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README.md

ModelRisk MCP — Demo Gallery

Fifteen hands-on demo workbooks, each showing one feature area of ModelRisk MCP on a simple, real-life use case. Every workbook is self-contained — its README sheet offers two ways in:

  • FAST TRACK — one aggregated prompt that runs the whole demo end-to-end (build, simulate, analyse, report) in a single message. Paste it and watch.
  • Step-by-step — the same journey as numbered steps, one capability at a time, each with the exact prompt to type to Claude and what to expect back. 5–10 minutes.

Getting started: save this folder anywhere on your PC, then once per session tell Claude where it is — "My ModelRisk demo gallery is in <your folder>. Open 01_build_model_from_brief.xlsx from there." After that, "open <file> from the demo folder" is enough.

Start with 00_START_HERE.xlsx — the index, prerequisites and colour legend.

Workbook Real-life scenario Features shown
01_build_model_from_brief.xlsx Coffee-chain store expansion NPV build_model_from_brief, plan_risk_model, run_simulation, undo
02_fit_distributions.xlsx Bakery daily demand from 365 days of history fit_and_rank_distributions, fit_distribution_to_data, compute_distribution
03_fit_copula_and_wire.xlsx Construction input costs that spike together fit_copula_to_data, fit_all_data_and_wire
04_reverse_stress_test.xlsx Data-centre budget breach, post-mortem in advance build_model_from_brief, reverse_stress_test
05_simulation_and_charts.xlsx Consumer-gadget launch profit run_simulation, create_histogram_chart, create_cdf_chart, create_tornado_chart
06_audit_model.xlsx Inherited "messy" model health-check audit_model, diagnose_workbook, find_hard_coded_inputs, restore_cell
07_insurance_aggregate.xlsx Motor insurer annual loss + capital adequacy create_aggregate (FFT), create_risk_event, get_tail_risk
08_scenarios_pricing.xlsx SaaS pricing decision — $79 / $99 / $119 run_scenarios, replace_constant_with_distribution
09_tail_risk_op_losses.xlsx Bank operational-risk 99.9% capital fit_tail (GPD), get_tail_risk, create_aggregate_mc
10_time_series_and_construction.xlsx CFO 5-year stochastic revenue forecast create_time_series, create_copula, set_named_range, save_workbook_as
11_executive_report.xlsx Board pack for a quarry acquisition build_executive_report, build_drivers_report, generate_executive_summary
12_fit_time_series.xlsx CFO revenue projection — dynamics fitted from history fit_time_series, read_vmrs, set_active_vmrs
13_compare_options.xlsx Two suppliers, one contract — P(A beats B) compare_distributions, compute_correlation_matrix
14_backtest_forecast.xlsx Was last year's forecast honestly calibrated? backtest_output
15_uncertainty_sources.xlsx More data or more capital? Epistemic vs aleatory decompose_uncertainty

Prerequisites

  • Windows Excel with the ModelRisk add-in installed and licensed.
  • modelrisk-mcp connected to Claude (Claude Desktop / Claude Code) — see the setup guides.

Design notes

  • The workbooks contain no live Vose formulas — each is a deterministic starting point (data + plan). The Vose layer is built by Claude, in front of you, following the README steps. That's the demo: the agent does the modelling work, and every write is journaled and reversible.
  • Shared formatting: navy title bands, light-blue cells = inputs you can change, pale-yellow cells = where Claude writes Vose formulas / results, green = the key decision metric, grey italic = a prompt to type to Claude.
  • All synthetic data is generated with fixed seeds (noted on each Data sheet), so the demos are reproducible. All files recalculate with zero formula errors in Excel.