mongird-etal_2025

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Kendall Mongird^1*, Kerem Ziya Akdemir¹, Cameron Bracken¹, Casey D. Burleyson¹, Travis Thurber¹, Chris R. Vernon¹, Mengqi Zhao¹, Jennie S. Rice¹

¹ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.

* corresponding author: kendall.mongird@pnnl.gov

Abstract

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Journal reference

to be filled in upon publication

Data reference

Dataset	Type	Repository Link	DOI
CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations	Input Data	https://data.msdlive.org/records/62fpt-0jr75	https://doi.org/10.57931/2479527
Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection	Input and Output Data	https://data.msdlive.org/records/6bvnd-ks423	https://doi.org/10.57931/2998526

Contributing modeling software

Model	Version	Model Repository Link	DOI of Specific Version
GO	v0.1.0	https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/go	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15399795
TEP	v1.1.0	https://github.com/keremakdemir/Transmission_Expansion_Planner	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15413081
GCAM-USA	v5.3	https://github.com/JGCRI/gcam-core	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3908600
CERF	v2.4.0	https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13830460
TELL	v1.1.0	https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/tell	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8264217
reV	v0.7.0	https://github.com/NREL/reV	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7301491

Reproduce my analysis and figures

Use the scripts/files found in the scripts directory to reproduce the analysis and figures presented in this publication.

• Please check and make sure that all the necessary packages listed in requirements.txt are installed in your local Python environment.

Run the following scripts to complete the analysis and prepare figures:

Script Name	Description
prepare_data.py	Script to organize data for analysis and plotting
run_analysis.py	Script to run the random forest classifier and SHAP analysis
plot_fig_3.py	Script to plot Fig 3, SI-1, and SI-2
plot_fig_4.py	Script to plot Fig 4 and SI-3
plot_fig_5.py	Script to plot Fig 5
plot_fig_6.py	Script to plot Fig 6 and SI-4
plot_fig_7.py	Script to plot Fig 7 and SI-5-12