle development, considerable
effort is still needed relative to providing a practical demonstration
of recycle technology. Demonstration of recycle fuel irradiation
performance is also needed.
With regard to the application of plutonium fueling in thermal
reactors, Pu/Th appears economically attractive relative to Pu/238U;
further, Pu/Th appears economically preferable to 235y/Th fueling if
Pu costs are those associated with recovery from LWR fuel. At thé same
time, the concentration of fissile plutonium in fuel discharged from
natural-uranium HWRs appears to be too low to be economically recovered;
use of an enriched uranium cycle in HWRs changes that situation. Overall,
while Pu/Th fueling in thermal reactors appears economically desirable,
such fueling has only a small influence on improving fuel-utilization
performance, because of limited Pu availability. The primary justifica-
tion for Pu/Th use is an economic one and dependent on Pu price.
Specific unit costs are estimated for fuel fabrication, reprocessing,
refabrication, and associated operations; these are utilized with-
estimates of capital costs and operating and maintenance costs to give
power costs. For Uj30g prices less than approximately $40/1b, the lowest
power costs for thermal reactors are generally calculated when no fuel
recycle takes place, considering all fuel cycles. However, increasing
the U30g price makes fuel recycle the most economic option, and its
application increases the energy extraction from a given U30g resource.
For estimated reactor growth scenarios, thorium cycle use in LWRs
(CR ~ 0.7) provides 12 to 167% more energy, while HTGRs or HWRs (with a
CR v 0.8) provides about 20 to 50% more energy, based on thorium reactors
being introduced commercially on a large scale about 1995-2000. The
increase can be larger if a conversion ratio of 0.9 is employed, and
much larger if break-even breeders are utilized; however, in the HWRs
ix
and HTGRs examined, such high conversion ratios generally lead to
substantially increased fuel inventories as well as high fuel recycle
costs, so that the associated economic performance is unattractive.
Overall, for the reference conditions, economic benefits relative to
LWR(U)s with Pu recycle (and discounted at 7.5%/yr) are greatest for
HTGRs; based on HTGR capital costs being equal to LWR capital costs,
U30g prices of $100/1b, U30g resources of 2.5-3.5 million tons, and
an HTGR conversion ratio of 0.8, benefits are $6.4-21.6 billion.
Corresponding benefits are $1-3.8 billion for HWRs; a penalty is
associated with use of LWR(Th)s. Also, the discounted capital invest-~
ment in separations facilities appears significantly less for LWRs and
HTGRs than for HWRs. The above HTGR benefits do not take into considera-
tion the cost of developing commercial HTGRs. Estimating the cost of
developing HIGRs at $2 billion (undiscounted), an increase in HTGR
capital costs of $95-115/kW(e) cancels the benefits stated above. If
costs for developing HWR(Th)s are $0.5 billion (undiscounted), an increase
in HWR(Th) capital costs of $13-18 kW(e) cancels the HWR(Th) benefits
stated above.
Conclusions
1. Developing of the thorium fuel cycle is justified on the bases
of better U30g utilization, improved potential for long-term economics,
and additional flexibility with regard to fuel recycle alternatives.
Thus, introduction of the thorium fuel cycle provides additional power
generation capability in case of delayed introduction of commercial
FBRs, or in case there is introduction of a low-gain FBR on the reference
schedule.
2. Use of LWR(Th)s rather than LWR(U)s will increase the amount of
energy generated from a given U30g resource by about 20% above the reference
value, considering substitution of thoria for urania in present type LWR
designs. Use of LWR(Th)s beginning in 1995-2000 increases the energy
generation from specified U30g resources by 12*16% }élative to complete
use of LWR(U)s. However, LWR(Th) systems do not appeaf\économic compared
to LWR(U) systems based on present commercial reactor designs even when
\\
the U30g price is $100/1b or more.
3. If the uncertainties regarding commercial introduction of the
HTGR in the U.S. can be resolved favorably, then the HTGR appears to
offer the best combination of economics and fuel utilization with the
thorium fuel cycle. Further, possible future increases in_thermal
efficiency through application of combined cycle HTGRs significantly
increases economic and fuel utilization potential.
4. The HWR(Th) system appears better suited than the LWR(Th)
system for attaining high conversion ratios. However, the capital
component of the HWR power cost appears at least as high as that of
LWRs, exclusive of the HWR requirement for heavy water, such that total
power costs of HWRs appear higher than that of LWRs for U30g prices
less than v$50/1b. A decrease in HWR capital costs appears important
to HWR application in the U.S. At $100/1b U30g, the HWR(Th) system
is more economic than either the LWR(Th) or LWR(U) systems.
