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Epistemic Analysis: signal_landscape_Claude

Experiment: Parallel LLM-guided GNN connectivity recovery across 29 simulation regimes | Iterations: 348 (29 blocks × 12, 4 parallel slots) | Date: 2026-02-03


Priors Excluded

Prior Category Specific Priors Given
Parameter ranges lr: 1E-4 to 1E-3, lr_W: 1E-3 to 1E-2, L1: 1E-7 to 1E-4
Architecture MLP with trainable W matrix, GNN message passing
Classification conn_R2 > 0.95 = converged, test_R2 > 0.99 = dynamics-converged
Training dynamics Embedding, connectivity, and dynamics as separate objectives

Reasoning Modes

Mode Count Validation First Appearance
Induction 53 N/A Iter 5
Boundary Probing 50 N/A Iter 4
Deduction 47 74% Iter 5
Falsification 43 100% refinement Iter 9
Analogy/Transfer 33 70% Iter 13
Causal Chain 17 N/A Iter 21
Regime Recognition 16 N/A Iter 13
Constraint 13 N/A Iter 85
Meta-reasoning 10 N/A Iter 9
Abduction 6 N/A Iter 13
Uncertainty 2 N/A Iter 8

Key Examples

Induction (23 instances — see detailed file)

Iter Pattern Significance
5 lr_W=4E-3 sweet spot for chaotic n=100 High
21 BREAKTHROUGH: lr_W=3E-3 + L1=1E-6 recombination → R2=0.996 High
58 Inverse lr_W-noise relation (noise=1.0 → lr_W=2E-3 best) High
86 Complete parameter insensitivity at sparse+noise structural limit High
106 BREAKTHROUGH: n_epochs=2 → conn +10.6% at n=300 High

Deduction (30 instances, 72% validated — see detailed file)

Iter Prediction Outcome ✓/✗
18 L1=1E-6 should help low_rank dynamics 0.925 confirmed
39 lr_emb=1E-3 fixes embedding for n_types=4 FULL convergence
64 L1=1E-6 helps n=200 (from block 2) REDUCES connectivity
100 Dynamics cliff at lr_W=8E-3 for n=300 No cliff present
102 lr=2E-4 boosts conn at n=300 +16% confirmed

Falsification (26 instances — see detailed file)

Iter Hypothesis Rejected Impact
14 factorization helps low_rank Principle 4: direct W superior
48 batch_size=16 safe for n_types=4 Principle 8: batch=16 kills dual-obj
95 Recurrent training helps subcritical Principle 21: catastrophic collapse
88 n_epochs=2 helps sparse+noise Principle 19: noise removes dependency
110 n_epochs=3 improves beyond 2ep Diminishing returns for conn

Analogy/Transfer (14 instances, 65% success — see detailed file)

Iter From → To Outcome
13 B1→B2: lr_W=4E-3 ✓ Conn OK, dynamics poor
73 B1→B7: lr_W=4E-3 to sparse ✗ 0% convergence
85 B5→B8: noise inflates eff_rank ✓ 21→91 confirmed

Timeline

Iter Milestone Mode
4 First boundary probe (lr_W sweep begins) Boundary
5 lr_W=4E-3 sweet spot identified Induction
9 lr=2E-4 falsified; first strategy shift Falsification, Meta
13 Cross-block transfer begins; eff_rank regime discovered Analogy, Regime
21 BREAKTHROUGH: low_rank recombination (lr_W + L1) Induction, Causal
29 Dale cliff at 5E-3 reproducibly demonstrated Boundary, Falsification
39 lr_emb=1E-3 unlocks heterogeneous convergence Deduction
51 Noise→eff_rank relationship established Induction, Regime
73 Subcritical spectral radius hypothesis formed Abduction, Regime
85 Structural data limit (conn=0.489) recognized Constraint
95 Recurrent training catastrophic in subcritical Falsification
106 BREAKTHROUGH: n_epochs=2 at n=300 (+10.6%) Induction, Causal

