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<div class="page-header">
  <h1>Research</h1>
  <div class="subtitle">Publications, working papers, and work in progress.</div>
</div>

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  <button class="active" data-filter="all">All</button>
  <button data-filter="cash-transfers">Cash Transfers</button>
  <button data-filter="evidence-to-policy">Evidence-to-Policy Pipeline</button>
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<div class="research-content">

  <div class="topic-group" data-topic="cash-transfers">
    <h2>Cash Transfers</h2>
    <div class="topic-coverage">Media coverage (100+ articles): <em>Financial Times</em>, <em>New York Times</em>, <em>NPR</em>, <em>Scientific American</em>, <em>Wired</em>, <em>Washington Post</em>, <em>Vox</em>, <em>Forbes</em>, <em>Newsweek</em>, <em>USA Today</em></div>
    <ul class="paper-list">
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Vivalt-et-al-ORUS-employment.pdf">The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Rhodes, Bartik, Broockman, Krause, Miller (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">QJE, forthcoming</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Miller-et-al-ORUS-health.pdf">Does Income Affect Health? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Guaranteed Income</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Miller, Rhodes, Bartik, Broockman, Krause (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">AER, cond. acc.</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Bartik-et-al-ORUS-household-finance.pdf">The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Household Balance Sheets: Experimental Evidence from Two US States</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Bartik, Rhodes, Broockman, Krause, Miller (2024)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Broockman-et-al-ORUS-political.pdf">The Causal Effects of Income on Political Attitudes and Behavior: A Randomized Field Experiment</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Broockman, Rhodes, Bartik, Dotson, Krause, Miller (2024)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Krause-et-al-ORUS-children.pdf">The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Krause, Rhodes, Miller, Bartik, Broockman (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">AER, rej. and resubmit</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">The Unclaimed Property Puzzle: Billion Dollar Bills Lying on the Sidewalk</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Vivalt (2024)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Rhodes-et-al-ORUS-intrahousehold.pdf">Income Shocks and Intrahousehold Dynamics: Evidence from a Guaranteed Income Experiment</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Rhodes, Broockman, Krause, Miller, Bartik (2026)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">What Have We Learned From Randomized Controlled Trials of Guaranteed Income?</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Goodman-Bacon, Miller, Rhodes, Bartik</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">JEL, R&R</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">The Effects of Unconditional Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Two Large Pilots</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Abdul-Razzak, Bartik, Miller, Rhodes</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">In progress</div>
      </li>
    </ul>
  </div>

  <div class="topic-group" data-topic="evidence-to-policy">
    <h2>The Evidence-to-Policy Pipeline</h2>
    <div class="topic-coverage">Media coverage: <em>VoxDev</em>, <em>Social Science Research Council</em></div>
    <ul class="paper-list">
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Formal-Evidence.pdf">Local Knowledge, Formal Evidence, and Policy Decisions</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Coville, KC (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">J Dev Econ</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/How-Do-Policymakers-Update.pdf">How Do Policymakers Update Their Beliefs?</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Coville (2023)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">J Dev Econ</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">Seeking Evidence: Which Studies Do Policymakers Prefer?</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Coville, KC (2023)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Policy_Professionals.pdf">Do Policy Professionals See the World as It Is - or as They Are? Perceptions of Public Preferences over Redistributive Policy Designs</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Coville, Dai (2026)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
    </ul>
  </div>

  <div class="topic-group" data-topic="forecasting-metascience">
    <h2>Forecasting and Metascience</h2>
    <div class="topic-coverage">Media coverage: <em>Financial Times</em>, <em>The Atlantic</em>, <em>Washington Post</em>, <em>Vox</em>, <em>Mother Jones</em>, <em>Ars Technica</em>, <em>Science Daily</em>, <em>Behavioral Scientist</em>, <em>Marginal Revolution</em></div>
    <ul class="paper-list">
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w34493">Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with DellaVigna (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">NBER WP</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201080">Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with DellaVigna, Otis (2020)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">AEA P&P</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz1704">Predict Science to Improve Science</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with DellaVigna, Pope (2019)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">Science</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Model-Challenges-Covid-Mortality.pdf">The Model Challenges: Gathering, Aggregating, and Evaluating Covid Mortality Models</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Golden, Scacco, Zhai, Slough, Humphreys, Diaz-Cayeros, Dionne, KC, Nazrullaeva, et al. (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">Working paper</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">What are the Prospects of Forecasting the Far Future?</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Bernard (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">OUP book chapter</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">Using Priors in Experimental Design: How Much Are We Leaving on the Table?</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Vivalt (2020)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">OUP book chapter</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa019">How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Vivalt (2020)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">JEEA</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Trajectory-of-Specification-Searching.pdf">Specification Searching and Significance Inflation Across Time, Methods and Disciplines</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Vivalt (2019)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">Oxford B Econ Stat</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Heterogeneous-Treatment-Effects.pdf">Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Vivalt (2015)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">AER P&P</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title">Priors</div>
          <div class="paper-authors">Invited review article for the Annual Review of Economics</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-status">In progress</div>
      </li>
    </ul>
  </div>

  <div class="topic-group" data-topic="values-norms">
    <h2>Values & Norms</h2>
    <ul class="paper-list">
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4984557">Moral Preferences and the Marketplace of Ideas</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Huet-Vaughn, Pham, Tasoff (2025)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">Econ J, R&R</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="papers/Impact-of-New-Products-on-Ethical-Beliefs.pdf">The Impact of New Products on Ethical Beliefs</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Freitas-Groff, Macdonald (2026)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">EER</div>
      </li>
      <li>
        <div>
          <div class="paper-title"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejab039">Challenges in Changing Social Norms: Evidence from Interventions Targeting Child Marriage in Ethiopia</a></div>
          <div class="paper-authors">with Chow (2022)</div>
        </div>
        <div class="paper-venue">J Af Econ</div>
      </li>
    </ul>
  </div>

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