5. The use of HTGRs and HWRs with conversion ratios in the 0.8 to 0.9
range increases energy generation from a given U30g resource by 20 to 64%7,
considering the introduction of these reactors by 1995-2000. (Power growth
scenarios utilized in estimating the above considered nuclear power levels
to rise to 400 to 600 GW(e) by the year 2000.)
6. Operation of thermal reactors on Pu/Th fueling appears to be
economically attractive when Pu is recovered from LWRs or enriched-uranium
HWRs. However, the use of Pu/Th fueling does not have a large impact on
fuel-utilization characteristics because of limited Pu availability.
Further, the use of Pu in this manner does not permit Pu to be available
for startup of FBRs. The Pu needs of FBRs under reference introduction
and growth scenarios are such that reserving Pu for FBRs precludes
large-scale use of Pu/Th fuel cycles.
7. The economic application of the thorium cycle in thermal reactors
generally requires the establishment of a fuel recycle industry, particularly
for LWRs and HWRs (fuel recycle is also required for utilizing product
Pu and uranium from the uranium cycle). Without fuel recycle, the thorium
cycle can be used most effectively in HTGRs; however, recycle in HIGRs
is desirable to increase fuel-utilization performance, and is also
economically desirable when U30g costs rise above about $40/1b for the
reference conditions of this study.
xi
8. Converter reactor operation with conversion ratios above about
0.9 does not appear economical; the high fuel recycle costs associated
with low fuel burnups and the high fissile inventory requirements out-
weigh the improvement in fuel utilization achieved.
9. The discounted economic benefits from thorium cycle use in the
various reference-type reactors, and relative to LWR(U)s with Pu recycle,
vary from $1-3.8 billion for HWRs, and from $6.4-21.6 billion for HTGRs,
based on capital charge equality for LWRs, HTGRs and HwRS, economic conver-
tion ratios, estimated power growth scenarios, thorium reactor introduction
by 1995-2000, a U30g price of $100/1b, and U30g resources of 2.5-3.5 million
tons. The use of thorium cycles in reference LWRs does not appear economic
relative to use of LWR(U)s.
10. The HTGR economic benefits given in (9) above are cancelled if
the unit capital costs of HTGRs are increased by $95-115/kW(e) above
those for LWRs; similarly, the HWR economic benefits are cancelled if the
relative HWR capital costs are increased by $13-18/kW(e).
11. Although the nuclear performance of the thorium fuel cycle in
FBRs is generally not as good as the uranium cycle, use of mixed cycles
in FBRs may be satisfactory and/or desirable. Also, use of metallic fuels
might be possible with thorium while not with uranium because of the
superior properties of thorium-based metal relative to uranium alloys.
Use of metallic thorium fuel improves the performance of the thorium fuel
cycle relative to use of oxide fuel; however, safety considerations may
influence the use of metallic fuel.
12. From a safeguards viewpoint, developing a mixed uranium/thorium
fuel cycle permits a "denaturing" of recycle fissile fuels, since 433U
can be diluted with 238y, This flexibility could be important if fuel
feed to certain FBR power stations were limited to ~20% enriched uranium.
\\
Recommendations
Strong support should be given to the thorium~cycle HTGR as the best
contingency reactor in case there is a significant delay in the introduction
of LMFBRs. The emphasis should be placed on commercializing HTGRs and
introducing them on a time schedule such that they can capture a large
share of the nuclear power market by 1995-2000.
xii
In addition to the above, continued studies and evaluations should be
carried out on the LWR(Th) and HWR(Th) systems. Since LWRs are the most
direct vehicle for thorium utilization, LWR(Th) systems should be studied
more thoroughly to be sure the conclusions of this limited study are valid.
Such studies should also evaluate LWR designs based on a more advanced
technology; in the later case, care must be taken to consider the influence
of licensing requirements on design. Relative to heavy water reactors,
HWR(Th)s should be considered for commercial introduction into the U.S.
as a backup to the HTGR. Associated effort should include an evaluation
of the costs and schedules for commercial introduction and licensing of
HWRs, of the capital investments required for D,0 separation plants, and
an assessment of all costs not expected to be borne by industry.
