@@ -27,19 +27,27 @@ append-only trail lives in [log.md](log.md).
2727
2828** ETH/USD:** blocked until BTC protocol approved.
2929
30+ ## Next Step (consolidated — requires explicit GO)
31+
32+ Selection-learning is ** paused at the enrichment lock** (Commit 1, docs-only; no code). Next is a
33+ ** GO-fork** — direction is the user's call (AGENTS.md §1); recommendation: ** A first** , then B.
34+
35+ - ** A — enrichment Commit 2:** build/run the ` exclusivity ` / leg-completeness shot
36+ (` selection_learning_enrich.py ` ) — nested AP-lift vs the current Stage-2 model, 4h k=3, per the
37+ [ enrichment LOCK] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-enrichment-lock-20260624.md ) . Prior ** low** ;
38+ a clean ` no_enrichment_signal ` routes pre-committed to B (§E8). Cheap/locked/blind → run first.
39+ - ** B — grow facit:** park modeling, return to the main quest — more/better human labels
40+ ([ main-quest reset] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-main-quest-reset-20260624.md ) §5).
41+
42+ ** No code/run/build until a separate explicit GO** (discriminator = appetite: close per-leg features via A → then B, or pivot straight to B).
43+
3044## Recent Changes
3145
32- - ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING model-ENRICHMENT — LOCKED (Commit 1, docs-only), RUN PENDING
33- separate GO.** One lean north-star-aligned shot: does a single causal ** leg-completeness /
34- ` exclusivity ` ** feature (is the leg the * dominant complete* impulse, not a sub-leg — pivot-structural,
35- k* =3, ** distinct** from ` cleanliness ` ) raise pooled OOS AP ** over the CURRENT Stage-2 model** (nested,
36- not the trivial baseline) on 4h live k=3? Blind verdict (` enrichment_helps ` / `no_enrichment_signal →
37- park modeling + grow facit`); honest prior ** low** (4 features already ~ 0 at k=3). Scope OUT:
38- scale_confluence/HTF, more mechanics, matched-null, new universe, Genesis/1H/ETH/refresh. Reuses
39- Stage-2 universe/ε/split/AP/bootstrap verbatim; new module ` selection_learning_enrich.py ` .
40- ** ⏸ PAUSED HERE (2026-06-24).** Resume = either ** GO Commit 2** (build/run the exclusivity shot per
41- the lock) ** or** route to ** labeling** (lock §E8 / reset §5: grow/improve the facit). No code started.
42- [ Enrichment LOCK] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-enrichment-lock-20260624.md ) .
46+ - ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING model-ENRICHMENT — LOCKED (Commit 1, docs-only); ⏸ PAUSED.**
47+ Blind lock for one lean shot: does a causal ** leg-completeness / ` exclusivity ` ** feature
48+ (pivot-structural, k* =3, distinct from ` cleanliness ` ) raise pooled OOS AP ** over the current Stage-2
49+ model** (nested) on 4h k=3? Prior ** low** ; clean null routes to facit growth (§E8). Resume/fork now
50+ under ** ## Next Step** above. No code started. [ Enrichment LOCK] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-enrichment-lock-20260624.md ) .
4351- ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING — MAIN-QUEST RESET (docs-only).** Stop the mechanics drift,
4452 re-anchor to the north star (above). Controls/mechanics (artifact-probe, snapping/net-path mechanics,
4553 flip) are ** DONE; matched-null / detector-geometry side-quests PARKED.** Next step only if it improves
@@ -116,13 +124,10 @@ legs/ranges* (labels = facit; **no edge/behaviour/backtest/PnL/Genesis/auto-fib
116124 [ Results] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-stage1-results-20260624.md ) ; summary + ` cells/*.json `
117125 gitignored/regenerable. Re-run (deterministic, frozen data, ** no ` --refresh ` ** ):
118126 ` PYTHONUNBUFFERED=1 uv run --no-sync python -u -m fibengine.research.selection_learning_stage1 --stage1 ` .
119- - ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING campaign CHECKPOINT (docs-only, no new claim).** Consolidates
120- the five committed runs (Stage-2 → prominence-family → k-sweep → W-gap ` no_causal_gap ` → Stage-1
121- ` no_pivot_signal_above_prominence ` ): what we KNOW (modest, OOS, live-available, buffer-stable,
122- baseline-robust ` cleanliness ` lead in the leg gestalt; low absolute AP; 4h-only powered) and the
123- single open CRUX (is ` cleanliness ` a genuine signal or a ** detector/anchoring artifact** ?). Frames
124- the next-step choice A (exclusivity / artifact diagnostic) / B (detector-independent anchor-probe) /
125- C (pause + theory) — ** none started** . [ Checkpoint] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-checkpoint-20260624.md ) .
127+ - ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING campaign CHECKPOINT (docs-only).** Consolidates the five runs
128+ (Stage-2 → prominence-family → k-sweep → W-gap ` no_causal_gap ` → Stage-1 ` no_pivot_signal_above_prominence ` ):
129+ modest OOS baseline-robust ` cleanliness ` lead (low AP; 4h-only powered) + the open CRUX — genuine
130+ signal vs ** detector/anchoring artifact** ? [ Checkpoint] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-checkpoint-20260624.md ) .
126131- ** 2026-06-24 Fib SELECTION-LEARNING ` cleanliness ` artifact-probe — BUILT + RUN → inflationary
127132 artifact NOT supported on 4h, but marginal/non-replicating → "investigate, not a finding".**
128133 Commit 2 of the [ artifact LOCK] ( reviews/btc-fib-selection-learning-artifact-lock-20260624.md )
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