feat(polymarket): prediction-market section — venue, AI analysis, suggestions & trading#161
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Re-adds Polymarket as a venue (prediction markets, CLOB API) following the re-adding checklist in docs/venues/abstraction.md, and makes venue routing per-strategy so Binance and Polymarket strategies run side by side: - Restore engine/venues/polymarket.py + tests from the pre-reduction tree, and add PolymarketOrderClient — a py-clob-client wrapper that signs and submits live CLOB market orders (shares are converted to a USDC amount for market BUYs; responses normalised for the venue). - Register the venue (no sandbox; credential fields private_key, api_key, api_secret, passphrase, wallet_address) and wire build_venue: public market data with no creds, signing client with the full set. - BaseStrategy/StrategyInstance/AISignal gain a `venue`; VenueRouter and ExecutorRouter accept an explicit venue override; the engine resolves market data and executors per strategy venue. Testnet mode falls back to Sim for venues without a sandbox. - Widen symbol columns to 80 chars (Polymarket token ids are ~77 digits) — migration 0022. - tests/__init__.py: py-clob-client deps ship a stray top-level `tests` package; mark our tests directory a regular package so imports resolve. https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj
Adds the engine/polymarket module — the prediction-market side of the
platform, deliberately slow-cadence (markets move on events and news, not
ticks):
- Discovery: refresh_markets pulls the top-volume active markets from the
public Gamma API into a local prediction_market catalogue (upsert by
condition id); list/search/watch APIs under /api/polymarket power the
market browser. Migration 0023.
- AI bet analysis: analyze_market packs a market's question, prices, time
to resolution and news headlines matched to the question's keywords
(new news.service.search), asks the configured writer LLM for a strict
-JSON probability estimate, and stores the edge (estimate minus market
price) as a market_analysis row. Usage recorded as purpose=polymarket
under the daily AI spend cap.
- Screening: run_screening_cycle analyses the watchlist plus the top-N
markets every N hours; an analysis clearing the operator's edge and
confidence bars becomes a pending AISignal (Telegram + dashboard) that
executes through the existing risk-gated confirmation path.
- Resolution sync: watched/held markets are re-checked hourly; on
resolution the position settles at 1/0 USDC directly into the
sub-ledger (redemption, not an order) and the operator is alerted.
- Settings: polymarket_{refresh,research}_hours, edge threshold, min
confidence, screen top-N and stake — readable/updatable via
/api/settings (PUT /api/settings/polymarket).
https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj
Adds PredictionAIStrategy — automated trading on AI-found edge. It subclasses AIStrategy so the engine's existing AI machinery (per-strategy provider/model resolution, daily spend cap, usage recording and the notify/auto action mode) applies unchanged: - Each tick it reads the latest stored bet analysis for its token's market, re-running the AI at a configurable cadence when stale; enters when the token's edge clears edge_threshold with min_confidence, exits when the edge is gone. NO tokens mirror the stored YES edge. - Closed/resolved markets are never traded — the resolution sync settles held tokens at 1/0. - Registered as a pickable type; StrategyType gains a `venue` pin (prediction_ai → polymarket) enforced by build_strategy and surfaced via /api/strategies/types, and kind=="AI" checks become isinstance(AIStrategy) so the subclass inherits model config, seeding and the read model. https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj
…yses - New Polymarket page (route + sidebar entry): browse the discovered markets most-traded first with search and an All/Watchlist scope, pin markets to the AI's watchlist, and open a detail panel showing the latest AI bet analysis — estimated probability vs market price, edge, confidence and reasoning, with the recent-analysis trail. Admins can refresh the catalogue and run a one-off "Analyze now". - Strategies page: venue selector on the create form (locked when a type is pinned, e.g. Prediction AI → Polymarket); Polymarket token-id symbols stay case-sensitive and render truncated with a venue badge. - Settings page: Polymarket card for the discovery/screening cadence, edge threshold, min confidence, screen top-N and suggested stake. The Polymarket credential form comes from the generic per-venue renderer. - lib/api/polymarket.ts client; OpenAPI schema + generated types regenerated. https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj
- polymarket-setup.md: drop the "not yet selectable" warning; document the section's features (discovery, AI bet analysis, suggestions, Prediction AI, resolution settlement), the five stored credential fields and the Sim-fallback behaviour in Testnet mode. - abstraction.md: document per-strategy venue routing. - README / docs index / api-features / research status: Binance-only framing becomes Binance + Polymarket; roadmap Phase 8 marked in progress. - CHANGELOG: Unreleased "Added" entry for the whole section. https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj
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Summary
Adds a Polymarket prediction-market section to the platform, mirroring the Binance side with venue access, automated trading, trade suggestions and alerts — but tuned for prediction markets (AI bet/news analysis instead of high-frequency trading).
PolymarketVenuewith per-strategy venue routing60 files changed, +4965 / −75.
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