Finally, it should be noted that the above considers no limitations
on fuel use or on fuel recycle other than those associated with economic/
technical factors. .If\limitations on fuel recycle are imposed upon the
nuclear industry because of safeguards considerations, the use of thorium/
uranium mixed cycles in FBRs may be necessary to have a breeder economy,
and could have implications on thermal reactor fuel cycles. This situation
was examined only peripherally in this report; based on the results obtained,
it is recommended that thorium/uranium fuel cycles in FBRs be studied in
detail, along with their possible interactions with thermal reactors.
xiii
1. INTRODUCTION
This report provides the results of a concentrated effort over a
two—-month period to assess the relative economic and fuel-utilization
performance of thorium and uranium fuel cycles in various reactor types.
Under the limited time condtions of this study, it was not possible to
go into the detail that would be desirable. Further, we were dependent
primarily on information which was quickly available to us, such as that
from specific organizations performing work on the concepts of interest
and from open literature publications and meeting presentations. With
regard to LWRs, relatively little detailed information regarding the
performance of the thorium fuel cycle was initially available; reactor
physics information utilized was largely obtained from the open literature,
along with results of independent calculations at ORNL; information was
also obtained from General Electric (ERDA-sponsored study) and from
Combustion Engineering (EPRI-sponsored study). In general, much of the
open literature information on thorium cycles in LWRs appears inconsistent
and optimistic with regard to use of the thorium cycle. The calculations
we performed were generally consistent with the Combustion Engineering
results and provided the basis for our evaluation of the thorium fuel
cycle in LWRs. At the“same time, the detailed analyses performed by GE
indicate that the economic use of Pu with thorium in LWRs is much more
complicated than presented by the relatively simple calculations utilized
in this brief study; such aspects were not considered in this report.
The HWR(Th) and CANDU results are largely based on studies performed
by Canada, as reported by Argonne National Laboratory. Because of their
interest, Canada has studied a wide number of uranium and thorium fuel
cycle cases; as a result, this particular reactor type was studied in
considerable detail relative to the comparative performance of thorium
and uranium fuel cycles.
For the HTGR, results obtained by General Atomic were utilized. ORNL
has been involved in HTGR development for many years and is quite familiar
with this concept and its performance; only those cases and parameter
values which were felt to be significant in evaluating the concept were
presented. No comparison is given between the thorium and uranium fuel
cycles for this reactor type, since with fuel recycle (the case of interest
in this study), the thorium cycle is preferred from both economic and fuel
utilization viewpoints.
Relative to FBRs, general information is based primarily upon open
literature publications; in addition, some detailed, specific calculations
relating to the relative performance of thorium and uranium fuel cycles
in FBRs (LMFBRs and GCFRs) were carried out, with emphasis on the use of
fissile uranium of less than 20% enrichment.
One of the important items influencing the calculated performance
of a given reactor type is the reactor physics analysis of the core.
It shofild be noted that not all of the reactor physics information used
here appears to be of the same quality. Specifically, we have confidence
that the results presented for the physics performance of the HTGR are
of high quality and are fair representations of what can be expected
experimentally. We have less confidence in the reactor physics data
given for the high-conversion-ratio HWR(Th) systems and believe that
the fissile fuel inventories tend to be low at the high conversion
ratios. With regard to the LWR(Th)s, our confidence in the results
was not great during the first part of this study, with the stated
performance considered to be opfiimistic. Since that time we have
modified our results, and more recently we have obtained detailed
information from Combustion Engineering on their comprehensive study
of thorium use in pressurized water reactors; that information largely
confirms the results given in the present report.
The reactor plant capital costs, operating and maintenance costs,
and associated economic bases used in this study are based on what we
believe to be consistent relative values for developed industries,
based on evaluations by others. The estimates of fuel fabrication,
refabrication, and reprocessing costs were based on consistenf
evaluations which we performed during this study, considering specific
flowsheets, processes, and equipment. The resulting economic factors
are termed the "reference" values employed in this study, and on which
the results are based. At the same time, based on past experience,
such reference cost estimates could have significant uncertainties.
The influence of uncertainties in relative costs on the results were
not treated in detail, but a few specific cases were treated.
This report initially contained an evaluation of the Light Water
Breeder Reactor (LWBR) and its prebreeders; however, the LWBR design
available to us did not represent the most recent design concept.
As a result, ERDA-DNRA requested that the LWBR not be included at
this time; they plan to evaluate the updated LWBR design at a future
time. Also, the report does not consider molten-salt reactors. Further,
relative to the reactors treated, only "reference-type" designs were
considered in obtaining the results since these designs have passed
through the licensing process. While designs other than reference can
be considered, a much more detailed study would be required, since
safety considerations would also have to be treated in detail. Specifi-
cally, LWRs could be redesigned to give improved nuclear performance at
the expense of safety margin or by depending upon advances in heat transfer
and fluid flow technology. Such designs were not considered, and no
specific conclusions are reached concerning their economic and fuel-
utilization performance.