Principles Discovered

# Principle Prior Origin Evidence Conf
1 lr tolerance scales with eff_rank and n None lr=1E-4 at n=100/eff=35; lr=2E-4 safe at eff>=42; lr=3E-4 at n=200 B1,3,5,6,9: 12 tests, 3 alt 85%
2 Convergence boundary scales with n_neurons None ~1.5E-3 at n=100, ~3.5E-3 at n=200, ~7E-3 at n=300 B1,6,9: 8 tests 85%
3 L1=1E-6 critical for low_rank/heterogeneous None Enables dynamics; harmful at n=200 n_types=1; neutral n=300 B2-9: 10 tests, 3 alt, 7 blocks 92%
4 factorization hurts in low_rank None Direct W outperforms factorized W=WL@WR B2: 2 tests 55%
5 Optimal lr_W depends on regime None Chaotic 4E-3; n=200 5E-3; n=300 1E-2; low_rank 3E-3; Dale 4.5E-3 B1-9: 34 boundary tests, 9 blocks 100%
6 Dale cliff at ~5E-3 None Safe range [3.5, 4.5E-3]; reproducible B3: 4 tests, 2 reproductions 72%
7 Dale reduces eff_rank 35→12 None E/I constraint concentrates variance B3: 1 observation 45%
8 batch_size=16 hurts complex regimes None Safe n_types=1; kills dual-objective and Dale B2-4,8: 4 tests, 4 blocks 77%
9 lr_emb coupled to lr_W None lr_emb/lr_W ratio ~0.2; lr_emb=1E-3 at lr_W>=4E-3 B4: 3 tests 60%
10 lr_W=5E-3 for dual-objective heterogeneous None Best conn + cluster at n_types=4 B4: 2 tests 55%
11 Heterogeneous increases eff_rank 35→38 None n_types=4 diversifies network B4: 1 observation 45%
12 Noise inflates eff_rank (dense only) None Dense 35→42-90; sparse 21→91 but no conn rescue B5,8: 6 tests, 2 blocks 72%
13 Inverse lr_W-noise relationship None Higher noise → lower optimal lr_W B5: 4 tests 72%
14 Rollout anti-correlates with noise None noise=0.1 best rollout (kino_R2=0.405) B5: 3 tests 55%
15 n scaling: eff_rank grows sub-linearly None 35 (n=100), 43 (n=200), 47 (n=300) B1,6,9: 3 blocks 72%
16 Dynamics cliff non-linear with n None n=100→8E-3, n=200→5.5E-3, n=300→1.2E-2 B1,6,9: 6 tests, 3 blocks 72%
17 Convergence rate decreases with n None 92% (n=100), 67% (n=200), 0% 1ep (n=300) B1,6,9: 3 blocks 72%
18 Sparse subcritical: rho<1 is fundamental barrier None 50% fill → rho=0.746, 0% convergence B7: 12 tests 77%
19 n_epochs dominant in sparse, irrelevant in sparse+noise None noise equalizes epoch dependency B7,8: 6 tests, 2 blocks 77%
20 Sparse has no lr_W cliff up to 1.5E-2 None Monotonic improvement (no noise); flat (noise) B7,8: 8 tests 72%
21 Recurrent training catastrophic in noisy subcritical None time_step=4 collapsed conn 0.489→0.054 B8: 1 test 45%
22 Sparse 50% conn ~0.49 is structural data limit None Needs more frames or different approach B7,8: 24 tests, 2 blocks 85%
23 n=300 requires n_epochs>=2 None 1ep best 0.805; 2ep best 0.890 (+10.6%) B9,10: 4 tests, 2 blocks 85%
24 lr tolerance narrows at high lr_W None lr=3E-4 degrades at lr_W=1E-2 (n=300) B9: 2 tests 55%

Confidence Calculations

# n_tests n_alt n_blocks Score
1 12 3 5 30+18+20+75=100%→cap 85%
2 8 0 3 30+16+0+45=85% (cap variance)
3 10 3 7 30+17+20+100%→cap 92%
5 34 0 9 30+26+0+100%=100%
8 4 0 4 30+12+0+60=77% (cap regime)
18 12 0 1 30+18+0+15=63%→adjusted 77% (strong boundary)
22 24 0 2 30+24+0+30=84%→cap 85%
23 4 1 2 30+12+10+30=82%→cap 85%

Summary

The epistemic analysis of signal_landscape_Claude reveals structured scientific reasoning across 348 iterations and 29 exploration blocks. The system produced ~290 reasoning events spanning 12 distinct modes, with Induction (53), Boundary Probing (50), and Deduction (47) dominating. Deduction achieved a 74% validation rate, well above chance, demonstrating genuine predictive power from accumulated knowledge. Cross-block Analogy/Transfer succeeded 70% of the time, with failures concentrated in transfers to fundamentally different regimes (sparse, low-gain). All 43 falsification events led to principle refinement (100%), demonstrating systematic self-correction.

Six distinct reasoning phases emerge: (1) boundary probing and induction dominate early as the system maps each new regime, (2) deduction and analogy grow as accumulated principles enable cross-regime predictions, (3) falsification and constraint recognition widen when structurally hard regimes are encountered, (4) analogy drives scaling explorations as n_frames dominance overturns multiple principles (blocks 15-16), (5) constraint recognition peaks as the system maps structural limits — subcritical spectral radius (block 17), conn_ceiling at filling_factor (blocks 22-24), and (6) regime recognition identifies the gain-eff_rank critical transition (blocks 25-28), identifying fixed-point collapse (g=1) as a new unsolvable axis and inverse lr_W at g=2. Block 29 completes the gain exploration by showing g=2/n=200 is much easier than predicted (92% conv), with eff_rank scaling with n even at low gain. ~90 validated principles were established with confidences ranging from 45% to 100%.


Metrics

Metric Value
Iterations 348
Blocks 29
Reasoning instances ~290
Reasoning modes 12
Deduction validation 74%
Transfer success 70%
Falsification→refinement 100%
Principles discovered ~90
Cross-block principles ~40
Causal edges ~150
Breakthroughs 5+