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2025WH

Codex/ChatGPT (July 2026)

Summary

This update extends a 2022 cross-concept assessment of fusion progress using Lawson parameters, ion temperature, triple product, and scientific energy gain. It incorporates peer-reviewed results from magnetic, inertial, and magneto-inertial experiments, including C-2W, FuZE, JET, MagLIF, NIF, OMEGA, PCS, PI3, and ST40. Revised plots compare Lawson parameter and triple product against temperature and track record triple products over time; a new plot reports measured scientific gain directly. The paper clarifies that Lawson criteria specify both temperature and density--confinement requirements and that the target gain or ignition definition must be stated. For inertial confinement, it reframes the hot-spot ignition threshold using measured stagnation time, raising the plotted idealized threshold by a factor of three. It also explains why triple product does not uniquely determine gain and becomes misleading beyond inertial-confinement ignition, where propagating burn shortens the measured burn duration. Updated tables document source data and highlight NIF's scientific breakeven, later gain increases, and JET's record fusion energies. The compilation is transparent and reproducible through released plotting code, but several values require stated inference assumptions and the authors disclose financial interests in some represented companies.

Contributions

  1. Updated a cross-concept Lawson-parameter and triple-product dataset with experimental results published since 2022.
  2. Added a direct time history of measured scientific energy gain for deuterium--tritium experiments.
  3. Reframed inertial-confinement ignition criteria using experimentally measured stagnation time and a corrected threshold.
  4. Clarified the limits of triple product as a proxy for gain, especially near and beyond inertial-confinement ignition.
  5. Released revised tables and plotting code that make assumptions, corrections, and source provenance explicit.