An initial draft version of this report was widely distributed during
July and August of 1976 to obtain review comments concerning this study.
The responses obtained have been most helpful and were carefully considered
during the preparation of the present report. As a result, a number of
small technical changes were made; additional discussions have been provided
to make the intent of certain sections more clear, and there have been
changes in the overall presentation to make the report more readable.
We believe this study to be a significant initial effort with
meaningful overall results on which future work can be based; at the
same time, there are considerable uncertainties in important economic
and parameter estimates and in certain '"ground rules." For example,
this study generally assumed that there are no restrictions on fuel use
or on fuel recycle other than those dictated by technical and economic
considerations. Changing that ground rule would drastically alter the
interaction of fuel cycles. Thus, there is a continuing need to factor
in new information as it develops relative to the evaluation of the
role of thorium fuel cycles in power reactors.
2. PRESENTATION OF REPORT
Because of the diverse nature of this study and the limited time
period during which most of the information was developed, compiled, and
written, various topics were treated separately, and these are presented
in the appendices. The report proper makes use of the general results
obtained in the separate studies, although additional evaluations were
also performed. 1In general, the material in the appendices gives more
detailed information concerning the specific subject matter. At the
same time, because the evaluation approaches utilized in the wvarious
appendices are not always the same, differences in detail exist between
the report proper and certain appendices. Sections 3 and 4 below
provide the final evaluations.
The attached appendices provide an information resource concerning
various aspects of this study; a brief description of their content is
given below. |
Appendix A summarizes the reactor physics aspects of thorium fuels
in both thermal and fast neutron spectra. The purpose of this appendix
is to provide perspective relative to the reactor physics features
associated with the use of various fuels in power reactors, since these
features influence the desirability and practicality of thorium fuel
cycles.
Appendices B, C, and D describe detailed studies performed on
thorium fuel cycles in LWRs, HTGRs, and HWRs. The results in Appendix B
are largely based on open literature publications in conjuction with
additional information obtained from various sources; both uranium and
thorium fuel cycles were treated. It was difficult to get a consistent
evaluation of the thorium fuel cycle based on the open literature publi-
cations; Appendix B compares the various results and places them in
perspective. Appendix C summarizes thorium fuel cycles in HIGRs and
the variation in performance associated with various core design features.
Results were largely obtained from General Atomic. Appendix C also treats
the operation of HTGRs as near-breeders, considering prismatic and pebble-
bed type fuel elements. Appendix D summarizes the performance of thorium
fuel cycles in HWRs of the CANDU reactor type, based largely on Canadian
designs., The information in Appendix D determined that the optimum
conversion ratio for the plutonium/thorium fueled concept is about 0.9,
while the optimum conversion ratio for the 235U/Th fueled concept is
about 0.8.
Appendices E and F concern fast breeder reactors; Appendix E
summarizes open literature information on the thorium and uranium fuel
cycles in FBRs. Appendix F provides results on specific calculations
performed relative to the use of 233U/238y in FBRs to examine the feasi-
bility of using uranium containing less than 20% fissile material in
LMFBRs or GCFRs.
Appendix G illustrates ore and separative-work requirements in an
integrated nuclear economy based on estimated reactor parameters and
specified nuclear power growths,
Estimates of the cost of fuel recycle are given in Appendices H and I.
These estimates are based on specific flowsheets, on equipment require-
ments, and on operating requirements, with special emphasis on consistency.
The unit costs for reprocessing various reactor fuels are given in Appendix
H, along with unit costs for fuel shipping and waste storage. Similarly,
Appendix I provides unit cost estimates for fuel fabrication and refabri-
cation. Appendix M gives a qualitative overview of the fuel recycle
process technology required for the various reactor systems, and also
estimates the sequential fuel recycle development costs for the various
reactor types.
Appendix J gives a brief discussion of some of the institutional
considerations associated with the introduction of the thorium fuel
cycle into the nuclear economy; Appendix K summarizes some of the studies
and programs required to "Americanize' the CANDU systems. This latter
appendix considers only R&D requirements and does not include demonstra-
tion programs or those programs that might be required as a result of
licensing studies.
