Polymarket BTC 15m vs 5m Arbitrage Bot

A high-performance Rust arbitrage bot for Polymarket that trades the overlap between Bitcoin 15-minute and 5-minute Up/Down prediction markets. It uses real-time order book data over WebSocket, fetches price-to-beat from Polymarket’s API, and places limit orders when the combined ask across both markets is below a configurable threshold (e.g. < $0.99) for a locked-in profit.

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Table of Contents

• Features
• How It Works
• Requirements
• Installation
• Configuration
• Usage
• Risk Management
• Disclaimer
• Contact

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Features

• Dual-market arbitrage — Trades only when the last 5 minutes of the 15m BTC market overlap with the current 5m BTC market and price-to-beat matches for both.
• Real-time data — Uses Polymarket’s WebSocket market channel for order book updates (no polling for prices).
• Price-to-beat — Fetches open price from Polymarket’s crypto-price API for both 15m and 5m markets (with configurable delay and poll interval).
• Instant execution — Submits both legs as soon as an arb opportunity is detected (sum of asks < threshold).
• Fill verification — After placing orders, checks in ~10 seconds whether both legs filled; if only one filled, sells the matched side and cancels the other.
• Simulation mode — Run without placing real orders to test logic and logs.
• Redeem mode — CLI option to redeem winning positions for a proxy wallet.

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How It Works

1. Arb window
   The bot only runs when:

   • Time is in the last 5 minutes of the current 15m BTC market.
   • The overlapping 5m BTC market exists and is active.
   • Price-to-beat is fetched for both markets (after a short delay from market start) and must match.

2. Opportunity
   It subscribes to the order book (WebSocket) for the 15m Up/Down and 5m Up/Down tokens. When:

   • (15m Up ask + 5m Down ask) < threshold, or
   • (15m Down ask + 5m Up ask) < threshold,
     it places limit buy orders on both sides at the current ask (or your configured logic).

3. Post-trade
   After a short delay (e.g. 10s), it verifies both orders. If only one leg filled, it sells the filled token and cancels the unfilled order to limit downside.

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Requirements

• Rust 1.70+ (rustup recommended)
• Polymarket account with API credentials and (for live trading) a funded proxy wallet
• Polygon network for signing (Polymarket CLOB)

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Installation

git clone https://github.com/crellos/polymarket-trading-bot-5m-markets.git
cd polymarket-trading-bot-btc-5m-market
cargo build --release

Binary: target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot

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Configuration

Copy or create config.json in the project root. Structure:

{
  "polymarket": {
    "gamma_api_url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com",
    "clob_api_url": "https://clob.polymarket.com",
    "api_key": "YOUR_API_KEY",
    "api_secret": "YOUR_API_SECRET",
    "api_passphrase": "YOUR_PASSPHRASE",
    "private_key": "YOUR_POLYGON_PRIVATE_KEY_HEX", //consider about signature type carefully
    "proxy_wallet_address": "0x...",
    "signature_type": 2,
    "ws_url": "wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com"
  },
  "strategy": {
    "sum_threshold": 0.99,
    "shares": 5,
    "verify_fill_secs": 10,
    "simulation_mode": true,
    "price_to_beat_delay_secs": 30,
    "price_to_beat_poll_interval_secs": 10
  }
}

Field	Description
sum_threshold	Max sum of (15m one side ask + 5m opposite ask) to trigger arb (e.g. 0.99).
shares	Size in shares per leg.
verify_fill_secs	Seconds to wait before checking if both orders filled.
simulation_mode	If true, no real orders are placed.
price_to_beat_delay_secs	Seconds after market start before polling price-to-beat (e.g. 30).
price_to_beat_poll_interval_secs	Poll interval for price-to-beat (e.g. 10).

Do not commit real API keys or private_key; use env vars or a secrets manager in production.

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Usage

Run the arbitrage bot (uses config.json by default):

cargo run --release
# or
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot

Custom config path:

./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot -c /path/to/config.json

Redeem winning positions (proxy wallet):

./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem
# optional: specific condition
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem --condition_id 0x...

Logging: set RUST_LOG (e.g. RUST_LOG=info or RUST_LOG=debug).

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Risk Management

• One leg filled — After the verification delay, if only one order is filled, the bot sells that token (market) and cancels the other order to avoid holding a one-sided position.
• Neither filled — Both orders are cancelled.
• Simulation — Use simulation_mode: true to test without sending real orders.

Trading prediction markets and crypto carries risk; only use funds you can afford to lose.

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Disclaimer

This bot is for educational and research purposes. Polymarket and crypto prediction markets are volatile. The authors are not responsible for any financial loss. Use at your own risk and comply with your jurisdiction’s laws and Polymarket’s terms of service.

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Contact

• Telegram: crellos_0x (crellOS)

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Keywords

Polymarket arbitrage bot · Bitcoin 15 minute 5 minute market · BTC prediction market trading · Rust trading bot · Polymarket WebSocket · price to beat · crypto prediction market automation