Time series forecasting using Uber's Orbit and Facebook's Prophet
- Forecast Waze daily mileage data for Italy
- Forecast average daily temperatures for Italy
- Forecast mileage data using daily temperatures as explanatory variable
- Orbit Local Global Trend (LGT), Damped Local Trend (DLT) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS)
- Facebook's Prophet
- Arima
- Prophet yields a smaller prediction error than other forecasting models
- For Orbit models, prediction error increases if temperature is used as a regressor for predicting mileage
- For Prophet, including temperature as a regressor yields a smaller prediction error
- https://towardsdatascience.com/time-series-modeling-with-orbit-a38e03a2a4ea
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08492.pdf
- Waze mileage data: https://github.com/ActiveConclusion/COVID19_mobility
- Temperature data: https://github.com/GoogleCloudPlatform/covid-19-open-data