Add SEIR epidemic simulator

[SyedHaider2084]

This PR extends docs/tutorials/tasks/03_bayes_calibration.ipynb by:

1. Adding a SEIR epidemic simulator with parameters (β, γ, σ)
   2.enerating synthetic observations from SEIR
   3.Running Bayesian calibration with:
   i. Pyro on the full simulator
   ii. AutoEmulate’s GaussianProcessRBF emulator

2. Comparing simulator vs emulator posterior samples and trajectories

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[radka-j]

Thanks for moving the simulator code!

Having thought about it, I think it would be better if we created a new notebook for the work you've done here and leave the Bayesian calibration tutorial as it is in the documentation for now. We can then update your notebook with the model comparison code and once that all works end-to-end we can release it as a tutorial in the docs.

You can even put the notebook in the same directory, it won't appear in the docs until we add it to the index.

[radka-j]

Thank again for implementing this!

We have a pre-commit hook set up as part of the continuous integration which checks the code quality. All the comments here should resolve the pre-commit failing right now.

[radka-j]

Thanks @SyedHaider2084, this all looks great!! I just pushed some minor formatting fixes (e.g., removing empty code cells).

[radka-j]

@all-contributors please add @SyedHaider2084 for code

[allcontributors]

@radka-j

I've put up a pull request to add @SyedHaider2084! 🎉