[Fliex H, Draft] Add daily success-rate-by-chain plot to notebook#4
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[Fliex H, Draft] Add daily success-rate-by-chain plot to notebook#4fhenneke wants to merge 1 commit into
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New section 11 in penalties_analysis.ipynb: per-chain daily settled (success) rate over time at attempt grain, dated by auction_timestamp. Days below MIN_N=20 attempts are dropped to avoid noisy spikes, and each chain's line carries a 95% Wilson confidence band (reusing the existing wilson() helper). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Adds a figure on daily success rates to the notebook.