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initial decreasing forecasters rmd#195

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dshemetov merged 22 commits intomaincmu-delphi/exploration-tooling:mainfrom

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Apr 19, 2025

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Commits on Apr 10, 2025

• initial decreasing forecasters rmd

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• geo_pooled

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Commits on Apr 11, 2025

• the problem is quantile regression

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• double population scaling, fixing made it worse

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• linear parenthetical, boost trees are fine

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• moving things around, coefficient inspection

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• format and add as_of plots to fanplots

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• exploring the fit data in detail

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• also doing this for covid

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Commits on Apr 12, 2025

• reorg

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• tweaks

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• yet more tweaks

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• clearer read-through for others

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• tests borked b/c curl?

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• filter pre 2022, test dependencies

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• enh: add forecasting on diffs (ARI rather than AR)

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• doc: add some comments

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• growth_rate filtering

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• enh: try seasonal windowing on diffs forecaster

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Commits on Apr 15, 2025

• enh: do diffs forecast on flusion data

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• minor fixes

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Commits on Apr 16, 2025

• fix+enh: minor fixes and add 0 intercept to slope calculation

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