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_Formerly known as Immunization Uptake Projections, or `vcf`._
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This repo represents an experimental prototype for forecasting the coverage of vaccinations.
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## Getting started
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1. Read the docs at <https://cdcgov.github.io/cfa-vaccination-coverage-forecasting>, or build them locally with `mkdocs serve`
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## Vignette
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The vignette demonstrates a workflow using this package:
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The vignette demonstrates an analytical pipeline:
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1. Fit a model to coverage data from past seasons
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1. Use it to forecast future coverage data in the latest season
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1. Fit models to coverage data from past seasons
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1. Use those trained models to forecast future coverage data in the latest season
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1. Evaluate forecasts against observed values
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### Data source
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For convenience, the raw data are tracked in this repo under `data/`, which includes the script `get_nis.py`, used to collect that data with [`nis-py-api`](https://github.com/CDCgov/nis-py-api). These are estimates of season flu vaccination coverage, tracked monthly from the 2009/2010 to 2022/2023 seasons, from the [National Immunization Survey](https://www.cdc.gov/nis/about/index.html) and [Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System](https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/index.html).
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The vignette uses monthly estimates of season flu vaccination coverage, from the 2009/2010 season through the 2022/2023 season, as reported by the [National Immunization Survey](https://www.cdc.gov/nis/about/index.html) and [Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System](https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/index.html) and cleaned using [`nis-py-api`](https://github.com/CDCgov/nis-py-api) in December 2025.
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### Running the vignette
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1. Run the pipeline with `make`. (You can run steps in parallel with, e.g., `make -j4`.)
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- By default, `make` will use `scripts/config_vignette.yaml` for its configuration.
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- You can use different configs by running `make CONFIG=/path/to/config.yaml`
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- You can use different configs by running `make CONFIG=/path/to/config.yaml`.
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2. Inspect `output/vignette/`:
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-`config.yaml`: a copy of the input config
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-`data.parquet`: the preprocessed, observed data
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-`plots/`: visualizations
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-`pred/`: model predictions, in Hive-partitioned parquet files
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