Polymarket Trading Bot – BTC (&ETH) Binary Markets

Rust trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. Trades BTC and ETH binary (Up/Down) markets (15m and 1h) using outcome prices (win probabilities from Gamma) and token price trend. Places batches of limit orders on the side that is both winning by outcome price and rising in price over N datapoints.

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Features

• Dual timeframe: Trades 15m and 1h binary markets for BTC and ETH on Polymarket.
• Lock rule: Buys the opposite side only when cost per pair stays under your cap (e.g. Up_avg + Down_ask ≤ 0.99), so you lock in edge.
• Expansion rule: When you can’t lock (cost would exceed max) but the other side is rising and its outcome PnL is worse, the bot buys that side to improve exposure (see logic.md).
• Ride the winner: When one side is clearly winning (trend UpRising/DownRising), the bot adds to that side to grow “PnL if that side wins.”
• PnL rebalance: If one outcome’s PnL is negative and you’re not strongly trending the other way, it buys the weak side (within cost limits).
• Flat = no trade: When the short-term trend is Flat (no clear move), the bot only locks if conditions allow; otherwise it does not open new risk (Example 6 in logic.md).
• 1h throttle: Configurable cooldown for 1h markets (e.g. 30–45s between buys) to avoid overtrading.
• Simulation mode: Run with --simulation (default) to log trades without sending orders.
• Market resolution: Checks for closed markets, computes actual PnL, and logs “Total actual PnL (all time).”
• Timestamped logs: Price feed and history lines include [YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SS] for easier debugging and backtesting.

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Strategy Overview

The bot keeps positions per market (Up shares, Down shares, average prices). Each tick it:

1. Updates trend from the last 4–5 price points (UpRising, DownRising, Flat, UpFalling, DownFalling).
2. Lock: If adding the underweight side keeps cost per pair ≤ cost_per_pair_max → buy that side (lock).
3. Expansion: If you can’t lock (cost would exceed max) but the other side is rising and “PnL if that side wins” is worse → buy that side (new leg / rebalance).
4. Ride winner: If trend is UpRising or DownRising (and not Flat) → buy the rising side (within cost and buy limits).
5. PnL rebalance: If one outcome’s PnL is negative and trend isn’t strongly the other way → buy the weak side (within limits).
6. Trend fallback: DownFalling → can buy Up; UpFalling → can buy Down (no buy on Flat except lock).

Detailed examples (no position, only Up, only Down, have both, Flat, market close) are in logic.md.

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Requirements

• Rust 1.70+ (rustc --version)
• Polymarket API credentials (API key, secret, passphrase, and optionally private key / proxy wallet for live trading)

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Installation

git clone https://github.com/cakaroni/polymarket-trading-bot-btc-15m.git
cd polymarket-trading-bot-btc-15m
cargo build --release

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Configuration

Copy the example config and edit with your settings:

cp config.example.json config.json
# Edit config.json with your Polymarket API keys and trading parameters

Important: config.json is gitignored. Do not commit real API keys.

Trading options (in config.json → trading)

Option	Description	Example
markets	Assets to trade	["btc", "eth"]
timeframes	Periods	["15m", "1h"]
trend_datapoints	Number of price points to confirm "rising" trend	7
trend_datapoints_extended	Longer window when market unclear (reserved)	15
batch_count	Number of limit orders per batch	5
shares_per_limit_order	Shares per limit order in batch	30
limit_order_price_offset_down	Price offset for Down orders (e.g. −0.02)	-0.02
cancel_unmatched_after_secs	Cancel placed limit orders after N s (production only); 0 = never	120
min_side_price	Don’t place orders below this ask	0.05
max_side_price	Don’t place orders above this ask	0.99
market_closure_check_interval_seconds	How often to check for resolved markets	20

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Usage

Simulation (no real orders):

cargo run -- --simulation
# or
cargo run --release -- --simulation

Live trading (sends FAK orders to Polymarket):

cargo run --release -- --production --config config.json

Redeem winnings for a resolved market:

cargo run --release -- --redeem --condition-id <CONDITION_ID>

Logs go to history.toml (and your configured log target). Price lines look like:

[2026-02-04T23:17:23] BTC 15m Up Token BID:$0.52 ASK:$0.53 Down Token BID:$0.47 ASK:$0.48 remaining time:12m 34s

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Project structure

.
├── Cargo.toml
├── config.json          # Your config (gitignored); use config.example.json as template
├── logic.md              # Legacy strategy examples (reference)
├── history.toml          # Append-only trade/price log (gitignored in default .gitignore)
├── src/
│   ├── main.rs           # CLI, config load, monitor + trader spawn
│   ├── config.rs         # Config and defaults
│   ├── api.rs            # Polymarket Gamma + CLOB API (markets/slug, limit orders, cancel)
│   ├── monitor.rs        # Price feed + Gamma outcome prices, snapshot, timestamps
│   ├── trader.rs         # Outcome-price + trend → batch limit orders; cancel unmatched
│   └── models.rs         # API and market data types (incl. outcome prices)
└── README.md

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Disclaimer

This bot is for educational and research purposes. Trading prediction markets involves risk. Past behavior in simulation or backtests does not guarantee future results. Use at your own risk. The authors are not responsible for any financial loss.

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Contact

For questions, support, or collaboration around this Polymarket trading bot, reach out via Telegram.

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Keywords (for search)

Polymarket trading bot, Polymarket bot, Polymarket automation, crypto prediction market bot, BTC prediction market, ETH binary options, Polymarket CLOB, Polymarket API, prediction market hedging, binary market bot, Rust Polymarket, Polymarket 15m, Polymarket 1h, Polymarket arbitrage, Polymarket hedging bot.