Floating Experiment - Italy 2010 Forecasting Experiment

Overview

This repository contains the complete Italy 2010 Experiment definition (Schorlemmer et al., 2010), input data (catalog and forecasts), methods, artifacts and results (Iturrieta et al., 2024) to be reproduced. The experiment was conducted using the floatCSEP and pyCSEP for most of the testing routines, along with R to perform the spatial statistics analyses.

Install

• Set up Python and Conda using the Miniforge or MiniConda distributions, following the instructions in the links.

• Create the working environment

  mamba env create -f environment.yml -y

  replace mamba with conda if MiniConda rather than Miniforge was installed.

• Activate the environment

  conda activate float_italy

Run

The numerical results should be generated first, and after the Iturrieta et al., (2024) figures can be reproduced. The experiment source code is divided into three:

• The experiment of a single, ten-year time window. Here are found all the consistency tests, rankings and comparison tests. The source code is located in the src/total folder. Here, the results can be obtained from a bash console as:

  cd src/total
  floatcsep run config.yml

  or the exact results reproduced with:

  cd src/total/results
  floatcsep reproduce repr_config.yml

• The experiment of multiple, one-year cumulative time windows, which contain the sequential rankings. The source code is located in the src/sequential folder. The code can be run as:

  cd src/sequential
  floatcsep run config.yml

  or the results reproduced with:

  cd src/sequential/results
  floatcsep reproduce config.yml

• The analysis of spatial performance using second-order statistics, i.e. Ripley-type metricsm, can be reproduced using a Docker container. Docker can be installed following the instructions from [https://docs.docker.com/engine/install/]. Please check the instructions in src/ripley/README.md for more details.

Figure generation

The figures of the Iturrieta et al., 2024 manuscript can be reproducing using the source code found in the folder figures/. These codes should be run once the corresponding results have been calculated.

References

• Schorlemmer, Danijel, et al. "Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy." Annals of Geophysics (2010).
• Taroni, Matteo, et al. "Prospective CSEP evaluation of 1‐day, 3‐month, and 5‐yr earthquake forecasts for Italy." Seismological Research Letters 89.4 (2018): 1251-1261.
• Iturrieta, Pablo, et al. "Evaluating a decade-long forecasting experiment in Italy." Seismological Research Letters (2024).