Polymarket Arbitrage Bot

A Rust-based arbitrage bot for Polymarket that monitors SOL and BTC 15-minute price prediction markets and executes trades when arbitrage opportunities are detected.

How It Works

The bot continuously monitors two markets:

• SOL 15-minute price change prediction market
• BTC 15-minute price change prediction market

Arbitrage Strategy

The bot looks for opportunities where the sum of two complementary tokens (one from each market) is less than $1.00.

Example:

• SOL Up token: $0.47
• BTC Down token: $0.40
• Total cost: $0.87
• Expected profit: $0.13 (when market closes, one token will be worth $1.00)

When such an opportunity is detected, the bot:

1. Purchases the Up token in the SOL market
2. Purchases the Down token in the BTC market
3. Waits for market resolution to realize profit

Results

Here's an example of an arbitrage trade executed by the bot:

Architecture

• API Client (api.rs): Handles communication with Polymarket's Gamma API and CLOB API
• Market Monitor (monitor.rs): Continuously fetches market data for both SOL and BTC markets
• Arbitrage Detector (arbitrage.rs): Analyzes prices and identifies arbitrage opportunities
• Trader (trader.rs): Executes trades in simulation or production mode

Setup

1. Install Rust (if not already installed):

   curl --proto '=https' --tlsv1.2 -sSf https://sh.rustup.rs | sh

2. Build the project:

   cargo build --release

3. Configure the bot:

   • Edit config.json (created on first run) or use command-line arguments
   • Set sol_condition_id and btc_condition_id if you know them
   • Otherwise, the bot will attempt to discover them automatically

Usage

Simulation Mode (Default)

Test the bot without executing real trades:

cargo run -- --simulation

Production Mode

Execute real trades (requires API key):

cargo run -- --no-simulation

Configuration Options

• --simulation / --no-simulation: Toggle simulation mode
• --config <path>: Specify config file path (default: config.json)

Configuration File

The bot creates a config.json file on first run with the following structure:

{
  "polymarket": {
    "gamma_api_url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com",
    "clob_api_url": "https://clob.polymarket.com",
    "ws_url": "wss://clob-ws.polymarket.com",
    "api_key": null
  },
  "trading": {
    "min_profit_threshold": 0.01,
    "max_position_size": 100.0,
    "sol_condition_id": null,
    "btc_condition_id": null,
    "check_interval_ms": 1000
  }
}

Important Settings:

• min_profit_threshold: Minimum profit (in dollars) required to execute a trade
• max_position_size: Maximum amount to invest per trade
• check_interval_ms: How often to check for opportunities (in milliseconds)
• api_key: Your Polymarket API key (required for production mode)

How the Bot Detects Opportunities

1. Market Discovery: The bot searches for active SOL and BTC 15-minute markets using Polymarket's Gamma API
2. Price Monitoring: Continuously fetches order book data to get current ask prices for Up/Down tokens
3. Arbitrage Calculation: For each combination (SOL Up + BTC Down, SOL Down + BTC Up), calculates total cost
4. Opportunity Detection: If total cost < $1.00 and profit >= min_profit_threshold, executes trade
5. Trade Execution: Places simultaneous buy orders for both tokens

Notes

• The bot runs continuously until stopped (Ctrl+C)
• In simulation mode, all trades are logged but not executed
• The bot automatically discovers condition IDs if not provided in config
• Make sure you have sufficient balance and API permissions for production trading