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pyCSEP Pull Request Checklist

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Summary

Add support for alarm-based earthquake forecast evaluation, including temporal (time-series) alarm-based forecasts. This introduces functions for loading, evaluating, and visualizing alarm-based forecasts using ROC curves and Molchan diagrams.

New Features

  • csep.load_alarm_forecast() - Load alarm-based forecasts from CSV
  • csep.load_temporal_forecast() - Load temporal probability sequences
  • csep.compute_temporal_observations() - Compute binary observations from catalog
  • plots.plot_temporal_ROC_diagram() - Temporal ROC evaluation
  • plots.plot_temporal_Molchan_diagram() - Temporal Molchan evaluation

Documentation

  • Added "Alarm-based forecasts" and "Temporal alarm-based forecasts" sections to docs/concepts/forecasts.rst
  • Added "Alarm-based forecast evaluations" section to docs/concepts/evaluations.rst
  • New tutorial: docs/tutorials/alarm_forecast_evaluation.rst

Examples

  • examples/tutorials/alarm_forecast_demo.py - Complete alarm forecast demo with GeoNet
  • examples/tutorials/temporal_evaluation/ - Multi-model temporal comparison example

Type of change:

  • New feature (non-breaking change which adds functionality)
  • This change requires a documentation update

Checklist:

  • I have performed a self-review of my own code
  • I have commented my code, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I have made corresponding changes to the documentation
  • My changes generate no new warnings
  • I have added tests that prove my fix is effective or that my feature works
  • New and existing unit tests pass locally with my changes

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