An institutional-grade, browser-based valuation tool for evaluating SaaS and tech-enabled services companies. Built to replicate the analytical rigor used in private equity and M&A processes, with all multiples and benchmarks sourced from primary market data.
Most SaaS valuation calculators slap a revenue multiple on ARR and call it done. This model does the full job:
- EV/ARR multiple build-up with 9 source-cited adjustment factors (growth, Rule of 40, NRR, GRR, gross margin, LTV:CAC, revenue mix, size premium, technology modifiers)
- Bear / Base / Bull scenarios anchored to actual M&A transaction data, not public market comps by default
- Full DCF model — builds from ARR → Revenue → COGS → GP → OpEx by line → EBITDA → NOPAT → FCF with WACC-discounted PV and terminal value
- ARR Bridge — first-principles waterfall: Opening + New Logo + Expansion − Contraction − Churn = Closing, with NRR reconciliation check
- Cohort retention curves — 5 vintage cohorts modeled over 7 years, shows whether the installed base self-compounds or erodes
- Sensitivity heatmaps — full model re-computed at every cell (not approximations): ARR Growth × NRR, WACC × terminal growth, Gross Margin × EBITDA Margin
- Comparable company table — enter up to 3 comps side-by-side with best-in-peer highlighting
- Diligence scorecard — weighted 20-item PE-standard checklist (Revenue, Financials, Risk, Legal, Efficiency) with live scoring
- Automated risk flags — threshold-based flags with source citations (ABF Journal, SEG, SaaS Capital, Windsor Drake)
Every number in this model is sourced. Key references:
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Private M&A median multiple | 4.1x ARR | SEG 2025 Annual SaaS Report (3,163 deals) |
| Equity-backed private median | 5.3x ARR | SaaS Capital 2025 survey (n=1,000+) |
| Public SaaS median | 6.7–7.0x ARR | SaaS Capital Index, June 2025 |
| Rule of 40 impact | +2.2x per 10 pts | Aventis Advisors (459 deals, 2015–2025) |
| NRR >120% multiple | 11.7x (public) | SEG 2025 Annual SaaS Report, p.30 |
| NRR 100–110% multiple | 6.0x (public) | SEG 2025 Annual SaaS Report, p.30 |
| Bear scenario discount | ×0.58 (−42%) | Windsor Drake M&A 2025 |
| Bull scenario premium | ×1.50 (+50%) | Windsor Drake M&A 2025 |
| GRR lender covenant floor | 85% | ABF Journal SaaS lending standards 2025 |
| LTV:CAC median | 3.6x | Benchmarkit 2024 (n=936) |
| CAC payback median | 20 months | SaaS Benchmark Report 2025 (n=2,000+) |
| Magic Number median | 0.90 | Benchmarkit 2024 (n=936) |
| Growth endurance | 65%/yr | Benchmarkit 2025 |
| AI-native premium | 20–40% | SaasRise / Battery Ventures 2025 |
| Public/private premium | 36% | SEG: private 4.1x vs public 5.6x, 2024 |
- React 18 — UI framework
- Vite — build tool
- Pure SVG — all charts are hand-rolled SVG (no chart library dependencies)
- Zero external UI libraries — everything is custom
- Node.js 18+
- npm or yarn
# Clone the repo
git clone https://github.com/evanjreid/saas-valuation-model.git
cd saas-valuation-model
# Install dependencies
npm install
# Start dev server
npm run devOpen http://localhost:5173.
npm run buildOutput goes to dist/. Deploy this folder to any static host.
- Push this repo to GitHub
- Go to vercel.com → New Project → Import your repo
- Framework preset: Vite (auto-detected)
- Click Deploy
Done. Vercel handles everything. Takes about 90 seconds.
The base EV/ARR multiple is constructed as a waterfall of adjustments:
Base (stage × business type, private M&A anchored)
+ Growth adjustment (+0.8x per 10ppts vs stage median)
+ Rule of 40 adjustment (+2.2x per 10pts — Aventis exact)
+ NRR adjustment (SEG band data: <90%=1.2x → >120%=11.7x public)
+ GRR adjustment (ABF covenant floor at 85%)
+ Gross margin adjustment
+ LTV:CAC adjustment
+ Revenue mix adjustment
× Size premium (Solganick: ~1-2x per $20M ARR)
× Technology modifiers (AI, vertical, network effects, UBP)
= Base Multiple
Bear = Base × 0.58 | Bull = Base × 1.50
ARR → Recognized Revenue
Revenue − COGS = Gross Profit
GP − R&D − S&M − G&A = EBITDA
EBITDA − D&A = EBIT
EBIT × (1 − 25% tax) = NOPAT
NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔWC + SBC = Free Cash Flow
PV(FCFs) + PV(Terminal Value) = DCF Enterprise Value
Terminal value uses Gordon Growth Model. EBITDA multiple cross-check included as a sanity check.
Each cohort starts at $1 ARR. Annual retention:
- Logo survival = (1 − logo_churn)^year
- Per-customer expansion = NRR / annual_logo_retention
- Net cohort revenue = logo_survival × per_customer_expansion^year
Curves above 1.0 = self-compounding installed base. Below 1.0 = net revenue decay.
This is an analytical tool, not a formal valuation opinion. Real deal valuations depend on:
- Proprietary diligence (cohort data, pipeline audit, QoE analysis)
- Specific buyer synergies and strategic rationale
- Capital market conditions at time of transaction
- Negotiating dynamics and process structure
Use this for initial screening and analytical framing. Engage a qualified M&A advisor for formal opinions.
Pull requests welcome. If you find a benchmark that's outdated or a source that's more current, open an issue with the citation.
MIT — use freely, attribution appreciated.