Integration Example [WIP]

[AMonninger]

Example notebook of Constructing End of Period (Marginal) Value Function using Transitionmatrices instead of Expectations.

This example notebook tests the idea of @mnwhite . So far, the two methods do NOT construct the same function. Could @mnwhite check for conceptual/ coding errors?

Please ensure your pull request adheres to the following guidelines:

• Tests for new functionality/models or Tests to reproduce the bug-fix in code.
• [x ] Updated documentation of features that add new functionality.
• Update CHANGELOG.md with major/minor changes.

[mnwhite]

I'll take a look at this later today or early tomorrow.

[mnwhite]

@AMonninger I just pushed a commit that revises the notebook. The method works as intended now, and displays comparisons at the bottom. Important changes that I put in (there might be more):

• You either need to implement an artificial borrowing constraint OR include a tiny probability of zero income. I put in UnempPrb=1e-10. Without this, the minimum allowable bNrm will vary between the two methods.
• The mNrmGrid and bNrmGrid had incorrect offsets. This is critical.
• Small, but helped with debugging: use different grid sizes for b and m so you can verify dimensions
• Did some variable relabeling to make it more accurate
• You were post-multiplying, not pre-multiplying
• Need to use the "pseudo-inverse trick" when representing the interim marginal value function
• And needs to have a point added at 0 (or fix this to generalize it).

The consumption functions constructed by the two integration methods now match as expected. The one using the new integration method is always a little lower than the old one, especially in the highly concave region of the cFunc. This is because the new method incorporates more uncertainty than the old one: as long as the theoretical probability of getting to some m from some b is positive, it is included in the expectation. That's not the case with a fixed set of integration nodes.

Take a look at the notebook and let me know if you want to meet to discuss. I didn't fix all typos or style issues.

[llorracc]

Cool! Looking forward to hearing about this-Fri? Sent from Gmail Mobile

…

On Tue, May 28, 2024 at 5:23 PM Matthew N. White ***@***.***> wrote: @AMonninger <https://github.com/AMonninger> I just pushed a commit that revises the notebook. The method works as intended now, and displays comparisons at the bottom. Important changes that I put in (there might be more): - You either need to implement an artificial borrowing constraint *OR* include a tiny probability of zero income. I put in UnempPrb=1e-10. Without this, the minimum allowable bNrm will vary between the two methods. - The mNrmGrid and bNrmGrid had incorrect offsets. This is critical. - Small, but helped with debugging: use different grid sizes for b and m so you can verify dimensions - Did some variable relabeling to make it more accurate - You were post-multiplying, not pre-multiplying - Need to use the "pseudo-inverse trick" when representing the interim marginal value function - And needs to have a point added at 0 (or fix this to generalize it). The consumption functions constructed by the two integration methods now match as expected. The one using the new integration method is always *a little lower* than the old one, especially in the highly concave region of the cFunc. This is because the new method incorporates more uncertainty than the old one: as long as the theoretical probability of getting to some m from some b is positive, it is included in the expectation. That's not the case with a fixed set of integration nodes. Take a look at the notebook and let me know if you want to meet to discuss. I didn't fix all typos or style issues. — Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#1434 (comment)>, or unsubscribe <https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AAKCK72BWUZ62I6Y5YNZC7LZETYUVAVCNFSM6AAAAABINBOSWKVHI2DSMVQWIX3LMV43OSLTON2WKQ3PNVWWK3TUHMZDCMZWGEZTIMZSGI> . You are receiving this because you are subscribed to this thread.Message ID: ***@***.***>

[AMonninger]

@mnwhite Thank you so much. Those changes are brilliant!
But if I understood you correctly, the method only works without Unemployment Probability (eg no pointmass of the pdf at 0/'IncUnemp'). Is there a way to circumvent that limitation?

[llorracc]

In place of the pointmass for unemployment: 1. Impose a strict liquidity constraint 2. You can do a "mixture of normals" in which income in the unemployment state is distributed normally at, say, half the level of permanent income and with a density of 0.05 or something like that.

…

On Wed, May 29, 2024 at 12:52 PM Adrian Monninger ***@***.***> wrote: @mnwhite <https://github.com/mnwhite> Thank you so much. Those changes are brilliant! But if I understood you correctly, the method only works without Unemployment Probability (eg no pointmass of the pdf at 0/'IncUnemp'). Is there a way to circumvent that limitation? — Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#1434 (comment)>, or unsubscribe <https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AAKCK73NRYTNJ3ZP5CM62P3ZEYBT5AVCNFSM6AAAAABINBOSWKVHI2DSMVQWIX3LMV43OSLTON2WKQ3PNVWWK3TUHMZDCMZXHA3DCMZXG4> . You are receiving this because you commented.Message ID: ***@***.***>

-- - Chris Carroll

[mnwhite]

Yes, what Chris suggests will absolutely work: just make "unemployment income" have a continuous distribution with non-trivial stdev. In the current (unreleased, but will be released soon) version of HARK, you just need to make an alternate version of the IncShkDstn constructor that takes additional parameters (which also need to be used to construct the big transition matrix). It might still be best to specify UnempPrb = 1e-12, even if you put a hard borrowing constraint. When transitory shocks are integrated as if they could go all the way down to zero, the natural borrowing constraint will be zero anyway. The "tiny zero income event" just reduces some potential headaches from adapting the solver for the new method. On Wed, May 29, 2024 at 5:39 PM Christopher Llorracc Carroll < ***@***.***> wrote:

…

In place of the pointmass for unemployment: 1. Impose a strict liquidity constraint 2. You can do a "mixture of normals" in which income in the unemployment state is distributed normally at, say, half the level of permanent income and with a density of 0.05 or something like that. On Wed, May 29, 2024 at 12:52 PM Adrian Monninger ***@***.***> wrote: > @mnwhite <https://github.com/mnwhite> Thank you so much. Those changes > are brilliant! > But if I understood you correctly, the method only works without > Unemployment Probability (eg no pointmass of the pdf at 0/'IncUnemp'). Is > there a way to circumvent that limitation? > > — > Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub > <#1434 (comment)>, or > unsubscribe > < https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AAKCK73NRYTNJ3ZP5CM62P3ZEYBT5AVCNFSM6AAAAABINBOSWKVHI2DSMVQWIX3LMV43OSLTON2WKQ3PNVWWK3TUHMZDCMZXHA3DCMZXG4> > . > You are receiving this because you commented.Message ID: > ***@***.***> > -- - Chris Carroll — Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#1434 (comment)>, or unsubscribe <https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/ADKRAFKQTK5RYUTJVGVZ3ULZEZDJ5AVCNFSM6AAAAABINBOSWKVHI2DSMVQWIX3LMV43OSLTON2WKQ3PNVWWK3TUHMZDCMZYGMYDMOBTGQ> . You are receiving this because you were mentioned.Message ID: ***@***.***>

[mnwhite]

I am going to work on this. We liked it, and then it fell off the map.