Appendix N summarizes the power costs and ore-utilization performance
of the various thermal reactors, based on information given in Appendices
B, C, and D, and utilizing the calculational methods summarized in Appendix
L. Not all the economic parameters used in this appendix are the same as
given in Sections 3 and 4 below.
Appendices 0, P, and Q give useful additional information in areas
related to this study. Appendix O summarizes the irradiation performance
of thorium-containing fuels for the various reactor types. Appendix P
considers fissile availability in an FBR economy based on a specific
power growth rate in which LWRs are utilized initially. The influence of
HTGR use is also considered. Appendix Q gives an analysis of the HTGR
while operating as a near- or break-even breeder.
The relative performance of the thorium and uranium cyclés in thermal
and fast reactors are evaluated in Sections 3 and 4 below. For the
thermal reactors, the relative fuel-utilization and economic performance
of the two fuel cycles are considered for LWRs, HWRs, and HTGRs, considering
several power growth scenarios and Uz0g resources. In evaluating thermal
reactors, it is implicit that only the thermal reactor component of a
nuclear power industry be considered. So long as fissile material
(assumed to be Pu) is stored for later use in FBRs, it will always be
possible to initiate an FBR industry which can grow with time. For
the fast reactors, nuclear performance is summarized relative to the
use of thorium or uranium fuel cycles; in addition, some consideration
is given to the use of denatured fuel cycles. Section 5 gives the
conclusions and recommendations based on Sections 3 and 4.
3. PERFORMANCE OF THORIUM AND URANIUM FUEL CYCLES
IN THERMAL REACTORS
In evaluating the role of thorium fuel cycles, important criteria
are fuel-utilization and economic performance (including associated
economic benefits or penalties). In this section, the various thermal
reactors considered are assessed with regard to their relative energy
extraction from a given ore resource under various nuclear power growth
scenarios, along with associated power costs, and economic benefits or
penalties relative to a reference power cost. These evaluations also
treat the influence of uranium-ore and separative—-work prices on
power costs as a function of reactor type and fuel cycle operation.
Thermal reactors of the LWR, HWR, and HTGR type and of reference design
are considered here.
Two basic nuclear power growth scenarios are considered; in one,
power capacity growth is maintained at 15 GW(e)/year up to a level of
450 GW. After the power level reaches 450 GW, it is maintained at that
level until it is necessary to reduce the capacity because of limitations
in U30g resources. In the second scenario, nuclear power growth occurs
at 30 GW/year until the capacity reaches a level of 900 GW(e). The
power capacity is maintained at 900 GW(e) until it is necessary to
reduce the level because of limitations in U30g resources,
The power growth scenarios are indicated in Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4.
In all cases, reference-type LWRs, termed LWR;'s, are utilized initially;
after a given time, new reactors are built. The new reactors are either
LWR,'s (same as LWR; but identified differently to clarify results),
LWR(Th)s (LWRs operating on the thorium cycle), HWRs, or HTGRs. For
Scenario I given in Fig. 1, LWR;'s are installed at a rate of 15 GW(e)/
year from 1970 until the year 2000; after that time, they are withdrawn
from use as their 30-year lifetime is attained. The LWR;'s withdrawn
from use are replaced with a second type reactor as indicated above.
As shown in Fig. 1, the power capacity is maintained at 450 GW(e)
for a period of time, to, defined as the time of extension associated
with maintaining the power capacity at 450 GW(e). After time t,, no new
reactors are built, and those in use are operated until the end of their
30-year lifetime.
ORNL-DWG 76-19369
500
' |
~ e to= TIME OF
——————tm——\ EXTENSION
\
400 \
@ \
3, \
LWR2 or
= 300 2 \-
§ HTGR or \\
S
HWR or \
® T 200
W R(Th
- LWR, LWR (Th) \
S \
I Z \
100 ‘.\
\
\
o \
1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
YEAR
Fig. 1.
Thermal reactor power growth scenario I (Initial growth
of 15 GW(e)/year; LWR,, LWR(Th), HWR, or HTGR introduced in 2000).
10
ORNL-DWG 76-19370
500
- fe
r———-“
/ \
400 ¢ \
T A
3. \
z 300 LWR, or \
Q
< LWR (Thyor \
S \
© HTGR or \
ax 200 Y
< HWR \
-
3 \
2 LWR, \
100 \
\
0 \
1970 2000 2030 2060
YEAR
Fig. 2. Power growth scenario IA (Initial growth of 15 GW(e)/year;
LWR,, LWR(Th), HWR, or HTGR introduced in 1995).